Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $296B
Philip Morris International Inc
PM · US
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from $106.19 to $103.71 (−2.3%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +0.1% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($148.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($62.46 to $148.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $68.87 – $200.17 · fair‑value band $62.46 – $148.30 · the $188.05 price screens above the $103.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
Philip Morris International Inc (PM) currently trades at $188.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $103.71, implying the stock looks roughly 44.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Philip Morris International Inc generated revenue of $41.5B at a net margin of 26.7%. Revenue grew 9.1% year over year. Net debt stands at $44.0B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 24.6. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $62.46 (bear case) to $148.30 (bull case); at $188.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at -45%, PM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($116.17) versus Growth DCF ($52.83). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company. The company offers cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral nicotine products under the IQOS, VEEV, and ZYN brands; and consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. It also offers wellness products.
Full company description
Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company. The company offers cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral nicotine products under the IQOS, VEEV, and ZYN brands; and consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. It also offers wellness products. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Philip Morris International Inc reported revenue of $40.6B in FY2025 versus $31.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $11.3B in FY2025, compounding +50.2%/yr from FY2021.
PM screens 45% overvalued. Compare with British American Tobacco p.l.c. →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Philip Morris International (PM) Opens Its Largest US Manufacturing Campus For ZYN
- Philip Morris International (PM) Faces Brazil Lawsuit Pressure, Is The Upside Already Priced In?
- What Are Wall Street Analysts' Target Price for Philip Morris International Stock?
Peer Group
Tobacco · 34 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $60.02 | $61.14 | +2% |
| Altria Group MO | $68.44 | $81.81 | +20% |
| ITC Limited ITC | ₹281.75 | ₹282.04 | +0% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 179,900 KRW | 119,073 KRW | -34% |
| PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP | 695.00 IDR | 1,193 IDR | +72% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹2,337 | ₹1,194 | -49% |
| PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM | 16,375 IDR | 16,988 IDR | +4% |
| TABAK TABAK | 18,480 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +26% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$23.00 | HK$24.09 | +5% |
| Universal Corporation UVV | $53.14 | $27.50 | -48% |
Compare Philip Morris International Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Philip Morris International Inc (PM) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of PM?
What is the quality score of PM?
What is the revenue of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
What is the net profit margin of PM?
Does Philip Morris International Inc pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Philip Morris International Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.