Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $108.41 – $350.22 · fair‑value band $114.90 – $307.32 · the $307.08 price screens above the $244.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks.
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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors brand names. The company has operations in North America, South America, and Central America, including various Caribbean nations; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) currently trades at $307.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $244.14, implying the stock looks roughly 25.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $120.80 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $307.08 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $52.61, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $114.90 (bear) to $307.32 (bull), the price of $307.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc reported revenue of $12.0B in FY2025 versus $5.8B in FY2021, a compound +20.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +37.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $73.1B · P/E ratio 46.8 · P/S ratio 5.67 · EPS (TTM) $6.56 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.0% · Operating margin 57.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −21%, HLT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $114.90Fair Value $244.14Bull $307.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22% vs 12%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−10% → 22%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 163 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−61% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)30% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)57% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)46.8× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)14.63× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF36.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA28.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.60× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)6· sector 10
FUTURE (revenue growth)55· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 26
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $244.14 versus a price of $307.08, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HLT?
Our model-based fair value for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is $244.14 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $307.08.
What is the quality score of HLT?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $244.14 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $114.90, optimistic scenario $307.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $244.14, about −21% upside versus a price of $307.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $114.90, optimistic scenario $307.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +22.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.8 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLT use?
Our models discount Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc that is +22.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc grew +22.8 % a year. The price currently implies +22.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (+22.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.79 %: that much free cash flow Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc it is $244.14 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $307.08. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, HLT trades above its calculated fair value: price $307.08, fair value $244.14, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($307.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($244.14). For Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc the two are $62.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc at about $73.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $307.08; our models calculate a fair value of $244.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLT?
Our models span a range for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $114.90, base $244.14, optimistic $307.32 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $307.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HLT?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.8 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $244.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/S 14.6, EV/EBITDA 28.5.
What is the PEG ratio of HLT?
The PEG ratio of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 1.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How far is HLT from its 52-week high?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc trades at $307.08, about 11% below its 52-week high of $344.59 and 27% above the low of $240.96 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $244.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $307.08, calculated fair value $244.14 (−21%), Quality Score 76/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLT calculated?
We run Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $244.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $307.08. Our model-based fair value is $244.14, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide ($114.90 to $307.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) come from?
Earnings per share at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc grew +9.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.1 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The market capitalisation of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is $73.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 5.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Earnings per share at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc are $6.56 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The dividend yield of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 0.2% (payout 9.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The net margin of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 12.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 13.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The operating margin of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 57.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Revenue at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is growing +11.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Earnings per share at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc are growing +35.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) carry?
The net debt of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is $14.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 18, 2026