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STOCK COMPARISON

Marathon Petroleum vs Valero Energy: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) compare, as of Sep 4, 2026.

As of Sep 4, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Marathon Petroleum as the less overvalued of the two: Marathon Petroleum trades at $388 versus a fair value of $133 (-66%), while Valero Energy trades at $371 versus $127 (-66%).
Marathon Petroleum
MPC · USD · Energy
-66%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$388
Fair Value$133
Quality61/100
Valero Energy
VLO · USD · Energy
-66%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$371
Fair Value$127
Quality66/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Marathon PetroleumValero Energy
Valuation
18.7×P/E (TTM)22.6×
0.61×P/S (TTM)0.78×
4.78×P/B3.88×
10.7×EV/EBITDA10.5×
1.41×PEG4.08×
−65.6%Fair value upside−65.7%
1.0%Dividend yield1.2%
$3.91Dividend per share$4.59
Profitability
4%Operating margin6%
27%Return on equity16%
5%Return on assets6%
Growth
9%Revenue growth (YoY)7%
-9.2%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-11.4%
13.7%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)13.6%
+10.1%Value creation/yr+14.5%
Balance & size
4.1×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)7.8×
1.76×Debt / equity0.41×
$83BMarket cap$92B
weakGrowth qualityweak

Valero Energy leads: 6 to 8 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Marathon Petroleumof which business quality 57 · market factors 93 Valero Energyof which business quality 64 · market factors 93
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
53
43
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
35
36
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
50
61
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
33
63
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
99
100
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
78
75
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
100
100
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
100
100
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
100
100

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyMarathon PetroleumPrice $388Valero EnergyPrice $371
DCF Models-69%below the price$120-35%below the price$240
Earnings-Based-78%below the price$84.34-72%below the price$103
Dividend Discount-86%below the price$55.80n/a
Multiples-65%below the price$136-64%below the price$134
Asset-Based-90%below the price$39.74-86%below the price$53.53
Growth DCF-58%below the price$162-19%below the price$300
Economic Profit-72%below the price$108-69%below the price$113
Growth Earnings-58%below the price$161-68%below the price$119
Minimum-90%below the price$39.74-86%below the price$53.53
Maximum-58%below the price$162-19%below the price$300
Median-71%below the price$114-68%below the price$119
Geometric mean-75%below the price$98.02-64%below the price$133

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Marathon Petroleum: 25 of 25 models see the stock below the current price.

Valero Energy: 24 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Marathon Petroleum
Bear $74.68Fair Value $133Bull $209
$388 = current price (white tick)
Valero Energy
Bear $89.58Fair Value $127Bull $165
$371 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Marathon Petroleum · Energy

Quality score61 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-66% · bottom 25%

Valero Energy · Energy

Quality score66 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-66% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 4, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Marathon Petroleum as the less overvalued of the two: Marathon Petroleum trades at $388 versus a fair value of $133 (-66%), while Valero Energy trades at $371 versus $127 (-66%).

Valero Energy has the higher quality score (66/100).

See the full analysis →
Marathon Petroleum · Valero Energy

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.