Hilton vs Marriott: Fair Value & Quality
Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Hilton (HLT) and Marriott (MAR) compare, as of Nov 4, 2026.
Head-to-head numbers
Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.
betterweakerfor reference, not scored
Marriott leads: 5 to 8 metric wins.
n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.
Quality in detail
The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.
What the models say
How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.
▲above the price, more than 15% above ●close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price ▼below the price, more than 15% below
| Model family | HiltonPrice $377 | MarriottPrice $425 |
|---|---|---|
| DCF Models | ▼−63.7%below the price$137 | ▼−65.2%below the price$148 |
| Earnings-Based | ▼−81.2%below the price$70.65 | ▼−83.5%below the price$70.29 |
| Dividend Discount | ▼−97.2%below the price$10.53 | ▼−89.8%below the price$43.17 |
| Multiples | ▼−69.9%below the price$113 | ▼−63.8%below the price$154 |
| Growth DCF | ▼−68.8%below the price$117 | ▼−72.6%below the price$116 |
| Economic Profit | ▼−81.8%below the price$68.69 | ▼−77.7%below the price$94.88 |
| Growth Earnings | ▼−67.9%below the price$121 | ▼−54.9%below the price$191 |
| Matching families | 7 of 7 | |
| Minimum | ▼−97.2%below the price$10.53 | ▼−89.8%below the price$43.17 |
| Maximum | ▼−63.7%below the price$137 | ▼−54.9%below the price$191 |
| Median | ▼−69.9%below the price$113 | ▼−72.6%below the price$116 |
| Geometric mean | ▼−80.6%below the price$73.16 | ▼−75.2%below the price$106 |
| Ahead family by family | 3 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean only use the families both stocks have (matching families: 7 of 7), so a family without a value on one side does not distort the comparison. Ahead in a family is the stock whose fair value there sits higher relative to its price. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.
Family by family: Marriott is ahead in 4 of 7 shared families, Hilton in 3.
Hilton: 22 of 22 models see the stock below the current price.
Marriott: 23 of 23 models see the stock below the current price.
Scenario ranges
From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.
Compare two other stocks
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Ranked within their sector
Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.
Hilton · Consumer Discretionary
Marriott · Consumer Discretionary
Bottom line
As of Nov 4, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Hilton as the less overvalued of the two: Hilton trades at $377 versus a fair value of $271 (−28.0%), while Marriott trades at $425 versus $151 (−64.4%).
Hilton has the higher quality score (77/100).
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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.