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STOCK COMPARISON

Bowhead Specialty Holdings vs Progressive: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Bowhead Specialty Holdings (BOW) and Progressive (PGR) compare, as of Sep 25, 2026.

As of Sep 25, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Progressive as the less overvalued of the two: Bowhead Specialty Holdings trades at $33.84 versus a fair value of $11.25 (-67%), while Progressive trades at $203 versus $160 (-21%).
Bowhead Specialty Holdings
BOW · USD · Financials
-67%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$33.84
Fair Value$11.25
Quality46/100
Progressive
PGR · USD · Financials
-21%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$203
Fair Value$160
Quality65/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.

betterweakerfor reference, not scored

Bowhead Specialty HoldingsProgressive
Valuation
19.6×P/E (TTM)10.3×
1.95×P/S (TTM)1.50×
2.54×P/B4.43×
12.3×EV/EBITDA9.3×
n/aPEG35.19×
−66.8%Fair value upside−21.1%
n/aDividend yield0.2%
n/aDividend per share$0.40
Profitability
16%Operating margin16%
1.56×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.96×
14%Return on equity38%
2%Return on assets8%
Growth
27%Revenue growth (YoY)9%
43.3%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)20.9%
n/aAvg. growth/yr (5Y)15.5%
+63.5%Value creation/yr+33.4%
Balance & size
33.4×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)51.2×
0.33×Debt / equity0.23×
$1BMarket cap$134B
healthyGrowth qualitymixed

Progressive leads: 5 to 7 metric wins.

n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Bowhead Specialty Holdingsof which business quality 48 · market factors 76 Progressiveof which business quality 64 · market factors 48
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
29
61
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
53
64
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
100
81
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
33
54
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
33
37
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
75
87
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
76
36
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
79
26
Net IssuanceShare count: buybacks or dilution?
31
81

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyBowhead Specialty HoldingsPrice $33.84ProgressivePrice $203
Multiples-40%below the price$20.20-20%below the price$163
Asset-Based-73%below the price$9.15-83%below the price$34.90
Economic Profit-61%below the price$13.36+4%close to the price$211
Minimum-73%below the price$9.15-83%below the price$34.90
Maximum-40%below the price$20.20+4%close to the price$211
Median-61%below the price$13.36-20%below the price$163
Geometric mean-60%below the price$13.52-48%below the price$106

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Bowhead Specialty Holdings: 4 of 4 models see the stock below the current price.

Progressive: 2 of 4 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

Bowhead Specialty Holdings
Price $33.84
Fair Value $11.25
Bear $10.03Bull $17.65
Progressive
Price $203
Fair Value $160
Bear $120Bull $200

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Bowhead Specialty Holdings · Financials

Quality score46 · below median
Fair value upside-67% · bottom 25%

Progressive · Financials

Quality score65 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-21% · below median

Bottom line

As of Sep 25, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Progressive as the less overvalued of the two: Bowhead Specialty Holdings trades at $33.84 versus a fair value of $11.25 (-67%), while Progressive trades at $203 versus $160 (-21%).

Progressive has the higher quality score (65/100).

Open Progressive live analysis →
Bowhead Specialty Holdings · Progressive

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.