Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Avita Medical Ltd stock $13.29, price $17.65, that is 24.7% below the price, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.27 – $20.90 · fair‑value band $9.97 – $16.62 · the $17.65 price screens above the $13.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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AVITA Medical, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a therapeutic acute wound care company in the United States, Japan, the European Union, Australia, and the United Kingdom.
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The company's lead product is the RECELL System, a cell harvesting device used for the treatment of thermal burn wounds and full-thickness skin defects, as well as for repigmentation of stable depigmented vitiligo lesions.
It also provides RECALL autologous cell harvesting device, which can treat areas of up to 1,920 cm2; RECELL autologous cell harvesting device with ease-of-use, an enhanced ease-of-use device that can treat areas of up to 1,920 cm²; and RECELL GO mini autologous cell harvesting device, a line extension of the RECELL GO system to treat smaller wounds up to 480 cm2, as well as RECELL GO autologous cell harvesting device consisting of RECELL GO processing device, which controls and manages the pressure applied to disaggregate the donor skin cells and controls the incubation time of the RECELL Enzyme to optimize cell yield and promote cell viability; and RECELL GO preparation kit, which can treat areas up to 1,920 cm2.
In addition, the company sells and distributes PermeaDerm, a biosynthetic wound matrix and Cohealyx, a collagen-based dermal matrix. It serves hospitals, treatment centers, and distributors.
The company was formerly known as AVITA Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to AVITA Medical, Inc. in December 2020. AVITA Medical, Inc. is headquartered in Valencia, California.
Stock analysis
Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL) currently trades at $17.65, while our estimate is $13.29, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.
Scenario range: $9.97 (bear) to $16.62 (bull), the price of $17.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Avita Medical Ltd reported revenue of A$71.6M in FY2025 versus A$33.0M in FY2021, a compound +21.3%/yr. Reported net income was −A$48.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $543M Small · P/S ratio 6.35 · EPS (TTM) $−1.21 · Net margin −42.7% · Return on equity −1,746% · Return on assets (EBIT) −47.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin −10.1% · Revenue (TTM) $84.7M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 440% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −25%, RCEL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value
Bear$9.97Fair Value $13.29Bull$16.62
Price $17.65 · Downside -24.7%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality34/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability49
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth54
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow3
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength20
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment99
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum100
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $213,540, most recently on Jun 12, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyDavid D O'TooleCFO5× since Feb 19, 2026: 10,800 shares, avg. $4.26$45,994Jun 12, 2026
BuyJoseph Fralin WoodyDirector4× since Jun 1, 2026: 45,200 shares, avg. $4.17$188,600Jun 9, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+67.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +48.8% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−458.2% (2020) → −58.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 402 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−24.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−86.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−42.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−10.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)53.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)6.41× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 44
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avita Medical Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RCEL
Frequently asked questions
Is Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $13.29 versus a price of $17.65, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RCEL?
Our estimate for Avita Medical Ltd is $13.29 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.65.
What is the quality score of RCEL?
Avita Medical Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $13.29 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Cautious scenario $9.97, optimistic scenario $16.62. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Avita Medical Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $13.29, about 25% lower versus a price of $17.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.97, optimistic scenario $16.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
Avita Medical Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $84.7M (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avita Medical Ltd it is $13.29 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $17.65.
Is Avita Medical Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, RCEL trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.65, fair value $13.29, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RCEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.29). For Avita Medical Ltd the two are $4.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avita Medical Ltd worth?
The market values Avita Medical Ltd at about $543M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $17.65; our models calculate a fair value of $13.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RCEL?
Our models span a range for Avita Medical Ltd: cautious scenario $9.97, base $13.29, optimistic $16.62 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $17.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avita Medical Ltd (as of Nov 11, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RCEL from its 52-week high?
Avita Medical Ltd trades at $17.65, at its 52-week high of $17.65 and 440% above the low of $3.27 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avita Medical Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avita Medical Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $17.65, calculated fair value $13.29 (−25%), Quality Score 34/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Avita Medical Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $17.65. Our estimate is $13.29, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avita Medical Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Avita Medical Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
The market capitalisation of Avita Medical Ltd is $543M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avita Medical Ltd is 6.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
Earnings per share at Avita Medical Ltd are $−1.21. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
The net margin of Avita Medical Ltd is −42.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avita Medical Ltd is −1,746% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avita Medical Ltd is −47.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
The operating margin of Avita Medical Ltd is −10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)?
Revenue at Avita Medical Ltd is growing +53.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL) generate?
The free cash flow of Avita Medical Ltd is −$32.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL) carry?
The net debt of Avita Medical Ltd is $35.8M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 11, 2026
