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Data-driven stock valuation

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. stock $13.19, price $34.06, that is 61.3% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

BS Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. logo Some data Nov 6, 2026

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.

BOW · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 61% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +43.3 %/yr in USD)
Positive coverage
Revenue last quarter +19% vs. a year ago.
Quality 54/100
Thin margins · 9.3% net margin (TTM)
Moderate moat 51/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value $13.19 · Strongly overvalued (−61.3%)
Trails peers (3/13)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$42.15 $21.44 Fair Value $13.19 May 2024 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

29‑month range $21.44 – $42.15 · fair‑value band $11.76 – $16.92 · the $34.06 price screens above the $13.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. provides commercial specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States.

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It underwrites casualty insurance solutions for risks in the construction, distribution, heavy manufacturing, real estate, and hospitality segments; professional liability insurance solutions, including directors and officers liability, errors and omissions liability, employment practices liability, fiduciary liability, fidelity liability and miscellaneous professional liability, crime insurance, and cyber for financial institutions; and healthcare solutions for hospitals, senior care providers, managed care organizations, miscellaneous medical facilities, and management liability segments.

In addition, it offers Baleen Specialty, a technology-powered underwriting operation, that specializes in small to mid-sized risks that are not eligible in the admitted market. It distributes its products through distribution partners in wholesale and retail markets.

The company was formerly known as Bowhead Holdings Inc. and changed its name to Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. in March 2024. The company was founded in 2020 and is based in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) currently trades at $34.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.19, 61% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $19.39 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $34.06 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.40, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $11.76 (bear) to $16.92 (bull), the price of $34.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $552M in FY2025 versus $188M in FY2022, a compound +43.3%/yr. Reported net income was $53.8M in FY2025, compounding +68.4%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $1.1B Small · P/E ratio 19.4 · P/S ratio 1.78 · EPS (TTM) $1.76 · Net margin 9.3% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% (4-year average) · Operating margin 15.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −61%, BOW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.76 Fair Value $13.19 Bull $16.92
Price $34.06 · Downside -61.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.50 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $11.76 $13.19 $16.92 66
P/E Multiple $15.92 $21.22 $26.53 63
P/B Multiple $13.16 $17.55 $21.94 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $15.92 $21.22 $26.53 63
P/B Multiple $13.16 $17.55 $21.94 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.27 $8.40 $12.54 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $11.76 $13.19 $16.92 66

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 29
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 33
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 80
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 64
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 83
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 72
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+63.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+63.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 12%
2025 sits 101% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.

BOW screens overvalued: fair value 61% below the price. Compare with Chubb Limited →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −61.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 13.6% · Below median
Return on assets 2.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 9.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 15.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 19.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.33× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 19.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.55× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.78× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 3.5× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 10.6× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)97 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)54 · sector 61
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
The People's Insurance Company 601319 ¥7.26 ¥9.01 +24% vs BOW
Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH C$2,673 C$3,076 +15% vs BOW
The Allstate Corporation ALL $254.81 $290.52 +14% vs BOW
Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF $185.48 $144.19 −22% vs BOW
The Progressive Corporation PGR $227.77 $160.75 −29% vs BOW
Chubb Limited CB $365.02 $235.99 −35% vs BOW
The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV $395.20 $254.84 −36% vs BOW
Intact Financial Corporation IFC C$276.00 C$168.64 −39% vs BOW
W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB $75.23 $43.28 −42% vs BOW
QBE Insurance Group QBE A$26.75 A$13.41 −50% vs BOW

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Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BOW

Frequently asked questions

Is Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.19 versus a price of $34.06, about 61% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BOW?
Our model-based fair value for Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is $13.19 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.06.
What is the quality score of BOW?
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.19 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.76, optimistic scenario $16.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.19, about 61% lower versus a price of $34.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.76, optimistic scenario $16.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $643M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. it is $13.19 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $34.06. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 3 families (Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, BOW trades above its calculated fair value: price $34.06, fair value $13.19, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BOW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.19). For Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. the two are $20.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $34.06; our models calculate a fair value of $13.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BOW?
Our models span a range for Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $11.76, base $13.19, optimistic $16.92 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $34.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BOW?
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BOW from its 52-week high?
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. trades at $34.06, about 1% below its 52-week high of $34.29 and 59% above the low of $21.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $34.06, calculated fair value $13.19 (−61%), Quality Score 54/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BOW calculated?
We run Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. through 4 models from 3 families: Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.19 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $34.06. Our model-based fair value is $13.19, about 61% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The market capitalisation of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is 1.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Earnings per share at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. are $1.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The net margin of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is 9.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is 2.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
The operating margin of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Revenue at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is growing +19.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +43.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW)?
Earnings per share at Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. are growing −15.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) generate?
The free cash flow of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. is $326M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) hold?
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. holds more cash than debt, $234M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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