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STOCK COMPARISON

Microsoft vs Twilio: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Microsoft (MSFT) and Twilio (TWLO) compare, as of Sep 5, 2026.

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Microsoft as the less overvalued of the two: Microsoft trades at $510 versus a fair value of $381 (-25%), while Twilio trades at $240 versus $11.27 (-95%).
Microsoft
MSFT · USD · Information Technology
-25%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$510
Fair Value$381
Quality66/100
Twilio
TWLO · USD · Information Technology
-95%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$240
Fair Value$11.27
Quality72/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

MicrosoftTwilio
Valuation
22.9×P/E (TTM)321.5×
8.99×P/S (TTM)6.26×
8.33×P/B4.24×
15.6×EV/EBITDA76.1×
1.19×PEG0.40×
−25.3%Fair value upside−95.3%
0.7%Dividend yield—
$3.56Dividend per share—
Profitability
46%Operating margin8%
1.23×EBIT margin trend (5Y)—
34%Return on equity1%
15%Return on assets2%
Growth
18%Revenue growth (YoY)20%
12.4%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)9.8%
14.5%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)23.5%
+19.5%Value creation/yr—
Balance & size
53.9×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)0.5×
0.12×Debt / equity0.13×
$2.9TMarket cap$33B
expensiveGrowth qualityhealthy

Microsoft leads: 8 to 5 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Microsoftof which business quality 65 · market factors 57 Twilioof which business quality 71 · market factors 69
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
75
26
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
53
65
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
71
89
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
79
69
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
1
100
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
57
18
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
57
84
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
57
100
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
84
100

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyMicrosoftPrice $510TwilioPrice $240
DCF Models-35%below the price$333-63%below the price$88.25
Earnings-Based-63%below the price$189-96%below the price$8.50
Dividend Discount-88%below the price$61.93-100%below the price$0.13
Multiples-40%below the price$308-96%below the price$9.58
Asset-Based-94%below the price$30.98-86%below the price$34.53
Growth DCF-51%below the price$249-43%below the price$136
Economic Profit-64%below the price$184-92%below the price$20.21
Growth Earnings-35%below the price$332-95%below the price$11.27
Minimum-94%below the price$30.98-100%below the price$0.13
Maximum-35%below the price$333-43%below the price$136
Median-57%below the price$219-93%below the price$15.74
Geometric mean-68%below the price$166-94%below the price$13.33

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Microsoft: 26 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.

Twilio: 26 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Microsoft
Bear $192Fair Value $381Bull $480
$510 = current price (white tick)
Twilio
Bear $7.89Fair Value $11.27Bull $14.65
$240 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Microsoft · Information Technology

Quality score66 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-25% · above median

Twilio · Information Technology

Quality score72 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-95% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Microsoft as the less overvalued of the two: Microsoft trades at $510 versus a fair value of $381 (-25%), while Twilio trades at $240 versus $11.27 (-95%).

Twilio has the higher quality score (72/100).

See the full analysis →
Microsoft · Twilio

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.