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MTR Corp Ltd (0066) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what MTR Corp Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · HK · ISIN HK0066009694

MC MTR Corp Ltd logo Some data Sep 18, 2026

MTR Corp Ltd

0066 · HK

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value HK$25.65 · Overvalued (−22%)
!Quality 42/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.6% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·3.97% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Moderate moat 61/100
!Insider activity 30/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 4 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$38.48 HK$20.74 Fair Value HK$25.65 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$20.74 – HK$38.48 · fair‑value band HK$13.39 – HK$29.57 · the HK$32.98 price screens above the HK$25.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

MTR Corporation Limited engages in railway design, construction, operation, maintenance, and investment in Hong Kong, Australia, Mainland China, Macao, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

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MTR Corporation Limited engages in railway design, construction, operation, maintenance, and investment in Hong Kong, Australia, Mainland China, Macao, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Hong Kong Transport Operations; Hong Kong Station Commercial Businesses; Hong Kong Property Rental and Management Businesses; Hong Kong Property Development; Mainland China and International Railway, Property Rental and Management Businesses; Mainland China Property Development; and Other Businesses segments. The company offers passenger operation and related services on the domestic mass transit railway system, the Airport Express, cross-boundary railway connections, light rail and bus feeder with railway system, and intercity railway transport. It is also involved in railway project management and property development businesses; station commercial business, including leasing of station retail space, leasing of advertising space inside trains and stations, and enabling of telecommunication services on the railway system; property business comprising property development, investment, management, and leasing management of shopping malls and offices; and investment in related new technologies. In addition, the company provides railway management, engineering, and technology training services. MTR Corporation Limited was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

MTR Corp Ltd (0066) currently trades at HK$32.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$25.65, implying the stock looks roughly 28.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$41.93 per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$32.98 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$14.66, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: HK$13.39 (bear) to HK$29.57 (bull), the price of HK$32.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

MTR Corp Ltd reported revenue of HK$55.5B in FY2025 versus HK$47.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$14.0B in FY2025, compounding +10.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$205B (≈ $26.2B) · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 3.37 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.24 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 25.3% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −22%, 0066 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$13.39 Fair Value HK$25.65 Bull HK$29.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$25.44 HK$27.00 HK$29.29 76
EPV n/a n/a HK$0.5100 68
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a HK$0.5100 68
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$15.36 HK$47.46 HK$63.07 65
Lynch FV HK$10.26 HK$14.66 HK$19.06 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$10.26 HK$14.66 HK$19.06 57
EPV n/a n/a HK$0.5100 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$12.05 HK$25.05 HK$39.74 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$12.05 HK$19.86 HK$26.29 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$35.59 HK$47.45 HK$59.31 63
P/S Multiple HK$13.39 HK$17.85 HK$22.31 58
P/B Multiple HK$28.81 HK$38.41 HK$48.01 55
EV/EBIT HK$7.59 HK$13.05 HK$18.51 64
EV/EBITDA HK$13.77 HK$21.29 HK$28.81 66
EV/Revenue HK$2.45 HK$7.27 HK$12.09 49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$15.47 HK$20.72 HK$30.93 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$25.44 HK$27.00 HK$29.29 76
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a HK$0.5100 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$29.35 HK$41.93 HK$54.50 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 14%

0066 screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 112 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −46% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 28% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 37% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.51× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.03× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.57× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.68× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)4 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)31 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)74 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)79 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $283.99 $141.29 −50%
CSX Corporation CSX $48.66 $10.75 −78%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $89.02 $34.13 −62%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $317.00 $114.36 −64%
Canadian National Railway Company CNR C$166.68 C$92.68 −44%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $276.37 $289.60 +5%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.74 ¥5.65 +19%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.95 ¥9.53 +60%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.71 ¥5.48 +16%
Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 122,300 KRW 134,530 KRW +10%

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HK$25.65 −29%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MTR Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0066

Frequently asked questions

Is MTR Corp Ltd (0066) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$25.65 versus a price of HK$32.98, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0066?
Our model-based fair value for MTR Corp Ltd is HK$25.65 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$32.98.
What is the quality score of 0066?
MTR Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$25.65 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$13.39, optimistic scenario HK$29.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MTR Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$25.65, about −22% upside versus a price of HK$32.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$13.39, optimistic scenario HK$29.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
MTR Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$55.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does MTR Corp Ltd pay a dividend?
MTR Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MTR Corp Ltd it is HK$25.65 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of HK$32.98. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MTR Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 0066 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$32.98, fair value HK$25.65, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0066?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$32.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$25.65). For MTR Corp Ltd the two are HK$7.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MTR Corp Ltd worth?
The market values MTR Corp Ltd at about HK$205B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is HK$32.98; our models calculate a fair value of HK$25.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0066?
Our models span a range for MTR Corp Ltd: cautious scenario HK$13.39, base HK$25.65, optimistic HK$29.57 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price HK$32.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0066?
MTR Corp Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$25.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.0, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 0066?
The PEG ratio of MTR Corp Ltd is 0.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
Balance-sheet figures for MTR Corp Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0066 from its 52-week high?
MTR Corp Ltd trades at HK$32.98, about 10% below its 52-week high of HK$36.84 and 30% above the low of HK$25.36 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$25.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MTR Corp Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MTR Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price HK$32.98, calculated fair value HK$25.65 (−22%), Quality Score 42/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0066 calculated?
We run MTR Corp Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$25.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MTR Corp Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was HK$32.98. Our model-based fair value is HK$25.65, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MTR Corp Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$29.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (HK$13.39 to HK$29.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of MTR Corp Ltd (0066) come from?
Earnings per share at MTR Corp Ltd grew −1.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin −8.0 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of MTR Corp Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The market capitalisation of MTR Corp Ltd is HK$205B (≈ $26.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MTR Corp Ltd is 3.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
Earnings per share at MTR Corp Ltd are HK$1.24 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The dividend yield of MTR Corp Ltd is 4.0% (payout 106%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The net margin of MTR Corp Ltd is 25.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MTR Corp Ltd is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MTR Corp Ltd is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The operating margin of MTR Corp Ltd is 37.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
Revenue at MTR Corp Ltd is growing −8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
Earnings per share at MTR Corp Ltd are growing −28.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MTR Corp Ltd (0066) generate?
The free cash flow of MTR Corp Ltd is −HK$7.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MTR Corp Ltd (0066) carry?
The net debt of MTR Corp Ltd is HK$78.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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