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STOCK COMPARISON

First Watch Restaurant Group vs McDonald’s: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) and McDonald’s (MCD) compare, as of Sep 24, 2026.

As of Sep 24, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees McDonald’s as the less overvalued of the two: First Watch Restaurant Group trades at $10.20 versus a fair value of $5.36 (-47%), while McDonald’s trades at $238 versus $162 (-32%).
First Watch Restaurant Group
FWRG · USD · Consumer Discretionary
-47%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$10.20
Fair Value$5.36
Quality38/100
McDonald’s
MCD · USD · Consumer Discretionary
-32%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$238
Fair Value$162
Quality69/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.

betterweakerfor reference, not scored

First Watch Restaurant GroupMcDonald’s
Valuation
36.4×P/E (TTM)19.6×
0.57×P/S (TTM)7.11×
1.16×P/BNegative equity
8.6×EV/EBITDA15.8×
n/aPEG2.56×
−47.5%Fair value upside−32.0%
n/aDividend yield3.0%
n/aDividend per share$7.26
Profitability
1%Operating margin44%
n/aEBIT margin trend (5Y)1.21×
3%Return on equityNegative equity
1%Return on assets14%
Growth
17%Revenue growth (YoY)9%
18.7%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)5.1%
29.0%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)7.0%
+29.3%Value creation/yr+11.7%
Balance & size
2.0×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)7.8×
0.43×Debt / equityNegative equity
$728MMarket cap$195B
expensiveGrowth qualityhealthy

McDonald’s leads: 5 to 6 metric wins.

n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

First Watch Restaurant Groupof which business quality 40 · market factors 21 McDonald’sof which business quality 65 · market factors 40
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
26
64
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
47
46
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
38
76
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
29
53
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
42
57
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
35
95
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
25
23
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
1
6
Net IssuanceShare count: buybacks or dilution?
70
91

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyFirst Watch Restaurant GroupPrice $10.20McDonald’sPrice $238
DCF Modelsn/a-43%below the price$137
Earnings-Based-34%below the price$6.69-57%below the price$102
Dividend Discountn/a-59%below the price$98.39
Multiples-45%below the price$5.60-6%close to the price$225
Asset-Based-33%below the price$6.81n/a
Growth DCFn/a-68%below the price$76.15
Economic Profit-66%below the price$3.52-52%below the price$113
Growth Earnings-10%close to the price$9.17-12%close to the price$209
Minimum-66%below the price$3.52-68%below the price$76.15
Maximum-10%close to the price$9.17-6%close to the price$225
Median-34%below the price$6.69-52%below the price$113
Geometric mean-41%below the price$6.07-46%below the price$128

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

First Watch Restaurant Group: 12 of 14 models see the stock below the current price.

McDonald’s: 19 of 21 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

First Watch Restaurant Group
Price $10.20
Fair Value $5.36
Bear $5.36Bull $8.67
McDonald’s
Price $238
Fair Value $162
Bear $91.48Bull $251

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

First Watch Restaurant Group · Consumer Discretionary

Quality score38 · bottom 25%
Fair value upside-47% · bottom 25%

McDonald’s · Consumer Discretionary

Quality score69 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-32% · below median

Bottom line

As of Sep 24, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees McDonald’s as the less overvalued of the two: First Watch Restaurant Group trades at $10.20 versus a fair value of $5.36 (-47%), while McDonald’s trades at $238 versus $162 (-32%).

McDonald’s has the higher quality score (69/100).

Open McDonald’s live analysis →
First Watch Restaurant Group · McDonald’s

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.