Holmen AB (HOLM-B) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · SE · Market cap 46.5B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −1.0% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range kr 298.00 – kr 374.17 · fair‑value band kr 160.67 – kr 279.77 · the kr 307.20 price screens above the kr 217.72 fair value. As of Jul 18, 2026.
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Holmen AB (HOLM-B) currently trades at kr 307.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 217.72, implying the stock looks roughly 29.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Holmen AB generated revenue of 22.3B SEK at a net margin of 12.3%. Revenue declined 8.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.0%. Net debt stands at 4.7B SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 160.67 (bear case) to kr 279.77 (bull case); at kr 307.20, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -29%, HOLM-B screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Holmen AB (publ) engages in the forest, paperboard, paper, wood products, and renewable energy businesses in Sweden and internationally. The company operates through Forest, Renewable Energy, Wood Products, and Board and Paper segments. Its Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and board and paper mills. The Renewable energy segment provides renewable energy from hydro and wind power to the Nordic electricity market. Its Wood Products segment provides construction and joinery timber; CLT and glulam; and plus wood for pallets and packaging to construction, joinery, and packaging industries, as well as builders' merchants. The Board and Paper segment offers paperboards for consumer packaging and paper products for books, magazines, advertising, and transport packaging to brand owners, converters, wholesalers, publishers, printers, and retailers. The company was founded in 1609 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Holmen AB reported revenue of kr 22.1B in FY2025 versus kr 19.5B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was kr 2.9B in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$16.81 | R$3.31 | -80% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPMKF | $29.33 | $17.60 | -40% |
| Suzano S.A SUZB3 | R$41.45 | R$84.96 | +105% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAA | kr 100.00 | kr 25.43 | -75% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥12.75 | ¥17.29 | +36% |
| Mondi plc MNODF | $9.70 | $7.32 | -25% |
| Oji Holdings OJIPY | $55.39 | $66.13 | +19% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.04 | HK$8.99 | +28% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,043 CLP | 1,263 CLP | +21% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥27.28 | ¥25.14 | -8% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.