STOCK COMPARISON
Duke Energy vs Vistra: Fair Value & Quality
Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Duke Energy (DUK) and Vistra (VST) compare, as of Aug 10, 2026.
As of Aug 10, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Duke Energy as the less overvalued of the two: Duke Energy trades at $125 versus a fair value of $97.11 (-22%), while Vistra trades at $141 versus $85.66 (-39%).
Duke Energy
DUK · USD · Utilities
-22%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$125
Fair Value$97.11
Quality44/100
Vistra
VST · USD · Utilities
-39%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$141
Fair Value$85.66
Quality42/100
Head-to-head numbers
Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).
Duke EnergyVistra
Valuation
19.1×P/E (TTM)26.6×
3.01×P/S (TTM)2.76×
1.90×P/B10.48×
10.8×EV/EBITDA10.1×
2.47×PEG0.47×
3.4%Dividend yield0.6%
$4.24Dividend per share$0.91
Profitability
16%Net margin12%
26%Operating margin27%
10%Return on equity43%
3%Return on assets6%
Growth
11%Revenue growth (YoY)43%
3.9%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-1.6%
6.6%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)8.9%
Balance & size
1.55×Debt / equity3.10×
$98BMarket cap$54B
expensiveGrowth qualityexpensive
Vistra leads: 6 to 8 metric wins.
Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.
Quality in detail
The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.
Duke Energyof which business quality 41 · market factors 62
Vistraof which business quality 38 · market factors 19
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
30
33
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
36
1
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
50
51
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
12
6
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
59
51
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
99
27
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
44
23
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
49
5
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
77
100
What the models say
The median fair value (base case) per model family, each in the currency of its trading venue. Green = above the current price, red = below.
Duke Energy
Earnings-Based$30.46
Dividend Discount$68.61
Multiples$96.04
Asset-Based$44.55
Economic Profit$35.83
Growth Earnings$97.11
15 of 15 models see the stock below the current price.
Vistra
DCF Models$41.15
Earnings-Based$14.81
Dividend Discount$24.74
Multiples$37.44
Asset-Based$10.15
Economic Profit$22.72
Growth Earnings$43.45
16 of 16 models see the stock below the current price.
Scenario ranges
From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.
Duke Energy
Bear $67.98Fair Value $97.11Bull $129
$125 = current price (white tick)
Vistra
Bear $30.44Fair Value $85.66Bull $97.02
$141 = current price (white tick)
Compare two other stocks
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Ranked within their sector
Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.
Duke Energy · Utilities
Quality score44 · below median
Fair value upside-22% · below median
Vistra · Utilities
Quality score42 · below median
Fair value upside-39% · below median
Bottom line
As of Aug 10, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Duke Energy as the less overvalued of the two: Duke Energy trades at $125 versus a fair value of $97.11 (-22%), while Vistra trades at $141 versus $85.66 (-39%).
Duke Energy has the higher quality score (44/100).
See the full analysis →
More comparisons
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A model-based valuation snapshot from 21 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.
