Twilio Inc (TWLO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Twilio Inc stock $24.38, price $242, upside -89.9%, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $42.74 – $392.20 · fair‑value band $15.58 – $33.24 · the $241.90 price screens above the $24.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.
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Twilio Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides customer engagement platform solutions in the United States and internationally.
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The company provides various application programming interfaces and software solutions for communications between customers and end users, including messaging, voice, email, video interactions, digital engagement centers, marketing campaigns, and user authentication and identity solutions.
It also offers software products to build direct and personalized relationships with their end users, such as Segment, a platform that provides tools to harness the power of contextual data by unifying real-time information collected throughout each customer's journey into a unique profile.
Twilio Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Twilio Inc (TWLO) currently trades at $241.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.38, 89.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $97.74 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $241.90 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.71, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $15.58 (bear) to $33.24 (bull), the price of $241.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Twilio Inc reported revenue of $5.1B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was $33.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $38.6B Large · P/E ratio 33.5 · P/S ratio 6.93 · EPS (TTM) $7.23 · Net margin 20.6% · Return on equity 13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.4% · Operating margin 7.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 123% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −90%, TWLO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($3.75 to $227.73). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$15.58Fair Value $24.38Bull$33.24
Price $241.90 · Upside -89.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.00 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +40.7% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−28.0% (2020) → 3.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.7% a year for the price and +8.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Twilio's main strength lies in expanding its communications infrastructure with AI memory and orchestration for customer engagement in Asia-Pacific, yet its main weak point remains persistently low margins and thin evidence of durable advantage.
Main risk: Generative AI platforms such as those from Sierra or Bland could allow customers to bypass Twilio's programmable APIs for voice and messaging, hitting its core communications revenue.
Bull case: Twilio could leverage its carrier relationships and regulatory expertise to become the trusted infrastructure layer that AI agents rely on for compliant communications.
Bear case: If AI agents abstract the API layer and cheaper alternatives capture volume, Twilio's communications business could see reduced demand for its programmable services and sustained margin pressure.
Twilio is steering toward AI-driven customer engagement by expanding into Asia-Pacific, where adoption in service applications is accelerating. This builds on its communications infrastructure with added memory and orchestration capabilities to support more contextual interactions. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the new AI tools generate enough higher-margin revenue to offset pressures from core messaging volumes, or will they remain secondary to the established business?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−89.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.5% · Above median
Return on assets0.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)20.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)7.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.5× · Pricier than median
P/B4.94× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.93× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow37.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA77.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.40× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)54· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 28
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Twilio Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TWLO
Frequently asked questions
Is Twilio Inc (TWLO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.38 versus a price of $241.90, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TWLO?
Our model-based fair value for Twilio Inc is $24.38 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $241.90.
What is the quality score of TWLO?
Twilio Inc has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.38 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.58, optimistic scenario $33.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Twilio Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.38, about −90% upside versus a price of $241.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.58, optimistic scenario $33.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
Twilio Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Twilio Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +21.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.5 % per year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TWLO use?
Our models discount Twilio Inc at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Twilio Inc that is +21.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Twilio Inc (TWLO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Twilio Inc grew +23.5 % a year. The price currently implies +21.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Twilio Inc (TWLO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Twilio Inc (+21.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.67 %: that much free cash flow Twilio Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Twilio Inc it is $24.38 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of $241.90. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Twilio Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, TWLO trades above its calculated fair value: price $241.90, fair value $24.38, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TWLO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($241.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.38). For Twilio Inc the two are $217.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Twilio Inc worth?
The market values Twilio Inc at about $38.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is $241.90; our models calculate a fair value of $24.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TWLO?
Our models span a range for Twilio Inc: cautious scenario $15.58, base $24.38, optimistic $33.24 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price $241.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TWLO?
Twilio Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.5 (as of Oct 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 4.9, P/S 6.9, EV/EBITDA 77.9.
What is the PEG ratio of TWLO?
The PEG ratio of Twilio Inc is 0.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 30, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Twilio Inc (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity 13.5%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TWLO from its 52-week high?
Twilio Inc trades at $241.90, about 20% below its 52-week high of $301.27 and 123% above the low of $108.49 (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Twilio Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Twilio Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price $241.90, calculated fair value $24.38 (−90%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TWLO calculated?
We run Twilio Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $24.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Twilio Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was $241.90. Our model-based fair value is $24.38, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Twilio Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($15.58 to $33.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Twilio Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
The market capitalisation of Twilio Inc is $38.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Twilio Inc is 6.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
Earnings per share at Twilio Inc are $7.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
The net margin of Twilio Inc is 20.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Twilio Inc is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Twilio Inc is −3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
The operating margin of Twilio Inc is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
Revenue at Twilio Inc is growing +22.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Twilio Inc (TWLO)?
Earnings per share at Twilio Inc are growing +46.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Twilio Inc (TWLO) carry?
The net debt of Twilio Inc is $399M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 30, 2026