First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc $5.36, price $10.20, upside -47.5%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.11 – $25.52 · fair‑value band $5.36 – $8.67 · the $10.20 price screens above the $5.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.
Stock analysis
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) currently trades at $10.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.36, implying the stock looks roughly 90.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $9.17 per share, and 2 of the 14 models we run sit above the $10.20 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $5.36, and 12 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.36 (bear) to $8.67 (bull), the price of $10.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $601M in FY2021, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was $19.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $728M · P/E ratio 36.4 · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) $0.2800 · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −47%, FWRG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.36Fair Value $5.36Bull $8.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2048 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+29.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 3%
Compare First Watch Restaurant Group Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 224 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−48% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.43× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)36.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.16× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.57× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA8.6× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)87· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Watch Restaurant Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FWRG
Frequently asked questions
Is First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.36 versus a price of $10.20, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FWRG?
Our model-based fair value for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is $5.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.20.
What is the quality score of FWRG?
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.36, optimistic scenario $8.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Watch Restaurant Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.36, about −47% upside versus a price of $10.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.36, optimistic scenario $8.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Watch Restaurant Group Inc it is $5.36 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.20. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First Watch Restaurant Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FWRG trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.20, fair value $5.36, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FWRG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.36). For First Watch Restaurant Group Inc the two are $4.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Watch Restaurant Group Inc worth?
The market values First Watch Restaurant Group Inc at about $728M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.20; our models calculate a fair value of $5.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FWRG?
Our models span a range for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc: cautious scenario $5.36, base $5.36, optimistic $8.67 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FWRG?
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.9%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FWRG from its 52-week high?
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc trades at $10.20, about 45% below its 52-week high of $18.66 and 1% above the low of $10.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Watch Restaurant Group Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Watch Restaurant Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.20, calculated fair value $5.36 (−47%), Quality Score 38/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FWRG calculated?
We run First Watch Restaurant Group Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. First Watch Restaurant Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $10.20. Our model-based fair value is $5.36, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Watch Restaurant Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The market capitalisation of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is $728M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Earnings per share at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc are $0.2800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The net margin of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The operating margin of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Revenue at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Earnings per share at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc are growing +22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) generate?
The free cash flow of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is −$31.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) carry?
The net debt of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is $987M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026