ConocoPhillips vs Marathon Petroleum: Fair Value & Quality
Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how ConocoPhillips (COP) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) compare, as of Oct 25, 2026.
Head-to-head numbers
Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.
betterweakerfor reference, not scored
ConocoPhillips leads: 9 to 5 metric wins.
Group holding company: MPC (69 %) consolidates subsidiaries in full but owns only the stated share. Revenue, EBITDA and margin ratios are therefore restated for its own shareholders; earnings per share, P/E and return on equity already were.
n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.
Quality in detail
The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.
What the models say
How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.
▲above the price, more than 15% above ●close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price ▼below the price, more than 15% below
| Model family | ConocoPhillipsPrice $151 | Marathon PetroleumPrice $457 |
|---|---|---|
| DCF Models | ●−1.0%close to the price$149 | ▼−69.8%below the price$138 |
| Earnings-Based | ▼−69.1%below the price$46.55 | ▼−84.6%below the price$70.38 |
| Dividend Discount | ▼−56.7%below the price$65.34 | ▼−90.5%below the price$43.32 |
| Multiples | ▼−42.6%below the price$86.50 | ▼−81.6%below the price$84.07 |
| Asset-Based | ▼−77.4%below the price$34.03 | ▼−97.4%below the price$12.04 |
| Growth DCF | ▲+21.4%above the price$183 | ▼−65.8%below the price$156 |
| Economic Profit | ▼−59.3%below the price$61.41 | ▼−80.3%below the price$90.05 |
| Growth Earnings | ▼−45.1%below the price$82.81 | ▼−64.8%below the price$161 |
| Minimum | ▼−77.4%below the price$34.03 | ▼−97.4%below the price$12.04 |
| Maximum | ▲+21.4%above the price$183 | ▼−64.8%below the price$161 |
| Median | ▼−50.9%below the price$74.07 | ▼−81.0%below the price$87.06 |
| Geometric mean | ▼−48.9%below the price$77.07 | ▼−83.7%below the price$74.64 |
Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.
ConocoPhillips: 21 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.
Marathon Petroleum: 25 of 25 models see the stock below the current price.
Scenario ranges
From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.
Compare two other stocks
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Ranked within their sector
Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
Marathon Petroleum · Energy
Bottom line
As of Oct 25, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees ConocoPhillips as the less overvalued of the two: ConocoPhillips trades at $151 versus a fair value of $91.42 (−39.4%), while Marathon Petroleum trades at $457 versus $105 (−76.9%).
ConocoPhillips has the higher quality score (66/100).
Open ConocoPhillips live analysis →More comparisons
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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.