Is BHP Group or Churchill Resources more undervalued?

As of Sep 12, 2026, BHP Group is at -40% to fair value and Churchill Resources at -56%. BHP Group is the less overvalued of the two. Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

Which has higher quality, BHP Group or Churchill Resources?

BHP Group has a quality score of 64/100 and Churchill Resources 42/100. BHP Group leads on quality.

STOCK COMPARISON

BHP Group vs Churchill Resources: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how BHP Group (BHP) and Churchill Resources (CRI) compare, as of Sep 12, 2026.

As of Sep 12, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees BHP Group as the less overvalued of the two: BHP Group trades at £32.31 versus a fair value of £19.35 (-40%), while Churchill Resources trades at C$0.05 versus C$0.02 (-56%).

BHP Group

BHP.LSE · GBX · Materials

-40%

upside to fair value

overvalued

Price£32.31

Fair Value£19.35

Quality64/100

Churchill Resources

CRI.V · CAD · Materials

-56%

upside to fair value

overvalued

PriceC$0.05

Fair ValueC$0.02

Quality42/100

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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

BHP GroupChurchill Resources

Valuation

19.8×P/E (TTM)—

3.85×P/S (TTM)—

4.50×P/B6.29×

8.2×EV/EBITDA—

−40.1%Fair value upside−55.6%

4.0%Dividend yield—

£1.33Dividend per share—

Profitability

41%Operating margin0%

1.19×EBIT margin trend (5Y)—

25%Return on equity-209%

12%Return on assets-94%

Growth

11%Revenue growth (YoY)0%

-7.7%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)—

3.6%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)—

+6.1%Value creation/yr—

Balance & size

10.4×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)—

0.44×Debt / equity—

$208BMarket cap$10M

weakGrowth quality—

BHP Group leads: 4 to 0 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

BHP Groupof which business quality 63 · market factors 75 Churchill Resourcesof which business quality 42 · market factors 1

ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today

Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?

CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building

100

Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)

MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model family	BHP GroupPrice £32.31	Churchill ResourcesPrice C$0.05
DCF Models	-16%below the price£27.19	n/a
Earnings-Based	-22%below the price£25.15	n/a
Dividend Discount	-39%below the price£19.67	n/a
Multiples	-11%close to the price£28.74	n/a
Asset-Based	-81%below the price£6.10	n/a
Growth DCF	-30%below the price£22.49	n/a
Economic Profit	-36%below the price£20.84	n/a
Growth Earnings	-21%below the price£25.38	n/a
Minimum	-81%below the price£6.10	n/a
Maximum	-11%close to the price£28.74	n/a
Median	-26%below the price£23.82	n/a
Geometric mean	-37%below the price£20.23	n/a

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

BHP Group: 21 of 25 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

BHP Group

Bear £12.88Fair Value £19.35Bull £27.71

£32.31 = current price (white tick)

Churchill Resources

Bear C$0.01Fair Value C$0.02Bull C$0.02

C$0.05 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

BHP Group · Materials

Quality score64 · Top 25%

Fair value upside-40% · below median

Churchill Resources · Materials

Quality score42 · below median

Fair value upside-56% · below median

Bottom line

BHP Group has the higher quality score (64/100).

See the full analysis →

BHP Group · Churchill Resources

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.