McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of McDonald’s Corporation stock $163, price $278, that is 41.4% below the price, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $199.79 – $334.50 · fair‑value band $91.85 – $252.06 · the $278.04 price screens above the $162.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally.
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It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions.
The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) currently trades at $278.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $162.81, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $209.89 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $278.04 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $32.39, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $91.85 (bear) to $252.06 (bull), the price of $278.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
McDonald’s Corporation reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $23.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was $8.6B in FY2025, compounding +3.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $198B Large · P/E ratio 22.6 · P/S ratio 7.16 · EPS (TTM) $12.31 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 31.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.1% · Operating margin 46.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 92 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −41%, MCD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$91.85Fair Value $162.81Bull$252.06
Price $278.04 · Downside -41.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.21 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleChristopher J KempczinskiChairman and CEO, Director52,553 shares at $332.44$17.5MFeb 13, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEdith Morgan FlatleyEVP - Global CMO2× since Dec 12, 2025: 5,350 shares, avg. $329.03$1.8MFeb 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleManuel JM SteijaertEVP - President, IOM6,567 shares at $305.50$2.0MDec 1, 202510b5-1 plan
SaleIan Frederick BordenEVP - CFO17,134 shares at $310.00$5.3MNov 21, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.7% vs 9.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 46%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.5% a year for the price and +0.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Solid brand and operational strengths are offset by limited innovation signals together with negative equity and elevated debt.
Main risk: Chains such as Dave’s Hot Chicken and Sweetgreen with robotic automation or vertically integrated platforms like Wonder could attract customers to specialized menus or delivery models and force McDonald’s to lower prices or margins in burgers and chicken.
Bull case: By scaling its ArchIQ platform and menu adjustments McDonald’s could integrate automation faster than rivals and retain customers through improved efficiency and broader appeal.
Bear case: If specialized rivals and delivery platforms continue gaining share while labor compliance burdens rise McDonald’s could face sustained traffic losses and higher costs that erode systemwide profitability.
McDonald’s posted global comparable sales growth of 1.5 percent in the third quarter, led by international markets, while the U.S. saw its first decline in six quarters as traffic dropped amid stretched consumers. The company has begun testing new value menu formats and plans a nationwide rollout early next year. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the value initiative rebuild U.S. traffic without eroding the advantages of the franchise model?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 202 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−41.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets14.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)31.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)46.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.6× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)7.16× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)27.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.78× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)19· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)53· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "McDonald’s Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCD
Frequently asked questions
Is McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $162.81 versus a price of $278.04, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCD?
Our model-based fair value for McDonald’s Corporation is $162.81 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $278.04.
What is the quality score of MCD?
McDonald’s Corporation has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $162.81 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $91.85, optimistic scenario $252.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the McDonald’s Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $162.81, about 41% lower versus a price of $278.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $91.85, optimistic scenario $252.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
McDonald’s Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $27.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does McDonald’s Corporation pay a dividend?
McDonald’s Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 2.64% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, McDonald’s Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.0 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MCD use?
Our models discount McDonald’s Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For McDonald’s Corporation that is +14.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at McDonald’s Corporation grew +7.0 % a year. The price currently implies +14.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into McDonald’s Corporation (+14.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.62 %: that much free cash flow McDonald’s Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For McDonald’s Corporation it is $162.81 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $278.04. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is McDonald’s Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MCD trades above its calculated fair value: price $278.04, fair value $162.81, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($278.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($162.81). For McDonald’s Corporation the two are $115.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is McDonald’s Corporation worth?
The market values McDonald’s Corporation at about $198B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $278.04; our models calculate a fair value of $162.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCD?
Our models span a range for McDonald’s Corporation: cautious scenario $91.85, base $162.81, optimistic $252.06 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $278.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCD?
McDonald’s Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $162.81 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 25.5. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/S 7.2, EV/EBITDA 15.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MCD?
The PEG ratio of McDonald’s Corporation is 2.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
Balance-sheet figures for McDonald’s Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCD from its 52-week high?
McDonald’s Corporation trades at $278.04, about 17% below its 52-week high of $334.50 and 20% above the low of $230.88 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $162.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to McDonald’s Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Restaurant Brands International Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is McDonald’s Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $278.04, calculated fair value $162.81 (−41%), Quality Score 69/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCD calculated?
We run McDonald’s Corporation through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $162.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. McDonald’s Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $278.04. Our model-based fair value is $162.81, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with McDonald’s Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($252.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($91.85 to $252.06). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) come from?
Earnings per share at McDonald’s Corporation grew +9.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.0 %, EBIT margin +5.0 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of McDonald’s Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
The market capitalisation of McDonald’s Corporation is $198B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of McDonald’s Corporation is 7.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
Earnings per share at McDonald’s Corporation are $12.31 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
The dividend yield of McDonald’s Corporation is 2.6% (payout 59.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
The net margin of McDonald’s Corporation is 31.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of McDonald’s Corporation is 20.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
The operating margin of McDonald’s Corporation is 46.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
Revenue at McDonald’s Corporation is growing +3.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
Earnings per share at McDonald’s Corporation are growing +5.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) carry?
The net debt of McDonald’s Corporation is $54.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026