Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc stock $271, price $370, that is 26.7% below the price, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $108.36 – $376.53 · fair‑value band $165.82 – $360.16 · the $369.64 price screens above the $271.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks.
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It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors brand names.
The company has operations in North America, South America, and Central America, including various Caribbean nations; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) currently trades at $369.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $271.08, 27% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $135.54 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $369.64 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $62.62, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $165.82 (bear) to $360.16 (bull), the price of $369.64 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc reported revenue of $12.0B in FY2025 versus $5.8B in FY2021, a compound +20.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +37.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $84.6B Large · P/E ratio 49.9 · P/S ratio 16.3 · EPS (TTM) $7.41 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 32.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.0% · Operating margin 66.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 84 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −27%, HLT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($9.75 to $192.59). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$165.82Fair Value $271.08Bull$360.16
Price $369.64 · Downside -26.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.78 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $56.2M and none bought.
SaleKevin J JacobsOfficer151,050 shares at $356.19$53.8MOct 29, 2026
SaleChris CarrDirector439 shares at $310.34$136,239Sep 14, 2026
SaleLaura FuentesOfficer7,289 shares at $309.81$2.3MSep 14, 2026
SaleChristopher J NassettaOfficer, Director114,289 shares at $317.47$36.3MFeb 17, 2026
Plus 30 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.2% vs 11.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−10% → 22%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.2% a year for the price and +5.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Hilton's main strength is its brand scale and asset-light model that fuels a record development pipeline, while its main weak point remains elevated leverage with negative equity in a competitive sector.
Main risk: Generative AI platforms and agents might divert bookings from Hilton's direct channels to third-party sites, raising distribution costs and weakening control over guest relationships and loyalty data.
Bull case: Hilton could strengthen its own AI planners and direct channels to capture more bookings and deepen loyalty even as external agents grow.
Bear case: If AI agents dominate discovery and booking, Hilton might lose direct relationships, face higher fees to intermediaries and see its asset-light fee model under pressure from reduced guest control.
Hilton keeps expanding its system through a record development pipeline and record organic room openings in the latest quarter, all while running an asset-light model that generates most earnings from franchise and management fees. Growth in business travel supports the momentum, yet our models still flag the shares as overvalued. Does the pipeline deliver enough durable fee income to justify the premium, or does the valuation already price in more than the business can deliver?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 159 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−26.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets8.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)32.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)66.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)49.9× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $271.08 versus a price of $369.64, about 27% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HLT?
Our model-based fair value for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is $271.08 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $369.64.
What is the quality score of HLT?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $271.08 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $165.82, optimistic scenario $360.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $271.08, about 27% lower versus a price of $369.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $165.82, optimistic scenario $360.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +25.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLT use?
Our models discount Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc that is +25.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc grew +22.8 % a year. The price currently implies +25.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (+25.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.40 %: that much free cash flow Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc it is $271.08 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $369.64. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, HLT trades above its calculated fair value: price $369.64, fair value $271.08, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($369.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($271.08). For Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc the two are $98.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc at about $84.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $369.64; our models calculate a fair value of $271.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLT?
Our models span a range for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $165.82, base $271.08, optimistic $360.16 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $369.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HLT?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $271.08 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2017, FY2023 ex one-offs: 35.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/S 16.3, EV/EBITDA 29.8.
What is the PEG ratio of HLT?
The PEG ratio of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 1.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLT from its 52-week high?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc trades at $369.64, about 2% below its 52-week high of $376.53 and 40% above the low of $263.80 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $271.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, The Indian Hotels Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $369.64, calculated fair value $271.08 (−27%), Quality Score 77/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLT calculated?
We run Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $271.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $369.64. Our model-based fair value is $271.08, about 27% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($360.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($165.82 to $360.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) come from?
Earnings per share at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc grew +9.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.1 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The market capitalisation of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is $84.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 16.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Earnings per share at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc are $7.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 49.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The dividend yield of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 0.2% (payout 8.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The net margin of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 32.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 13.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
The operating margin of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is 66.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Revenue at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)?
Earnings per share at Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc are growing +33.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) carry?
The net debt of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is $14.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026