First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $728M
First Watch Restaurant Group
FWRG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $6.93 to $5.36 (−22.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 57% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $10.11 – $25.52 · fair‑value band $5.08 – $8.67 · the $12.42 price screens above the $5.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) currently trades at $12.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.36, implying the stock looks roughly 56.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, First Watch Restaurant Group generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue grew 17.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.9%. Net debt stands at $987M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.08 (bear case) to $8.67 (bull case); at $12.42, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -57%, FWRG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($9.17) versus Economic Profit ($0.4600). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
Full company description
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
First Watch Restaurant Group reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $601M in FY2021, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was $19.4M in FY2025.
FWRG screens 57% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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