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STOCK COMPARISON

Alakasa Industrindo Tbk vs UPM-Kymmene Oyj: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Alakasa Industrindo Tbk (ALKA) and UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) compare, as of Sep 6, 2026.

As of Sep 6, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Alakasa Industrindo Tbk trades at IDR 4,000 versus a fair value of IDR 526 (-87%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €24.24 versus €19.43 (-20%).
Alakasa Industrindo Tbk
ALKA.JK · IDR · Materials
-87%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceIDR 4,000
Fair ValueIDR 526
Quality64/100
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
UPM.HE · EUR · Materials
-20%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price€24.24
Fair Value€19.43
Quality60/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Alakasa Industrindo TbkUPM-Kymmene Oyj
Valuation
120.8×P/E (TTM)23.0×
16.59×P/S (TTM)1.51×
9.95×P/B1.44×
—EV/EBITDA14.4×
—PEG12.89×
−86.8%Fair value upside−19.8%
0.0%Dividend yield6.2%
—Dividend per share€1.50
Profitability
0%Operating margin10%
14.86×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.51×
9%Return on equity5%
5%Return on assets2%
Growth
145%Revenue growth (YoY)-5%
-65.4%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-6.3%
-39.2%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)2.4%
+21.9%Value creation/yr−8.3%
Balance & size
43.8×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)4.2×
—Debt / equity0.28×
$233MMarket cap$14B
weakGrowth qualityweak

UPM-Kymmene Oyj leads: 4 to 8 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Alakasa Industrindo Tbkof which business quality 60 · market factors 80 UPM-Kymmene Oyjof which business quality 58 · market factors 56
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
46
26
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
94
38
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
0
66
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
85
55
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
84
96
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
43
91
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
100
38
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
89
48
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
82
88

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyAlakasa Industrindo TbkPrice IDR 4,000UPM-Kymmene OyjPrice €24.24
DCF Models-82%below the priceIDR 718-42%below the price€14.17
Earnings-Based-90%below the priceIDR 392-83%below the price€4.21
Dividend Discount-100%below the priceIDR 2-33%below the price€16.20
Multiples-87%below the priceIDR 515-36%below the price€15.45
Asset-Based-92%below the priceIDR 308-48%below the price€12.71
Growth DCFn/a-32%below the price€16.37
Economic Profit-90%below the priceIDR 408-67%below the price€7.88
Growth Earnings-86%below the priceIDR 551-51%below the price€11.81
Minimum-100%below the priceIDR 2-83%below the price€4.21
Maximum-82%below the priceIDR 718-32%below the price€16.37
Median-90%below the priceIDR 408-45%below the price€13.44
Geometric mean-95%below the priceIDR 214-53%below the price€11.42

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Alakasa Industrindo Tbk: 16 of 16 models see the stock below the current price.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj: 24 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Alakasa Industrindo Tbk
Bear IDR 400Fair Value IDR 526Bull IDR 648
IDR 4,000 = current price (white tick)
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
Bear €14.58Fair Value €19.43Bull €25.27
€24.24 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Alakasa Industrindo Tbk · Materials

Quality score64 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-87% · bottom 25%

UPM-Kymmene Oyj · Materials

Quality score60 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-20% · above median

Bottom line

As of Sep 6, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Alakasa Industrindo Tbk trades at IDR 4,000 versus a fair value of IDR 526 (-87%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €24.24 versus €19.43 (-20%).

Alakasa Industrindo Tbk has the higher quality score (64/100).

See the full analysis →
Alakasa Industrindo Tbk · UPM-Kymmene Oyj

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.