Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. $11.25, price $33.84, upside -66.8%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
28‑month range $21.44 – $42.15 · fair‑value band $10.03 – $17.65 · the $33.84 price screens above the $11.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. provides commercial specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States.
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Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. provides commercial specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It underwrites casualty insurance solutions for risks in the construction, distribution, heavy manufacturing, real estate, and hospitality segments; professional liability insurance solutions, including directors and officers liability, errors and omissions liability, employment practices liability, fiduciary liability, fidelity liability and miscellaneous professional liability, crime insurance, and cyber for financial institutions; and healthcare solutions for hospitals, senior care providers, managed care organizations, miscellaneous medical facilities, and management liability segments. In addition, it offers Baleen Specialty, a technology-powered underwriting operation, that specializes in small to mid-sized risks that are not eligible in the admitted market. It distributes its products through distribution partners in wholesale and retail markets. The company was formerly known as Bowhead Holdings Inc. and changed its name to Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. in March 2024. The company was founded in 2020 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) currently trades at $33.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.25, implying the stock looks roughly 200.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $19.11 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $33.84 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.15, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.03 (bear) to $17.65 (bull), the price of $33.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $552M in FY2025 versus $188M in FY2022, a compound +43.3%/yr. Reported net income was $53.8M in FY2025, compounding +68.4%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 19.6 · P/S ratio 1.91 · EPS (TTM) $1.73 · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% · Operating margin 15.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −67%, BOW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.03Fair Value $11.25Bull $17.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.3%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+63.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+63.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 12%
2025 sits 101% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.4% a year for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BOW
Frequently asked questions
Is Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.25 versus a price of $33.84, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BOW?
Our model-based fair value for Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is $11.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.84.
What is the quality score of BOW?
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.03, optimistic scenario $17.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.25, about −67% upside versus a price of $33.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.03, optimistic scenario $17.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $585M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +43.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BOW use?
Our models discount Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. grew +43.3 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.63 %: that much free cash flow Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. it is $11.25 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $33.84. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, BOW trades above its calculated fair value: price $33.84, fair value $11.25, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BOW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.25). For Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. the two are $22.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $33.84; our models calculate a fair value of $11.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BOW?
Our models span a range for Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $10.03, base $11.25, optimistic $17.65 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $33.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BOW?
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 12.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.7%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BOW from its 52-week high?
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. trades at $33.84, at its 52-week high of $33.87 and 58% above the low of $21.44 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $33.84, calculated fair value $11.25 (−67%), Quality Score 49/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BOW calculated?
We run Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $33.84. Our model-based fair value is $11.25, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The market capitalisation of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is 1.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Earnings per share at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. are $1.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The net margin of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is 9.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is 2.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The operating margin of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Revenue at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is growing +26.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +43.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Earnings per share at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. are growing +41.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) hold?
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. holds more cash than debt, $234M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 23, 2026