Japan Tobacco (JAPAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Japan Tobacco $15.46, price $21.78, upside -29.0%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.02 – $22.50 · fair‑value band $10.24 – $22.41 · the $21.78 price screens above the $15.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Japan Tobacco Inc., a tobacco company, engages in the manufacture and sale of tobacco products in Japan and internationally. It operates through two segments: Tobacco Business and Processed Food Business. It offers tobacco products, such as cigarettes, fine cut tobacco products, cigars, pipes, and hookah products.
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Japan Tobacco Inc., a tobacco company, engages in the manufacture and sale of tobacco products in Japan and internationally. It operates through two segments: Tobacco Business and Processed Food Business. It offers tobacco products, such as cigarettes, fine cut tobacco products, cigars, pipes, and hookah products. The company provides reduced-risk products, including heated tobacco, infused tobacco, e-vapor, traditional oral, and modern oral. Further, the company provides frozen and room-temperature products comprising frozen udon noodles, packed rice, and frozen okonomiyaki; and seasonings, including yeast extracts, assembled, kelp and seaweed, and oyster sauces. It offers its products under the Winston, Camel, Möbius, and LD brands. Japan Tobacco Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Japan Tobacco ADR (JAPAY) currently trades at $21.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.46, implying the stock looks roughly 40.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $17.10 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the $21.78 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.15, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.24 (bear) to $22.41 (bull), the price of $21.78 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Japan Tobacco ADR reported revenue of ¥3.6T in FY2025 versus ¥2.3T in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥535B in FY2025, compounding +12.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $77.3B · P/E ratio 24.8 · P/S ratio 3.64 · EPS (TTM) $0.8800 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 14.7% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −29%, JAPAY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.24Fair Value $15.46Bull $22.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10% vs 3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 22%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.7% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 38 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Above median
Fair Value upside−29% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)33% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)24.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.00× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)3.42× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.1× · Pricier than median
PEG1.22× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)59· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)54· sector 54
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)80· sector 79
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Japan Tobacco (JAPAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.46 versus a price of $21.78, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JAPAY?
Our model-based fair value for Japan Tobacco ADR is $15.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.78.
What is the quality score of JAPAY?
Japan Tobacco ADR has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.24, optimistic scenario $22.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Japan Tobacco ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.46, about −29% upside versus a price of $21.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.24, optimistic scenario $22.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
Japan Tobacco ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.6T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Japan Tobacco ADR pay a dividend?
Japan Tobacco ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Japan Tobacco ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +14.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JAPAY use?
Our models discount Japan Tobacco ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Japan Tobacco ADR that is +14.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Japan Tobacco (JAPAY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Japan Tobacco ADR grew +11.7 % a year. The price currently implies +14.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Japan Tobacco ADR (+14.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.17 %: that much free cash flow Japan Tobacco ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Japan Tobacco ADR it is $15.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $21.78. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Japan Tobacco ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, JAPAY trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.78, fair value $15.46, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JAPAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.46). For Japan Tobacco ADR the two are $6.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Japan Tobacco ADR worth?
The market values Japan Tobacco ADR at about $77.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $21.78; our models calculate a fair value of $15.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JAPAY?
Our models span a range for Japan Tobacco ADR: cautious scenario $10.24, base $15.46, optimistic $22.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $21.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JAPAY?
Japan Tobacco ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 3.0, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 12.1.
What is the PEG ratio of JAPAY?
The PEG ratio of Japan Tobacco ADR is 1.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Japan Tobacco ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JAPAY from its 52-week high?
Japan Tobacco ADR trades at $21.78, about 3% below its 52-week high of $22.50 and 40% above the low of $15.61 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Japan Tobacco ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, ITC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Japan Tobacco ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $21.78, calculated fair value $15.46 (−29%), Quality Score 66/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JAPAY calculated?
We run Japan Tobacco ADR through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Japan Tobacco ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $21.78. Our model-based fair value is $15.46, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Japan Tobacco ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($10.24 to $22.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY) come from?
Earnings per share at Japan Tobacco ADR grew +4.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin −3.3 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Japan Tobacco ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
The market capitalisation of Japan Tobacco ADR is $77.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Japan Tobacco ADR is 3.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
Earnings per share at Japan Tobacco ADR are $0.8800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
The dividend yield of Japan Tobacco ADR is 4.0% (payout 99.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
The net margin of Japan Tobacco ADR is 14.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Japan Tobacco ADR is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Japan Tobacco ADR is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
The operating margin of Japan Tobacco ADR is 32.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
Revenue at Japan Tobacco ADR is growing +11.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Japan Tobacco (JAPAY)?
Earnings per share at Japan Tobacco ADR are growing +25.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Japan Tobacco (JAPAY) carry?
The net debt of Japan Tobacco ADR is ¥848B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026