Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd stock ZAR 8.66, price ZAR 9.80, that is 11.6% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R2.83 – R9.80 · fair‑value band R6.50 – R10.83 · the R9.80 price screens above the R8.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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GAIA Infrastructure Capital Limited is a blank check company. The company was formerly known as Gaia Capital Proprietary Limited. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in South Africa.
Stock analysis
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) currently trades at R9.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R8.66, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: R6.50 (bear) to R10.83 (bull), the price of R9.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2020: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2020.
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd reported revenue of 23.4M ZAR in FY2026 versus 56.7M ZAR in FY2022, a compound −19.8%/yr. Reported net income was −21.2M ZAR in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap 540M ZAR Micro · EPS (TTM) R−0.3800 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin −90.6% · Return on equity −3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 841% · Revenue (TTM) −1.0M ZAR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 11 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 144% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −12%, MHB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR6.50Fair Value R8.66BullR10.83
Price R9.80 · Downside -11.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2020: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2020.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.0% (2021) → −90.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.0% a year for the price.
Compare Mahube Infrastructure Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 587 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−11.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−3.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−90.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−27.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R8.66 versus a price of R9.80, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MHB?
Our model-based fair value for Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is R8.66 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R9.80.
What is the quality score of MHB?
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R8.66 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario R6.50, optimistic scenario R10.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mahube Infrastructure Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R8.66, about 12% lower versus a price of R9.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R6.50, optimistic scenario R10.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Mahube Infrastructure Ltd pay a dividend?
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.49% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd has a dividend yield of 2.5%.
What growth is priced into Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mahube Infrastructure Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +30.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -16.1 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MHB use?
Our models discount Mahube Infrastructure Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mahube Infrastructure Ltd that is +30.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd grew -16.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +30.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (+30.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.27 %: that much free cash flow Mahube Infrastructure Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mahube Infrastructure Ltd it is R8.66 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of R9.80. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Mahube Infrastructure Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, MHB trades above its calculated fair value: price R9.80, fair value R8.66, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MHB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R9.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R8.66). For Mahube Infrastructure Ltd the two are R1.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mahube Infrastructure Ltd worth?
The market values Mahube Infrastructure Ltd at about 540M ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is R9.80; our models calculate a fair value of R8.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MHB?
Our models span a range for Mahube Infrastructure Ltd: cautious scenario R6.50, base R8.66, optimistic R10.83 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price R9.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −3.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MHB from its 52-week high?
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd trades at R9.80, at its 52-week high of R9.80 and 144% above the low of R4.01 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R8.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mahube Infrastructure Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mahube Infrastructure Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price R9.80, calculated fair value R8.66 (−12%), Quality Score 61/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MHB calculated?
We run Mahube Infrastructure Ltd through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R8.66 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mahube Infrastructure Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was R9.80. Our model-based fair value is R8.66, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mahube Infrastructure Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) come from?
Earnings per share at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd grew +10.1 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.7 %, EBIT margin +4.3 %, tax rate +2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The market capitalisation of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is 540M ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Earnings per share at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd are R−0.3800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The dividend yield of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is 2.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The net margin of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is −90.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is −3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The operating margin of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is 841% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) generate?
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd generates revenue of −1.0M ZAR (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Revenue at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is growing −27.0% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Earnings per share at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd are growing +41.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) hold?
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd holds more cash than debt, 13.2M ZAR net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 9, 2026