Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Constellation Energy Corp stock $78.55, price $240, that is 67.2% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 67% below what the stock costs today.
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +7.7 %/yr in USD)
Solidly profitable · 11.1% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
0.7% dividend yield · Well covered
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +23% vs. a year ago.
Quality 44/100
Moderate moat55/100
Neutral coverage
Insiders bought $417,930 (6M)
Fair value $78.55 · Strongly overvalued (−67.2%)
Trails peers(5/15)
⚠ Dilution
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩FERC rejection of PJM data center framework🚩AI efficiency cuts data center power demand🚩FERC and PJM rules on co-location and capacity🚩High debt from Calpine acquisition
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $40.33 – $401.70 · fair‑value band $45.87 – $108.42 · the $239.65 price screens above the $78.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Constellation Energy Corporation produces and sells energy products and services in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It offers electricity, natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions.
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The company has approximately 31,676 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities, municipalities, cooperatives, and commercial, industrial, public sector, and residential customers.
The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.
Stock analysis
Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) currently trades at $239.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $78.55, 67% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $111.27 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $239.65 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $17.79, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $45.87 (bear) to $108.42 (bull), the price of $239.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Constellation Energy Corp reported revenue of $25.5B in FY2025 versus $19.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.3B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $86.1B Large · P/E ratio 23.4 · P/S ratio 2.75 · EPS (TTM) $10.23 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 15.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −67%, CEG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$45.87Fair Value $78.55Bull$108.42
Price $239.65 · Downside -67.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.31 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$36.30$56.18$83.5680
Growth DCF$37.39$55.58$79.4978
Owner Earnings$28.52$45.05$67.8276
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$36.30$56.18$83.5680
Owner Earnings$28.52$45.05$67.8276
5Y Revenue Exit$53.97$92.41$140.3871
5Y EBITDA Exit$73.40$127.24$188.1474
5Y P/E Exit$55.85$95.79$135.9870
10Y Revenue Exit$44.48$77.03$118.3765
10Y EBITDA Exit$58.57$100.11$152.5867
10Y P/E Exit$47.83$79.27$115.2163
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$44.51$109.82$142.2565
PEG = 1.0$19.84$28.34$36.8457
EPV$38.72$46.37$52.9774
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$12.02$21.37$32.9467
DDM Multi-Stage$12.02$17.79$23.8167
Multiples
P/E Multiple$88.36$117.81$147.2763
P/S Multiple$83.45$111.27$139.0858
P/B Multiple$53.71$71.62$89.5255
EV/EBIT$83.19$115.85$148.5166
EV/EBITDA$105.58$145.71$185.8467
EV/Revenue$64.46$98.43$132.4053
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$19.89$26.66$39.7954
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$37.39$55.58$79.4978
Rev-Margin DCF$53.97$92.51$134.0372
Economic Profit
Residual Income$41.55$51.60$71.7475
ROIC Compounder$38.72$48.32$59.9472
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$68.68$98.11$127.5567
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $417,930, on Aug 11, 2026.
BuyRoger W CrandallDirector1,500 shares at $278.62$417,930Aug 11, 2026
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+30.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.0% vs 11.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.0% a year for the price and +7.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Nuclear scale and long-term supply deals give moderate moat signals and ROE support, yet commodity power pricing and regulatory hurdles limit durability and innovation visibility.
Main risk: More efficient AI models could slow the growth in hyperscaler electricity needs and reduce demand for Constellation's contracted nuclear output.
Bull case: Long-term PPAs with Google, Amazon and Microsoft plus uprates at existing plants could lock in premium revenue and offset slower AI demand growth through higher utilization of reliable carbon-free capacity.
Bear case: If hyperscaler spending slows or regulators tighten co-location and capacity rules, Constellation could face lower contracted volumes, delayed projects and higher financing costs that limit output growth.
Constellation has secured long-term nuclear supply deals with tech giants to power AI data centers. Yet FERC's rejection of PJM's data center framework just days after the Google agreement highlights ongoing regulatory hurdles for new capacity. Our models see the stock as overvalued amid the heavier debt from the Calpine deal. Will operational strengths in nuclear outweigh these constraints, or will rules and leverage cap the gains?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 76 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−67.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)11.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)23.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.50× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Constellation Energy Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CEG
Frequently asked questions
Is Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $78.55 versus a price of $239.65, about 67% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CEG?
Our model-based fair value for Constellation Energy Corp is $78.55 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $239.65.
What is the quality score of CEG?
Constellation Energy Corp has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $78.55 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $45.87, optimistic scenario $108.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Constellation Energy Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $78.55, about 67% lower versus a price of $239.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $45.87, optimistic scenario $108.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
Constellation Energy Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $31.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Constellation Energy Corp pay a dividend?
Constellation Energy Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 0.68% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Constellation Energy Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +33.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CEG use?
Our models discount Constellation Energy Corp at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.13, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Constellation Energy Corp that is +33.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Constellation Energy Corp grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies +33.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Constellation Energy Corp (+33.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.52 %: that much free cash flow Constellation Energy Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Constellation Energy Corp it is $78.55 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $239.65. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Constellation Energy Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CEG trades above its calculated fair value: price $239.65, fair value $78.55, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CEG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($239.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($78.55). For Constellation Energy Corp the two are $161.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Constellation Energy Corp worth?
The market values Constellation Energy Corp at about $86.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $239.65; our models calculate a fair value of $78.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CEG?
Our models span a range for Constellation Energy Corp: cautious scenario $45.87, base $78.55, optimistic $108.42 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $239.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CEG?
Constellation Energy Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $78.55 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.7, P/B 5.9, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
What is the PEG ratio of CEG?
The PEG ratio of Constellation Energy Corp is 3.74 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Constellation Energy Corp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 15.1%, debt of 0.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CEG from its 52-week high?
Constellation Energy Corp trades at $239.65, about 36% below its 52-week high of $376.93 and 1% above the low of $236.14 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $78.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Constellation Energy Corp?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, Gulf Development Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Constellation Energy Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $239.65, calculated fair value $78.55 (−67%), Quality Score 44/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CEG calculated?
We run Constellation Energy Corp through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $78.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Constellation Energy Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $239.65. Our model-based fair value is $78.55, about 67% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Constellation Energy Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($108.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($45.87 to $108.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) come from?
Earnings per share at Constellation Energy Corp grew +12.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin +5.0 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Constellation Energy Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
The market capitalisation of Constellation Energy Corp is $86.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Constellation Energy Corp is 2.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
Earnings per share at Constellation Energy Corp are $10.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
The dividend yield of Constellation Energy Corp is 0.7% (payout 15.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
The net margin of Constellation Energy Corp is 11.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Constellation Energy Corp is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Constellation Energy Corp is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
The operating margin of Constellation Energy Corp is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
Revenue at Constellation Energy Corp is growing +23.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)?
Earnings per share at Constellation Energy Corp are growing −46.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) carry?
The net debt of Constellation Energy Corp is $5.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026