Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd ZAR 8.66, price ZAR 5.11, upside +69.5%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R2.83 – R6.25 · fair‑value band R6.50 – R10.83 · the R5.11 price screens below the R8.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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GAIA Infrastructure Capital Limited is a blank check company. The company was formerly known as Gaia Capital Proprietary Limited. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in South Africa.
Stock analysis
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) currently trades at R5.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R8.66, implying the stock looks roughly 41.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 10 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: R6.50 (bear) to R10.83 (bull), the price of R5.11 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd reported revenue of 23.4M ZAR in FY2026 versus 56.7M ZAR in FY2022, a compound −19.8%/yr. Reported net income was −21.2M ZAR in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap 282M ZAC · EPS (TTM) R−0.3800 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin −90.6% · Return on equity −3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 841% · Revenue (TTM) −1.0M ZAC.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 69%, MHB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R6.50Fair Value R8.66Bull R10.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.0% (2021) → −90.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price.
Compare Mahube Infrastructure Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 656 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+70% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−91% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−27% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R8.66 versus a price of R5.11, about +69% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MHB?
Our model-based fair value for Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is R8.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R5.11.
What is the quality score of MHB?
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R8.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario R6.50, optimistic scenario R10.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mahube Infrastructure Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R8.66, about +69% upside versus a price of R5.11 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R6.50, optimistic scenario R10.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Mahube Infrastructure Ltd pay a dividend?
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mahube Infrastructure Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +16.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -16.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MHB use?
Our models discount Mahube Infrastructure Ltd at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mahube Infrastructure Ltd that is +16.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd grew -16.1 % a year. The price currently implies +16.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (+16.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.35 %: that much free cash flow Mahube Infrastructure Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mahube Infrastructure Ltd it is R8.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R5.11. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mahube Infrastructure Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MHB trades below its calculated fair value: price R5.11, fair value R8.66, a gap of about +69% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MHB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R5.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R8.66). For Mahube Infrastructure Ltd the two are R3.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mahube Infrastructure Ltd worth?
The market values Mahube Infrastructure Ltd at about 282M ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R5.11; our models calculate a fair value of R8.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MHB?
Our models span a range for Mahube Infrastructure Ltd: cautious scenario R6.50, base R8.66, optimistic R10.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R5.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MHB from its 52-week high?
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd trades at R5.11, about 18% below its 52-week high of R6.25 and 27% above the low of R4.01 (as of Sep 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R8.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mahube Infrastructure Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mahube Infrastructure Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R5.11, calculated fair value R8.66 (+69%), Quality Score 62/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MHB calculated?
We run Mahube Infrastructure Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R8.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Mahube Infrastructure Ltd currently trades 69 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was R5.11. Our model-based fair value is R8.66, about +69% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mahube Infrastructure Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R6.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) come from?
Earnings per share at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd grew +10.1 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.7 %, EBIT margin +4.3 %, tax rate +2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The market capitalisation of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is 282M ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Earnings per share at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd are R−0.3800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The dividend yield of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is 3.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The net margin of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is −90.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is −3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
The operating margin of Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is 841% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) generate?
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd generates revenue of −1.0M ZAC (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Revenue at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd is growing −27.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB)?
Earnings per share at Mahube Infrastructure Ltd are growing +41.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Mahube Infrastructure Ltd (MHB) hold?
Mahube Infrastructure Ltd holds more cash than debt, 13.2M ZAC net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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