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Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) vs UPM-Kymmene Oyj: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCA-B) and UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) compare, as of Sep 5, 2026.

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) trades at SEK 116 versus a fair value of SEK 60.46 (-48%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €24.24 versus €19.43 (-20%).
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ)
SCA-B.ST · SEK · Materials
-48%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceSEK 116
Fair ValueSEK 60.46
Quality47/100
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
UPM.HE · EUR · Materials
-20%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price€24.24
Fair Value€19.43
Quality60/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ)UPM-Kymmene Oyj
Valuation
26.0×P/E (TTM)23.0×
3.15×P/S (TTM)1.51×
0.71×P/B1.44×
21.0×EV/EBITDA14.4×
0.45×PEG12.89×
−47.9%Fair value upside−19.8%
2.6%Dividend yield6.2%
SEK 3.00Dividend per share€1.50
Profitability
1%Operating margin10%
1.84×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.51×
3%Return on equity5%
1%Return on assets2%
Growth
-5%Revenue growth (YoY)-5%
-0.6%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-6.3%
2.1%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)2.4%
−9.0%Value creation/yr−8.3%
Balance & size
2.5×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)4.2×
0.12×Debt / equity0.28×
$8BMarket cap$14B
mixedGrowth qualityweak

UPM-Kymmene Oyj leads: 6 to 10 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ)of which business quality 47 · market factors 57 UPM-Kymmene Oyjof which business quality 58 · market factors 56
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
25
26
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
28
38
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
39
66
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
51
55
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
72
96
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
94
91
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
42
38
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
42
48
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
82
88

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familySvenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ)Price SEK 116UPM-Kymmene OyjPrice €24.24
DCF Models-80%below the priceSEK 23.66-42%below the price€14.17
Earnings-Based-81%below the priceSEK 22.57-83%below the price€4.21
Dividend Discountn/a-33%below the price€16.20
Multiples-61%below the priceSEK 45.03-36%below the price€15.45
Asset-Based-17%below the priceSEK 96.85-48%below the price€12.71
Growth DCF-89%below the priceSEK 13.10-32%below the price€16.37
Economic Profit-53%below the priceSEK 54.73-67%below the price€7.88
Growth Earnings-49%below the priceSEK 59.21-51%below the price€11.81
Minimum-89%below the priceSEK 13.10-83%below the price€4.21
Maximum-17%below the priceSEK 96.85-32%below the price€16.37
Median-61%below the priceSEK 45.03-45%below the price€13.44
Geometric mean-68%below the priceSEK 37.21-53%below the price€11.42

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ): 22 of 22 models see the stock below the current price.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj: 24 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ)
Bear SEK 43.85Fair Value SEK 60.46Bull SEK 81.76
SEK 116 = current price (white tick)
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
Bear €14.58Fair Value €19.43Bull €25.27
€24.24 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) · Materials

Quality score47 · below median
Fair value upside-48% · below median

UPM-Kymmene Oyj · Materials

Quality score60 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-20% · above median

Bottom line

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) trades at SEK 116 versus a fair value of SEK 60.46 (-48%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €24.24 versus €19.43 (-20%).

UPM-Kymmene Oyj has the higher quality score (60/100).

See the full analysis →
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) · UPM-Kymmene Oyj

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.