GAIA Infrastructure Capital Limited (MHB) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · ZA · Market cap 243M ZAC
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from R2.09 to R2.05 (−1.9%) since Jun 26, 2026.
A solid business, but screening 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R2.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (R1.15 to R2.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R0.0345 – R6.25 · fair‑value band R1.15 – R2.80 · the R4.19 price screens above the R2.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
GAIA Infrastructure Capital Limited (MHB) currently trades at R4.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R2.05, implying the stock looks roughly 51.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Revenue declined 27.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 13.2M ZAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R1.15 (bear case) to R2.80 (bull case); at R4.19, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -51%, MHB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (R8.66) versus Asset-Based (R6.83). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
GAIA Infrastructure Capital Limited is a blank check company. The company was formerly known as Gaia Capital Proprietary Limited. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
GAIA Infrastructure Capital Limited reported revenue of R23.4M in FY2026 versus R56.7M in FY2022, a compound −19.8%/yr. Reported net income was −R21.2M in FY2026.
of which total revenue +2.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MHB screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Fondul Proprietatea SA →
Peer Group
Asset Management · 970 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,136 | $465.75 | -59% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 423.70 | kr 847.40 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 320.98 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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