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MTR Corp Ltd (0066) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MTR Corp Ltd stock HK$25.72, price HK$34.10, that is 24.6% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials HK · ISIN HK0066009694

MC MTR Corp Ltd logo Broad data Nov 3, 2026

MTR Corp Ltd

0066 · HK
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 25% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 44.3% net margin (TTM)
Broad data
Costs just 8.9 times its yearly profit.
Quality 45/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.4 %/yr in HKD)
Moderate debt
3.8% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Moderate moat 63/100
Fair value HK$25.72 · Overvalued (−24.6%)
Negative free cash flow

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Dependence on HK government contracts and land rights
Watch MTR Corp Ltd for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$38.00 HK$20.48 Fair Value HK$25.72 Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$20.48 – HK$38.00 · fair‑value band HK$13.39 – HK$30.03 · the HK$34.10 price screens above the HK$25.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.

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Company profile

MTR Corporation Limited engages in railway design, construction, operation, maintenance, and investment in Hong Kong, Australia, Mainland China, Macao, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

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It operates through Hong Kong Transport Operations; Hong Kong Station Commercial Businesses; Hong Kong Property Rental and Management Businesses; Hong Kong Property Development; Mainland China and International Railway, Property Rental and Management Businesses; Mainland China Property Development; and Other Businesses segments.

The company offers passenger operation and related services on the domestic mass transit railway system, the Airport Express, cross-boundary railway connections, light rail and bus feeder with railway system, and intercity railway transport.

It is also involved in railway project management and property development businesses; station commercial business, including leasing of station retail space, leasing of advertising space inside trains and stations, and enabling of telecommunication services on the railway system; property business comprising property development, investment, management, and leasing management of shopping malls and offices; and investment in related new technologies.

In addition, the company provides railway management, engineering, and technology training services. MTR Corporation Limited was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

MTR Corp Ltd (0066) currently trades at HK$34.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$25.72, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$41.93 per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$34.10 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$14.67, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: HK$13.39 (bear) to HK$30.03 (bull), the price of HK$34.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

MTR Corp Ltd reported revenue of HK$55.5B in FY2025 versus HK$47.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$14.0B in FY2025, compounding +10.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$212B (≈ $27.1B) Large · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 2.26 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 25.3% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin 70.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −25%, 0066 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$13.39 Fair Value HK$25.72 Bull HK$30.03
Price HK$34.10 · Downside -24.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income HK$25.55 HK$27.16 HK$30.03 76
EPV n/a n/a HK$0.6800 68
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a HK$0.6800 68
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$15.37 HK$47.46 HK$63.07 65
Lynch FV HK$10.27 HK$14.67 HK$19.07 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$10.27 HK$14.67 HK$19.07 57
EPV n/a n/a HK$0.6800 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$12.21 HK$25.72 HK$41.43 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$12.21 HK$20.23 HK$26.94 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$35.59 HK$47.45 HK$59.32 63
P/S Multiple HK$13.39 HK$17.85 HK$22.32 58
P/B Multiple HK$33.29 HK$44.39 HK$55.49 55
EV/EBIT HK$3.80 HK$9.26 HK$14.72 61
EV/EBITDA HK$9.98 HK$17.50 HK$25.02 65
EV/Revenue n/a HK$3.48 HK$8.30 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$12.12 HK$16.23 HK$24.23 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$25.55 HK$27.16 HK$30.03 76
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a HK$0.6800 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$29.35 HK$41.93 HK$54.51 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 36
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 25
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 43
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 51
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 89
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 51
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 72
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 81
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.3% vs 0.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

0066 screens overvalued: fair value 25% below the price. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −24.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.1% · Above median
Return on assets 3.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 44.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 70.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −4.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.51× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 8.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.10× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 3.91× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.68× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)1 · sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)44 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)74 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)77 · sector 44

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥6.38 ¥9.21 +44% vs 0066
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥5.27 ¥5.84 +11% vs 0066
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $278.48 $290.92 +4% vs 0066
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.84 ¥4.66 −4% vs 0066
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $126.49 $100.13 −21% vs 0066
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $297.95 $153.89 −48% vs 0066
Getlink SE GET €20.40 €10.47 −49% vs 0066
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $93.76 $38.28 −59% vs 0066
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $329.25 $132.55 −60% vs 0066
CSX Corporation CSX $50.83 $12.92 −75% vs 0066

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MTR Corp Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MTR Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0066

Frequently asked questions

Is MTR Corp Ltd (0066) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$25.72 versus a price of HK$34.10, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0066?
Our model-based fair value for MTR Corp Ltd is HK$25.72 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$34.10.
What is the quality score of 0066?
MTR Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$25.72 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$13.39, optimistic scenario HK$30.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MTR Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$25.72, about 25% lower versus a price of HK$34.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$13.39, optimistic scenario HK$30.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
MTR Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$54.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does MTR Corp Ltd pay a dividend?
MTR Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MTR Corp Ltd it is HK$25.72 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of HK$34.10. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MTR Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 0066 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$34.10, fair value HK$25.72, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0066?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$34.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$25.72). For MTR Corp Ltd the two are HK$8.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MTR Corp Ltd worth?
The market values MTR Corp Ltd at about HK$212B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is HK$34.10; our models calculate a fair value of HK$25.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0066?
Our models span a range for MTR Corp Ltd: cautious scenario HK$13.39, base HK$25.72, optimistic HK$30.03 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price HK$34.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0066?
MTR Corp Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$25.72 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 21.7. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.1, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 0066?
The PEG ratio of MTR Corp Ltd is 0.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
Balance-sheet figures for MTR Corp Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0066 from its 52-week high?
MTR Corp Ltd trades at HK$34.10, about 5% below its 52-week high of HK$36.05 and 21% above the low of HK$28.18 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$25.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MTR Corp Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MTR Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price HK$34.10, calculated fair value HK$25.72 (−25%), Quality Score 45/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0066 calculated?
We run MTR Corp Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$25.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. MTR Corp Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was HK$34.10. Our model-based fair value is HK$25.72, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MTR Corp Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$30.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (HK$13.39 to HK$30.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of MTR Corp Ltd (0066) come from?
Earnings per share at MTR Corp Ltd grew −1.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin −8.0 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of MTR Corp Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The market capitalisation of MTR Corp Ltd is HK$212B (≈ $27.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MTR Corp Ltd is 2.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The dividend yield of MTR Corp Ltd is 3.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The net margin of MTR Corp Ltd is 25.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MTR Corp Ltd is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MTR Corp Ltd is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
The operating margin of MTR Corp Ltd is 70.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
Revenue at MTR Corp Ltd is growing −4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MTR Corp Ltd (0066)?
Earnings per share at MTR Corp Ltd are growing +113% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MTR Corp Ltd (0066) generate?
The free cash flow of MTR Corp Ltd is −HK$7.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MTR Corp Ltd (0066) carry?
The net debt of MTR Corp Ltd is HK$78.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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