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Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS TRY 4.34, price TRY 6.57, upside -34.0%, quality 28 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · TR · ISIN TRAALKAW91D8

AK Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS

ALKA · IS

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value 4.34 TRY · Overvalued (−34%)
!Quality 28/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +48.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

15.99 TRY 0.9215 TRY Fair Value 4.34 TRY Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.9215 TRY – 15.99 TRY · fair‑value band 3.10 TRY – 5.58 TRY · the 6.57 TRY price screens above the 4.34 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS manufactures and sells woodfree offset, coated, and office papers in Turkey.

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Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS manufactures and sells woodfree offset, coated, and office papers in Turkey. Its woodfree offset papers include offset white writing and printing papers, bristol, and copy quality offset white writing and printing papers; coated papers comprise glossy, matt, and one side coated papers, as well as label papers; and special papers include envelope, blueprint, drawing, map, optical reader, kraft shopping bag, ivory, chamois, white kraft, and wall papers, as well as office papers under the Platinum Copy, Gold Copy, Best Copy, and All Copy brand names. The company was founded in 1948 and is based in Izmir, Turkey. Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS operates as a subsidiary of Alkim Alkali Kimya A.S.

Stock analysis

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) currently trades at 6.57 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.34 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 51.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 2.40 TRY per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 6.57 TRY price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.6300 TRY, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 3.10 TRY (bear) to 5.58 TRY (bull), the price of 6.57 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported revenue of 2.9B TRY in FY2025 versus 701M TRY in FY2021, a compound +42.4%/yr. Reported net income was −108M TRY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 5.9B TRY (≈ $120M) · P/S ratio 2.12 · EPS (TTM) −0.1500 TRY · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity −6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.5% · Operating margin −5.3% · Revenue (TTM) 2.8B TRY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at −34%, ALKA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 3.10 TRY Fair Value 4.34 TRY Bull 5.58 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV 0.5600 TRY 0.6300 TRY 0.6900 TRY 74
ROIC Compounder 0.5600 TRY 0.6300 TRY 0.6900 TRY 72
EV/EBITDA 1.78 TRY 2.40 TRY 3.02 TRY 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV 0.5600 TRY 0.6300 TRY 0.6900 TRY 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT 1.79 TRY 2.42 TRY 3.04 TRY 66
EV/EBITDA 1.78 TRY 2.40 TRY 3.02 TRY 67
EV/Revenue 1.54 TRY 2.24 TRY 2.93 TRY 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1.41 TRY 1.90 TRY 2.83 TRY 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 0.5600 TRY 0.6300 TRY 0.6900 TRY 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 3
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +34.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.5% (2020) → 4.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ALKA screens 52% overvalued. Compare with UPM-Kymmene Oyj →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 122 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −15% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.06× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.04× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.4× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 4.12× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 7
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 48

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €25.58 €15.39 −40%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥13.68 ¥17.29 +26%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$5.93 HK$8.59 +45%
The Navigator Company NVG €3.26 €2.08 −36%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 966.50 CLP 1,355 CLP +40%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥18.88 ¥18.80 +0%
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 8,450 IDR 12,515 IDR +48%
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM €20.75 €29.15 +40%
Billerud AB BILL kr 84.40 kr 46.05 −45%
Sylvamo Corporation SLVM $36.87 $27.57 −25%

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Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS · Fair Value
4.34 TRY −52%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALKA

Frequently asked questions

Is Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.34 TRY versus a price of 6.57 TRY, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALKA?
Our model-based fair value for Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 4.34 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 6.57 TRY.
What is the quality score of ALKA?
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.34 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.10 TRY, optimistic scenario 5.58 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.34 TRY, about −34% upside versus a price of 6.57 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.10 TRY, optimistic scenario 5.58 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.8B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS it is 4.34 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 6.57 TRY. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALKA trades above its calculated fair value: price 6.57 TRY, fair value 4.34 TRY, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALKA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (6.57 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.34 TRY). For Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS the two are 2.23 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS worth?
The market values Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS at about 5.9B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 6.57 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 4.34 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALKA?
Our models span a range for Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS: cautious scenario 3.10 TRY, base 4.34 TRY, optimistic 5.58 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 6.57 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ALKA?
The PEG ratio of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 4.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −6.9%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALKA from its 52-week high?
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS trades at 6.57 TRY, about 59% below its 52-week high of 15.99 TRY and at the low of 6.57 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.34 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 6.57 TRY, calculated fair value 4.34 TRY (−34%), Quality Score 28/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALKA calculated?
We run Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4.34 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 6.57 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 4.34 TRY, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5.58 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (3.10 TRY to 5.58 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS

How large is the market capitalisation of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The market capitalisation of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 5.9B TRY (≈ $120M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 2.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Earnings per share at Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS are −0.1500 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The net margin of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is −3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is −6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 22.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The operating margin of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is −5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Revenue at Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is growing −15.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Earnings per share at Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS are growing −64.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) generate?
The free cash flow of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is −569M TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) carry?
The net debt of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 227M TRY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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