Is Constellation Energy or Vistra more undervalued?

As of Nov 5, 2026, Constellation Energy is at −67.2% to fair value and Vistra at −81.7%. Constellation Energy is the less overvalued of the two. Model-based estimate, not financial advice. The fair value of Vistra carries the note "Extreme value": read it with caution.

Which has higher quality, Constellation Energy or Vistra?

Constellation Energy has a quality score of 44/100 and Vistra 39/100. Constellation Energy leads on quality.

STOCK COMPARISON

Constellation Energy vs Vistra: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) compare, as of Nov 5, 2026.

As of Nov 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Constellation Energy as the less overvalued of the two: Constellation Energy trades at $240 versus a fair value of $78.55 (−67.2%), while Vistra trades at $113 versus $20.68 (−81.7%). The fair value of Vistra carries the note "Extreme value": read it with caution.

Constellation Energy

CEG · USD · Utilities

−67.2%

upside to fair value

overvalued

Price$240

Fair Value$78.55

Quality44/100

Fair ValueQualityUptrend

Vistra

VST · USD · Utilities

−81.7%

upside to fair value

overvalued

Extreme value

Price$113

Fair Value$20.68

Quality39/100

Fair ValueQualityUptrend

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Head-to-head numbers

Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.

betterweakerfor reference, not scored

Constellation EnergyVistra

Valuation

23.4×P/E (TTM)19.0×

32.4×P/E ex one-offs (FY2025)51.8×

18.0×Forward P/E (FY2027)10.9×

n/aMedian P/E at FY-end (6 FY, ex one-offs where documented)11.3×

2.75×P/S (TTM)2.63×

5.93×P/B9.87× · book value is mostly goodwill

11.3×EV/EBITDA9.9×

3.74×PEG0.34×

−67.2%Fair value upside−81.7%

0.7%Dividend yield0.8%

$1.63Dividend per share$0.91

Profitability

8.7%Operating margin13.8%

8.07×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.59×

15.1%Return on equity43.0%

4.1%Return on assets2.3%

Growth

23.0%Revenue growth (YoY)-5.5%

1.5%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-1.6%

7.7%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)8.9%

+30.7%Value creation/yr+6.2%

Balance & size

6.0×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)1.1×

0.50×Debt / equity3.10×

$86BMarket cap$50B

healthyGrowth qualityexpensive

The P/E excluding one-off items is scored: for at least one of the two companies, special items (write-downs, restructuring, litigation) move the reported P/E by 15 % or more. The trailing P/E is shown for reference.

Vistra, median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 11.3.

Forward P/E: price divided by the analyst consensus for the first fiscal year that has not started yet. The current year carries special items from quarters already reported.

Constellation Energy leads: 9 to 6 metric wins.

n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Constellation Energy Vistra

ProfitabilityHow much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality GrowthAre margins and returns getting better?

CashflowDo the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strengthDebt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

InvestmentDoes it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low VolatilityHow calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentumPrice momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week highDistance to the 52-week high, does not count

New sharesBuys back shares or issues new ones?

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model family	Constellation EnergyPrice $240	VistraPrice $113
DCF Models	−64.2%below the price$85.84	−93.7%below the price$7.10
Earnings-Based	−80.7%below the price$46.37	−86.8%below the price$14.88
Dividend Discount	−91.8%below the price$19.58	−81.3%below the price$21.13
Multiples	−52.6%below the price$114	−56.4%below the price$49.22
Asset-Based	−88.9%below the price$26.66	n/a
Growth DCF	−69.1%below the price$74.05	−97.5%below the price$2.82
Economic Profit	−79.2%below the price$49.96	−81.7%below the price$20.68
Growth Earnings	−59.1%below the price$98.11	−61.3%below the price$43.65
Matching families	7 of 8
Minimum	−91.8%below the price$19.58	−97.5%below the price$2.82
Maximum	−52.6%below the price$114	−56.4%below the price$49.22
Median	−69.1%below the price$74.05	−81.7%below the price$20.68
Geometric mean	−74.5%below the price$61.19	−85.7%below the price$16.09
Ahead family by family	6 of 7	1 of 7

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean only use the families both stocks have (matching families: 7 of 8), so a family without a value on one side does not distort the comparison. Ahead in a family is the stock whose fair value there sits higher relative to its price. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Family by family: Constellation Energy is ahead in 6 of 7 shared families, Vistra in 1.

Constellation Energy: 25 of 25 models see the stock below the current price.

Vistra: 19 of 19 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

Constellation Energy

Price $240

Fair Value $78.55

Bear $45.87Bull $108

Vistra

Price $113

Fair Value $20.68

Bear $20.09Bull $29.76

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Constellation Energy · Utilities

Quality score44 · below median

Fair value upside−67.2% · bottom 25%

Vistra · Utilities

Quality score39 · below median

Fair value upside−81.7% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

Constellation Energy has the higher quality score (44/100).

Open Constellation Energy live analysis →

Constellation Energy · Vistra

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.