Philip Morris International Inc (PM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Philip Morris International Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $68.87 – $200.17 · fair‑value band $61.46 – $153.70 · the $187.48 price screens above the $103.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company. The company offers cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral nicotine products under the IQOS, VEEV, and ZYN brands; and consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. It also offers wellness products.
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Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company. The company offers cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral nicotine products under the IQOS, VEEV, and ZYN brands; and consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. It also offers wellness products. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
Philip Morris International Inc (PM) currently trades at $187.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $103.71, implying the stock looks roughly 80.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $121.61 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $187.48 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $33.50, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $61.46 (bear) to $153.70 (bull), the price of $187.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Philip Morris International Inc reported revenue of $40.6B in FY2025 versus $31.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $11.3B in FY2025, compounding +50.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $292B · P/E ratio 25.1 · P/S ratio 7.02 · EPS (TTM) $7.46 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 27.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.6% · Operating margin 36.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at −45%, PM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $61.46Fair Value $103.71Bull $153.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9692 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 37%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Philip Morris International Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 38 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−43% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)36% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)25.1× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)7.13× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF27.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA18.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.52× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)46· sector 9
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)61· sector 79
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Philip Morris International Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PM
Frequently asked questions
Is Philip Morris International Inc (PM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $103.71 versus a price of $187.48, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PM?
Our model-based fair value for Philip Morris International Inc is $103.71 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $187.48.
What is the quality score of PM?
Philip Morris International Inc has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $103.71 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $61.46, optimistic scenario $153.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Philip Morris International Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $103.71, about −45% upside versus a price of $187.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $61.46, optimistic scenario $153.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Philip Morris International Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $41.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Philip Morris International Inc pay a dividend?
Philip Morris International Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Philip Morris International Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +11.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.2 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PM use?
Our models discount Philip Morris International Inc at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Philip Morris International Inc that is +11.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Philip Morris International Inc (PM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Philip Morris International Inc grew +7.2 % a year. The price currently implies +11.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Philip Morris International Inc (PM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Philip Morris International Inc (+11.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.63 %: that much free cash flow Philip Morris International Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Philip Morris International Inc it is $103.71 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $187.48. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Philip Morris International Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, PM trades above its calculated fair value: price $187.48, fair value $103.71, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($187.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($103.71). For Philip Morris International Inc the two are $83.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Philip Morris International Inc worth?
The market values Philip Morris International Inc at about $292B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $187.48; our models calculate a fair value of $103.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PM?
Our models span a range for Philip Morris International Inc: cautious scenario $61.46, base $103.71, optimistic $153.70 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $187.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PM?
Philip Morris International Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.1 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $103.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/S 7.1, EV/EBITDA 18.1.
What is the PEG ratio of PM?
The PEG ratio of Philip Morris International Inc is 2.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How far is PM from its 52-week high?
Philip Morris International Inc trades at $187.48, about 3% below its 52-week high of $193.05 and 34% above the low of $139.58 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $103.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Philip Morris International Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, ITC Limited, KT&G Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Philip Morris International Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $187.48, calculated fair value $103.71 (−45%), Quality Score 78/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PM calculated?
We run Philip Morris International Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $103.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Philip Morris International Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $187.48. Our model-based fair value is $103.71, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Philip Morris International Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($153.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($61.46 to $153.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Philip Morris International Inc (PM) come from?
Earnings per share at Philip Morris International Inc grew +2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin −1.4 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Philip Morris International Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The market capitalisation of Philip Morris International Inc is $292B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Philip Morris International Inc is 7.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Earnings per share at Philip Morris International Inc are $7.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The dividend yield of Philip Morris International Inc is 3.1% (payout 77.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The net margin of Philip Morris International Inc is 27.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Philip Morris International Inc is 17.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The operating margin of Philip Morris International Inc is 36.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Revenue at Philip Morris International Inc is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Earnings per share at Philip Morris International Inc are growing −9.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Philip Morris International Inc (PM) carry?
The net debt of Philip Morris International Inc is $44.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 17, 2026