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STOCK COMPARISON

Holmen AB (publ) vs UPM-Kymmene Oyj: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-B) and UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) compare, as of Sep 5, 2026.

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Holmen AB (publ) trades at SEK 327 versus a fair value of SEK 218 (-33%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €24.24 versus €19.43 (-20%).
Holmen AB (publ)
HOLM-B.ST · SEK · Materials
-33%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceSEK 327
Fair ValueSEK 218
Quality58/100
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
UPM.HE · EUR · Materials
-20%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price€24.24
Fair Value€19.43
Quality60/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Holmen AB (publ)UPM-Kymmene Oyj
Valuation
17.5×P/E (TTM)23.0×
2.08×P/S (TTM)1.51×
0.84×P/B1.44×
14.3×EV/EBITDA14.4×
4.94×PEG12.89×
−33.3%Fair value upside−19.8%
2.9%Dividend yield6.2%
SEK 9.50Dividend per share€1.50
Profitability
12%Operating margin10%
0.70×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.51×
5%Return on equity5%
2%Return on assets2%
Growth
-8%Revenue growth (YoY)-5%
-2.7%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-6.3%
6.2%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)2.4%
+3.0%Value creation/yr−8.3%
Balance & size
17.2×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)4.2×
0.06×Debt / equity0.28×
$5BMarket cap$14B
weakGrowth qualityweak

Holmen AB (publ) leads: 11 to 3 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Holmen AB (publ)of which business quality 56 · market factors 53 UPM-Kymmene Oyjof which business quality 58 · market factors 56
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
27
26
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
29
38
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
45
66
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
70
55
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
86
96
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
95
91
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
38
38
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
32
48
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
100
88

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyHolmen AB (publ)Price SEK 327UPM-Kymmene OyjPrice €24.24
DCF Models-48%below the priceSEK 168-42%below the price€14.17
Earnings-Based-50%below the priceSEK 164-83%below the price€4.21
Dividend Discountn/a-33%below the price€16.20
Multiples-32%below the priceSEK 221-36%below the price€15.45
Asset-Based-26%below the priceSEK 240-48%below the price€12.71
Growth DCF-55%below the priceSEK 148-32%below the price€16.37
Economic Profit-37%below the priceSEK 205-67%below the price€7.88
Growth Earnings-26%below the priceSEK 242-51%below the price€11.81
Minimum-55%below the priceSEK 148-83%below the price€4.21
Maximum-26%below the priceSEK 242-32%below the price€16.37
Median-37%below the priceSEK 205-45%below the price€13.44
Geometric mean-40%below the priceSEK 195-53%below the price€11.42

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Holmen AB (publ): 22 of 22 models see the stock below the current price.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj: 24 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Holmen AB (publ)
Bear SEK 161Fair Value SEK 218Bull SEK 280
SEK 327 = current price (white tick)
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
Bear €14.58Fair Value €19.43Bull €25.27
€24.24 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Holmen AB (publ) · Materials

Quality score58 · above median
Fair value upside-33% · below median

UPM-Kymmene Oyj · Materials

Quality score60 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-20% · above median

Bottom line

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Holmen AB (publ) trades at SEK 327 versus a fair value of SEK 218 (-33%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €24.24 versus €19.43 (-20%).

UPM-Kymmene Oyj has the higher quality score (60/100).

See the full analysis →
Holmen AB (publ) · UPM-Kymmene Oyj

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.