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STOCK COMPARISON

Japan Tobacco vs Philip Morris International: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Japan Tobacco (JAPAY) and Philip Morris International (PM) compare, as of Sep 24, 2026.

As of Sep 24, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Japan Tobacco as the less overvalued of the two: Japan Tobacco trades at $21.78 versus a fair value of $15.46 (-29%), while Philip Morris International trades at $191 versus $113 (-41%).
Japan Tobacco
JAPAY · USD · Consumer Staples
-29%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$21.78
Fair Value$15.46
Quality66/100
Philip Morris International
PM · USD · Consumer Staples
-41%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$191
Fair Value$113
Quality78/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.

betterweakerfor reference, not scored

Japan TobaccoPhilip Morris International
Valuation
24.8×P/E (TTM)25.6×
3.42×P/S (TTM)7.17×
3.00×P/BNegative equity
12.1×EV/EBITDA18.2×
1.22×PEG2.52×
−29.0%Fair value upside−40.8%
4.0%Dividend yield3.0%
$234Dividend per share$5.76
Profitability
33%Operating margin36%
0.99×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.90×
14%Return on equityNegative equity
7%Return on assets15%
Growth
12%Revenue growth (YoY)9%
11.0%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)8.6%
11.7%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)7.2%
+13.6%Value creation/yr+12.0%
Balance & size
3.9×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)9.4×
0.39×Debt / equityNegative equity
$77BMarket cap$297B
healthyGrowth qualityhealthy

Japan Tobacco leads: 10 to 3 metric wins.

n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Japan Tobaccoof which business quality 60 · market factors 79 Philip Morris Internationalof which business quality 74 · market factors 70
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
47
76
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
79
63
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
51
81
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
48
62
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
73
85
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
91
86
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
70
59
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
82
71
Net IssuanceShare count: buybacks or dilution?
82
80

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyJapan TobaccoPrice $21.78Philip Morris InternationalPrice $191
DCF Models-25%below the price$16.33-45%below the price$105
Earnings-Based-45%below the price$11.91-65%below the price$66.23
Dividend Discountn/a-57%below the price$82.37
Multiples-12%close to the price$19.11-40%below the price$115
Asset-Based-76%below the price$5.15n/a
Growth DCF-47%below the price$11.62-64%below the price$68.07
Economic Profit-55%below the price$9.87-62%below the price$71.82
Growth Earnings-25%below the price$16.38-36%below the price$122
Minimum-76%below the price$5.15-65%below the price$66.23
Maximum-12%close to the price$19.11-36%below the price$122
Median-45%below the price$11.91-57%below the price$82.37
Geometric mean-45%below the price$12.01-54%below the price$87.46

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Japan Tobacco: 20 of 22 models see the stock below the current price.

Philip Morris International: 22 of 22 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

Japan Tobacco
Price $21.78
Fair Value $15.46
Bear $10.24Bull $22.41
Philip Morris International
Price $191
Fair Value $113
Bear $67.10Bull $154

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Japan Tobacco · Consumer Staples

Quality score66 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-29% · below median

Philip Morris International · Consumer Staples

Quality score78 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-41% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 24, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Japan Tobacco as the less overvalued of the two: Japan Tobacco trades at $21.78 versus a fair value of $15.46 (-29%), while Philip Morris International trades at $191 versus $113 (-41%).

Philip Morris International has the higher quality score (78/100).

Open Japan Tobacco live analysis →
Japan Tobacco · Philip Morris International

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.