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Data-driven stock valuation

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Union Pacific Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Industrials · US · Market cap $179B · ISIN US9078181081

At a glance

UP Union Pacific Corporation logo Union Pacific Corporation UNP · US
Price$289.62
Fair Value$141.29
Upside−51.2%
Quality67/100

A solid business, but trading 105% above our fair value of $141.29.

As of Aug 30, 2026, the fair value of Union Pacific Corporation is $141.29 per share against a price of $289.62, so the fair value sits 51% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +4.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 29.2% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
·1.89% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/15)
✓Wide moat 89/100
!The models disagree: range $87.76 to $265.68
!Weak on future: 16 out of 100
!Weak on balance sheet: 18 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $87.76 to $265.68

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price −2.0% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($265.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($87.76 to $265.68). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$310.62 $170.93 Fair Value $141.29 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $170.93 – $310.62 · fair‑value band $87.76 – $265.68 · the $289.62 price screens above the $141.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

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Analysis

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) currently trades at $289.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $141.29, implying the stock looks roughly 105.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $204.37 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $289.62 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.84, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Union Pacific Corporation generated revenue of $24.7B at a net margin of 29.2%. Revenue grew 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 40.7%. Net debt stands at $30.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Scenario range: $87.76 (bear) to $265.68 (bull), the price of $289.62 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −51%, UNP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.62 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $49.74 $93.37 $155.53 78
Growth DCF $52.64 $93.24 $148.62 77
Owner Earnings $55.35 $101.46 $167.16 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $49.74 $93.37 $155.53 78
Owner Earnings $55.35 $101.46 $167.16 74
5Y Revenue Exit $17.99 $45.21 $77.99 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $99.54 $190.14 $291.66 73
5Y P/E Exit $92.47 $177.56 $262.46 69
10Y Revenue Exit $27.51 $54.02 $85.66 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $79.95 $151.95 $241.26 66
10Y P/E Exit $75.53 $143.45 $220.00 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $81.75 $190.91 $245.48 65
PEG = 1.0 $32.57 $46.53 $60.49 57
EPV $76.42 $97.30 $115.58 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $189.36 $252.48 $315.59 63
P/S Multiple $61.92 $82.57 $103.21 58
P/B Multiple $104.98 $139.97 $174.96 55
EV/EBIT $162.42 $232.85 $303.28 65
EV/EBITDA $153.18 $220.53 $287.88 67
EV/Revenue $3.14 $25.43 $47.72 47
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $15.55 $20.84 $31.10 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $52.64 $93.24 $148.62 77
Rev-Margin DCF $17.99 $46.70 $77.90 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $89.04 $131.13 $1,417 64
ROIC Compounder $81.32 $111.32 $144.48 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $143.06 $204.37 $265.68 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($204.37) versus Asset-Based ($20.84). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 23.9
P/S ratio 6.95 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $12.14 price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.9
Dividend yield 1.9% payout 45.1%
Net margin 29.1% FY2025
Return on equity 40.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 14.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 40.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $24.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.2% 3y avg −0.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +6.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $5.5B FY2025
Net debt $30.5B FY2025 · ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 64
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States.

Full company description

Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. It offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, and ethanol and renewable biofuel producers; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, petroleum, liquid petroleum gases, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Union Pacific Corporation reported revenue of $24.5B in FY2025 versus $21.8B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was $7.1B in FY2025, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$24.5B
Latest YoY
+1.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+9.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+7.5%
Dividend yield1.9%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 7.5% vs 10Y 8.2%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40.1% (2020) → 40.1% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop18% (2009) · in USD
Revenue +3.0%/yr
FY21 $21.8B
FY22 $24.9B
FY23 $24.1B
FY24 $24.3B
FY25 $24.5B
Net income +2.3%/yr
FY21 $6.5B
FY22 $7.0B
FY23 $6.4B
FY24 $6.7B
FY25 $7.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +8.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.3 %

of which total revenue +1.2 % · buybacks/dilution +4.1 %

EBIT margin +0.8 %
Tax rate +2.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

UNP screens 105% overvalued. Compare with CSX Corporation →

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Union Pacific Corporation · Fair Value
$141.29 −105%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Union Pacific Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UNP

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Railroads · 110 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −51% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 41% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 29% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 40% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.64× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 9.70× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 7.25× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 32.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 16.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG 3.64× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Union Pacific Corporation deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+14.9 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+4.6 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.6 %
FCF yield on price3.20 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.2 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 20
FUTURE16 · sector 20
PAST100 · sector 30
HEALTH18 · sector 91
DIVIDEND38 · sector 45

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CSX Corporation CSX $48.99 $12.62 −74%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $94.12 $34.33 −64%
Canadian National Railway Company CNR C$170.58 C$92.68 −46%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $332.96 $114.36 −66%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $297.57 $144.80 −51%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.87 ¥5.65 +16%
MTR Corporation 0066 HK$32.04 HK$17.85 −44%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.72 ¥6.22 +32%
Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 146,900 KRW 125,182 KRW −15%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $141.29 versus a price of $289.62, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UNP?
Our model-based fair value for Union Pacific Corporation is $141.29 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $289.62.
What is the quality score of UNP?
Union Pacific Corporation has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $141.29 (as of Aug 30, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $87.76, optimistic scenario $265.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Union Pacific Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $141.29, about −51% upside versus a price of $289.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $87.76, optimistic scenario $265.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)?
Union Pacific Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $24.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of UNP?
The net profit margin of Union Pacific Corporation is about 29.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 29.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Union Pacific Corporation pay a dividend?
Union Pacific Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.89% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Union Pacific Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +14.9 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.2 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Aug 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UNP use?
Our models discount Union Pacific Corporation at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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