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STOCK COMPARISON

ConocoPhillips vs Marathon Petroleum: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how ConocoPhillips (COP) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) compare, as of Sep 7, 2026.

As of Sep 7, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees ConocoPhillips as the less overvalued of the two: ConocoPhillips trades at $134 versus a fair value of $90.15 (-33%), while Marathon Petroleum trades at $389 versus $133 (-66%).
ConocoPhillips
COP · USD · Energy
-33%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$134
Fair Value$90.15
Quality58/100
Marathon Petroleum
MPC · USD · Energy
-66%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$389
Fair Value$133
Quality61/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

ConocoPhillipsMarathon Petroleum
Valuation
18.2×P/E (TTM)18.7×
2.22×P/S (TTM)0.61×
2.04×P/B4.78×
6.3×EV/EBITDA10.7×
0.94×PEG1.41×
−32.9%Fair value upside−65.8%
2.4%Dividend yield1.0%
$3.24Dividend per share$3.91
Profitability
22%Operating margin4%
11%Return on equity27%
6%Return on assets5%
Growth
-5%Revenue growth (YoY)9%
-9.3%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-9.2%
25.6%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)13.7%
+3.6%Value creation/yr+10.1%
Balance & size
9.3×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)4.1×
0.34×Debt / equity1.76×
$132BMarket cap$83B
weakGrowth qualityweak

ConocoPhillips leads: 11 to 3 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

ConocoPhillipsof which business quality 61 · market factors 76 Marathon Petroleumof which business quality 57 · market factors 93
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
42
53
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
31
35
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
96
50
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
69
33
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
62
99
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
83
78
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
64
100
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
90
100
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
54
100

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyConocoPhillipsPrice $134Marathon PetroleumPrice $389
DCF Models+2%close to the price$137-69%below the price$120
Earnings-Based-68%below the price$42.34-78%below the price$84.34
Dividend Discount-59%below the price$54.97-86%below the price$55.80
Multiples-35%below the price$86.74-65%below the price$136
Asset-Based-74%below the price$35.46-90%below the price$39.74
Growth DCF+14%close to the price$153-58%below the price$162
Economic Profit-60%below the price$54.19-72%below the price$108
Growth Earnings-39%below the price$81.65-59%below the price$161
Minimum-74%below the price$35.46-90%below the price$39.74
Maximum+14%close to the price$153-58%below the price$162
Median-49%below the price$68.31-71%below the price$114
Geometric mean-47%below the price$71.22-75%below the price$98.02

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

ConocoPhillips: 20 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.

Marathon Petroleum: 25 of 25 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

ConocoPhillips
Bear $67.61Fair Value $90.15Bull $113
$134 = current price (white tick)
Marathon Petroleum
Bear $74.68Fair Value $133Bull $209
$389 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

ConocoPhillips · Energy

Quality score58 · above median
Fair value upside-33% · below median

Marathon Petroleum · Energy

Quality score61 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-66% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 7, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees ConocoPhillips as the less overvalued of the two: ConocoPhillips trades at $134 versus a fair value of $90.15 (-33%), while Marathon Petroleum trades at $389 versus $133 (-66%).

Marathon Petroleum has the higher quality score (61/100).

See the full analysis →
ConocoPhillips · Marathon Petroleum

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.