Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · TR · Market cap 5.9B TRY
Fair value as of: Aug 4, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −13.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 46% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5.58 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (3.10 TRY to 5.58 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.9215 TRY – 15.99 TRY · fair‑value band 3.10 TRY – 5.58 TRY · the 7.99 TRY price screens above the 4.34 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.
Analysis
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) currently trades at 7.99 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.34 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 45.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS generated revenue of 2.8B TRY at a net margin of -5.0%. Revenue declined 15.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.9%. Net debt stands at 227M TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 4, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 3.10 TRY (bear case) to 5.58 TRY (bull case); at 7.99 TRY, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -46%, ALKA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (2.40 TRY) versus Earnings-Based (0.8600 TRY). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 4, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS manufactures and sells woodfree offset, coated, and office papers in Turkey. Its woodfree offset papers include offset white writing and printing papers, bristol, and copy quality offset white writing and printing papers; coated papers comprise glossy, matt, and one side coated papers, as well as label papers; and special …
Full company description
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS manufactures and sells woodfree offset, coated, and office papers in Turkey. Its woodfree offset papers include offset white writing and printing papers, bristol, and copy quality offset white writing and printing papers; coated papers comprise glossy, matt, and one side coated papers, as well as label papers; and special papers include envelope, blueprint, drawing, map, optical reader, kraft shopping bag, ivory, chamois, white kraft, and wall papers, as well as office papers under the Platinum Copy, Gold Copy, Best Copy, and All Copy brand names. The company was founded in 1948 and is based in Izmir, Turkey. Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS operates as a subsidiary of Alkim Alkali Kimya A.S.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported revenue of 2.9B TRY in FY2025 versus 701M TRY in FY2021, a compound +42.4%/yr. Reported net income was −108M TRY in FY2025.
ALKA screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Klabin S.A →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 4, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.58 | R$3.89 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.45 | €15.47 | -34% |
| Suzano S.A SUZB3 | R$41.70 | R$138.01 | +231% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 103.00 | kr 49.40 | -52% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥14.13 | ¥17.29 | +22% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 305.40 | kr 217.72 | -29% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.55 | HK$8.73 | +16% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,078 CLP | 1,269 CLP | +18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥22.05 | ¥24.32 | +10% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 68.70 | kr 48.60 | -29% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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