Bowhead Specialty Holdings (BOW) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.0B
Bowhead Specialty Holdings
BOW · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +5.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 46% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
26‑month range $21.44 – $42.15 · fair‑value band $13.57 – $22.63 · the $33.45 price screens above the $18.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Bowhead Specialty Holdings (BOW) currently trades at $33.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.10, implying the stock looks roughly 45.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Bowhead Specialty Holdings generated revenue of $585M at a net margin of 10.0%. Revenue grew 26.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $234M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.57 (bear case) to $22.63 (bull case); at $33.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at -46%, BOW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($19.11) versus Asset-Based ($9.15). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. provides commercial specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States.
Full company description
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. provides commercial specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It underwrites casualty insurance solutions for risks in the construction, distribution, heavy manufacturing, real estate, and hospitality segments; professional liability insurance solutions, including directors and officers liability, errors and omissions liability, employment practices liability, fiduciary liability, fidelity liability and miscellaneous professional liability, crime insurance, and cyber for financial institutions; and healthcare solutions for hospitals, senior care providers, managed care organizations, miscellaneous medical facilities, and management liability segments. In addition, it offers Baleen Specialty, a technology-powered underwriting operation, that specializes in small to mid-sized risks that are not eligible in the admitted market. It distributes its products through distribution partners in wholesale and retail markets. The company was formerly known as Bowhead Holdings Inc. and changed its name to Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. in March 2024. The company was founded in 2020 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bowhead Specialty Holdings reported revenue of $552M in FY2025 versus $188M in FY2022, a compound +43.3%/yr. Reported net income was $53.8M in FY2025, compounding +68.4%/yr from FY2022.
BOW screens 46% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $234.48 | $252.50 | +8% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $337.44 | $345.56 | +2% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $368.98 | $384.42 | +4% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $251.61 | $503.22 | +100% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.06 | ¥13.71 | +94% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$294.02 | C$247.44 | -16% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,327 | C$3,252 | +40% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$25.47 | A$19.42 | -24% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 648,000 KRW | 658,771 KRW | +2% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 69.80 PLN | 100.85 PLN | +44% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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