STOCK COMPARISON
MTR Corp vs Union Pacific: Fair Value & Quality
Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how MTR Corp (0066) and Union Pacific (UNP) compare, as of Aug 8, 2026.
As of Aug 8, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees MTR Corp as the less overvalued of the two: MTR Corp trades at HK$32.34 versus a fair value of HK$17.85 (-45%), while Union Pacific trades at $295 versus $145 (-51%).
MTR Corp
0066.HK · HKD · Industrials
-45%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceHK$32.34
Fair ValueHK$17.85
Quality49/100
Union Pacific
UNP · USD · Industrials
-51%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$295
Fair Value$145
Quality72/100
Head-to-head numbers
Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).
MTR CorpUnion Pacific
Valuation
13.5×P/E (TTM)24.6×
3.57×P/S (TTM)7.25×
1.03×P/B9.70×
9.3×EV/EBITDA16.5×
0.68×PEG3.64×
4.2%Dividend yield1.8%
HK$1.31Dividend per share$5.48
Profitability
28%Net margin29%
37%Operating margin40%
8%Return on equity41%
3%Return on assets9%
Growth
-9%Revenue growth (YoY)3%
5.1%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-0.5%
5.4%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)4.6%
Balance & size
0.51×Debt / equity1.64×
$25BMarket cap$179B
expensiveGrowth qualityhealthy
MTR Corp leads: 9 to 5 metric wins.
Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.
Quality in detail
The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.
MTR Corpof which business quality 41 · market factors 62
Union Pacificof which business quality 63 · market factors 74
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
36
64
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
23
57
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
25
71
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
43
40
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
51
47
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
90
74
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
46
69
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
58
84
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
81
100
What the models say
The median fair value (base case) per model family, each in the currency of its trading venue. Green = above the current price, red = below.
MTR Corp
Earnings-BasedHK$14.66
Dividend DiscountHK$22.46
MultiplesHK$21.80
Asset-BasedHK$20.72
Economic ProfitHK$27.00
Growth EarningsHK$40.14
10 of 14 models see the stock below the current price.
Union Pacific
DCF Models$119
Earnings-Based$97.30
Multiples$162
Asset-Based$20.84
Growth DCF$80.61
Economic Profit$121
Growth Earnings$195
23 of 23 models see the stock below the current price.
Scenario ranges
From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.
MTR Corp
Bear HK$13.39Fair Value HK$17.85Bull HK$25.02
HK$32.34 = current price (white tick)
Union Pacific
Bear $89.73Fair Value $145Bull $266
$295 = current price (white tick)
Compare two other stocks
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Ranked within their sector
Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.
MTR Corp · Industrials
Quality score49 · below median
Fair value upside-45% · below median
Union Pacific · Industrials
Quality score72 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-51% · below median
Bottom line
As of Aug 8, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees MTR Corp as the less overvalued of the two: MTR Corp trades at HK$32.34 versus a fair value of HK$17.85 (-45%), while Union Pacific trades at $295 versus $145 (-51%).
Union Pacific has the higher quality score (72/100).
See the full analysis →
More comparisons
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A model-based valuation snapshot from 21 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.
