Holmen AB (HOLM-B) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · SE · Market cap 46.5B SEK (≈ $4.9B) · ISIN SE0011090018
What is Holmen AB really worth?
A solid business, but trading 50% above our fair value of kr 217.72.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −0.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 279.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 298.00 – kr 505.18 · fair‑value band kr 160.67 – kr 279.77 · the kr 326.60 price screens above the kr 217.72 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Holmen AB (HOLM-B) currently trades at kr 326.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 217.72, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 241.90 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the kr 326.60 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 129.73, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Holmen AB generated revenue of 22.3B SEK at a net margin of 12.3%. Revenue declined 8.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.0%. Net debt stands at 4.7B SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 160.67 (bear case) to kr 279.77 (bull case); at kr 326.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at −33%, HOLM-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly kr 5.56 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (kr 241.90) versus Earnings-Based (kr 129.73). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Holmen AB (publ) engages in the forest, paperboard, paper, wood products, and renewable energy businesses in Sweden and internationally. The company operates through Forest, Renewable Energy, Wood Products, and Board and Paper segments. Its Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and board and paper mills.
Full company description
Holmen AB (publ) engages in the forest, paperboard, paper, wood products, and renewable energy businesses in Sweden and internationally. The company operates through Forest, Renewable Energy, Wood Products, and Board and Paper segments. Its Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and board and paper mills. The Renewable energy segment provides renewable energy from hydro and wind power to the Nordic electricity market. Its Wood Products segment provides construction and joinery timber; CLT and glulam; and plus wood for pallets and packaging to construction, joinery, and packaging industries, as well as builders' merchants. The Board and Paper segment offers paperboards for consumer packaging and paper products for books, magazines, advertising, and transport packaging to brand owners, converters, wholesalers, publishers, printers, and retailers. The company was founded in 1609 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Holmen AB reported revenue of 22.1B SEK in FY2025 versus 19.5B SEK in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 2.9B SEK in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.0 % · buybacks/dilution +0.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HOLM-B screens 50% overvalued. Compare with UPM-Kymmene Oyj →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Holmen AB (STU:HL9C) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Resilience Amid Market Headwinds
- Kalmar and Holmen continue successful partnership with the extension of a Kalmar Complete Care service agreement
- Holmen AB (HLHLY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...
- Sweden to receive wind-energy lift with EIB loan to Holmen
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 118 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €24.31 | €14.21 | −42% |
| Suzano S.A SUZ | $9.15 | $24.16 | +164% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 111.95 | kr 45.12 | −60% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥13.94 | ¥17.29 | +24% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.92 | HK$8.74 | +10% |
| PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP | 8,800 IDR | 17,945 IDR | +104% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,049 CLP | 1,281 CLP | +22% |
| The Navigator Company NVG | €3.24 | €2.65 | −18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.11 | ¥21.06 | +0% |
| Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM | €20.70 | €24.73 | +19% |
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