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Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Treace Medical Concepts Inc stock $4.28, price $4.88, that is 12.3% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

TM Treace Medical Concepts Inc logo Thin data Nov 11, 2026

Treace Medical Concepts Inc

TMCI · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 12% below what the stock costs today.

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +30.0 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
Insiders bought $1.2M (6M)
Fair value $4.28 · Overvalued
Quality 36/100
Loss-making · -29.0% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/10)
Narrow moat 12/100 · thin data
Negative coverage
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$29.99 $1.20 Fair Value $4.28 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.20 – $29.99 · fair‑value band $3.21 – $5.35 · the $4.88 price screens above the $4.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.

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Company profile

Treace Medical Concepts, Inc., a medical technology company, designs, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States.

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The company offers Lapiplasty System, enables surgeons to correct all three dimensions of the bunion deformity, stabilize the first TMT joint, and allow return to weight-bearing in a walking boot; minimally invasive products for four bunion classes; Nanoplasty 3D Minimally Invasive Bunion Correction System delivers a reproducible 3D correction of the bunion deformity through a cosmetically appealing; and Percuplasty Percutaneous 3D Bunion Correction System that provides 3D correction of the bunion deformity through percutaneous incisions.

It also provides Adductoplasty System, a system designed for the correction of metatarsus adductus deformities and osteoarthritis of the midfoot; SpeedMTP Rapid Compression Implant; SpeedPlate Implant Fixation Platform to address the fusion of larger bones of the midfoot and rearfoot; SpeedPlate Micro-Quad implant, an implant designed for stability and fit in small incision surgical approaches; and SpeedAkin Anatomic Compression Implant.

In addition, the company offers The IntelliGuide patient specific instrumentation provides patient-specific, 3D-printed cut guides, and a pre-operative plan for a complete picture of the deformity and correction.

Further, it provides FastGrafter Autografter Harvesting System; SpeedRelease Guided Release Instrument; TriTome Triple-Edge Release Instrument; RazorTome 7mm Precision Osteotome; LapiTome Hooked Bone Removal Osteotome; GreatRelease Rapid MTP Release Instrument; CornerChisel Release Tool; NanoRasp MIS Bone Contouring Tool; FeatherRasp Rapid Bone Contouring Instrument; and Akinator Single-cut Akin Wedge Osteotomy tool.

Additionally, the company offers biologics and wedges, such as Treace Allograft Wedges; and CortiFuse Flowable Cortical Fibers. Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Ponte Vedra, Florida.

Stock analysis

Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI) currently trades at $4.88, while our estimate is $4.28, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $3.21 (bear) to $5.35 (bull), the price of $4.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Treace Medical Concepts Inc reported revenue of $213M in FY2025 versus $94.4M in FY2021, a compound +22.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$59.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $317M Small · P/S ratio 1.53 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8500 · Net margin −29.0% · Return on equity −72.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −21.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −33.0% · Revenue (TTM) $205M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 307% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −12%, TMCI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $3.21 Fair Value $4.28 Bull $5.35
Price $4.88 · Downside -12.3%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 37
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 38
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 60
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 9
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 59
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 70
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 56
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $1.2M, on Aug 24, 2026.

  • BuyJohn T. TreaceChief Executive Officer, Director, 10% owner5× since May 12, 2026: 399,833 shares, avg. $3.10$1.2MAug 24, 2026

Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.5% (2020) → −25.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TMCI screens overvalued: fair value 12% below the price. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 402 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −12.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −31.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −29.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −33.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −4.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.64× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.63× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 1.55× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)17 · sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 44
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)68 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 34

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 ¥178.92 ¥202.57 +13% vs TMCI
DexCom, Inc DXCM $79.92 $89.18 +12% vs TMCI
Stryker Corporation SYK $324.29 $358.30 +10% vs TMCI
STERIS plc STE $257.12 $279.53 +9% vs TMCI
Boston Scientific Corporation BSX $44.70 $48.42 +8% vs TMCI
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc GEHC $83.65 $69.92 −16% vs TMCI
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW $104.01 $81.94 −21% vs TMCI
Abbott Laboratories, ABT $110.46 $75.28 −32% vs TMCI
Medtronic plc MDT $101.59 $65.61 −35% vs TMCI
Koninklijke Philips N.V PHIA €27.06 €15.23 −44% vs TMCI

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Treace Medical Concepts Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Treace Medical Concepts Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TMCI

Frequently asked questions

Is Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $4.28 versus a price of $4.88, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TMCI?
Our estimate for Treace Medical Concepts Inc is $4.28 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.88.
What is the quality score of TMCI?
Treace Medical Concepts Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $4.28 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Cautious scenario $3.21, optimistic scenario $5.35. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Treace Medical Concepts Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $4.28, about 12% lower versus a price of $4.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.21, optimistic scenario $5.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
Treace Medical Concepts Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $205M (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Treace Medical Concepts Inc it is $4.28 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $4.88.
Is Treace Medical Concepts Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, TMCI trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.88, fair value $4.28, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMCI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.28). For Treace Medical Concepts Inc the two are $0.6000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Treace Medical Concepts Inc worth?
The market values Treace Medical Concepts Inc at about $317M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $4.88; our models calculate a fair value of $4.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMCI?
Our models span a range for Treace Medical Concepts Inc: cautious scenario $3.21, base $4.28, optimistic $5.35 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $4.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Treace Medical Concepts Inc (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity −72.0%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TMCI from its 52-week high?
Treace Medical Concepts Inc trades at $4.88, about 4% below its 52-week high of $5.06 and 307% above the low of $1.20 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Treace Medical Concepts Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Treace Medical Concepts Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $4.88, calculated fair value $4.28 (−12%), Quality Score 36/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Treace Medical Concepts Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $4.88. Our estimate is $4.28, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Treace Medical Concepts Inc right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Treace Medical Concepts Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
The market capitalisation of Treace Medical Concepts Inc is $317M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Treace Medical Concepts Inc is 1.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
Earnings per share at Treace Medical Concepts Inc are $−0.8500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
The net margin of Treace Medical Concepts Inc is −29.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Treace Medical Concepts Inc is −72.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Treace Medical Concepts Inc is −21.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
The operating margin of Treace Medical Concepts Inc is −33.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI)?
Revenue at Treace Medical Concepts Inc is growing −4.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI) generate?
The free cash flow of Treace Medical Concepts Inc is −$29.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI) carry?
The net debt of Treace Medical Concepts Inc is $3.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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