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First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $728M

Price$11.15
Fair Value$6.93
Upside-37.8%
Quality95/100
Evidence: Medium Range $5.20 – $8.67

Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026

Analysis

First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) currently trades at $11.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.93 — implying the stock looks roughly 37.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 95/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

About the company

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.

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Frequently asked questions

Is First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.93 versus a price of $11.15 — about −38% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.
What is the fair value of FWRG?
Our 21-model fair value for First Watch Restaurant Group is $6.93 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $11.15.
What is the quality score of FWRG?
First Watch Restaurant Group has a Quality Score of 95/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.