Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCA-B) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · SE · Market cap 72.3B SEK (≈ $7.6B) · ISIN SE0000112724
What is Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 92% above our fair value of kr 60.46.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from kr 45.12 to kr 60.46 (+34.0%) since Aug 21, 2026. Share price +5.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 81.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 43.85 to kr 81.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 97.22 – kr 186.00 · fair‑value band kr 43.85 – kr 81.76 · the kr 116.00 price screens above the kr 60.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCA-B) currently trades at kr 116.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 60.46, implying the stock looks roughly 91.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of kr 96.85 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the kr 116.00 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at kr 6.61, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) generated revenue of 23.0B SEK at a net margin of 12.1%. Revenue declined 5.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.7%. Net debt stands at 13.0B SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 43.85 (bear case) to kr 81.76 (bull case); at kr 116.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at −48%, SCA-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly kr 0.6523 per share, which is 1.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (kr 96.85) versus Growth DCF (kr 6.61). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) operates in the forest business in Sweden, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Forest, Wood, Pulp, Containerboard, and Renewable Energy.
Full company description
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) operates in the forest business in Sweden, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Forest, Wood, Pulp, Containerboard, and Renewable Energy. The company offers various sawn wood products; wood solutions for industrial buildings comprising construction timber, outer panels, dimensionally planed timber, laths, base rafters, planks, and shaped timber products; wood solutions for merchants, including joists, battens, untreated and painted outer panels, as well as pressure-impregnated wood products; logistics services consisting of marine and land transportation services, such as forwarding services using RoRo vessels, container express, and road and rail; and wood pellets. It also provides pulp products comprising bleached softwood kraft pulp and chemical thermomechanical pulp; packaging paper/kraftliner products for consumer durables, electronics, hazardous goods, industrial products, fruit and vegetables, and frozen food; refined and unrefined solid biofuels, and liquid biofuels; and green products, such as tall oil, turpentine, district heating, and green electricity. In addition, the company engages in the management and harvesting of forest land, which includes the provision of hunting and fishing privileges; sourcing and transporting of timber; and wind power operations. It exports its products. Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) was incorporated in 1915 and is headquartered in Sundsvall, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) reported revenue of 20.4B SEK in FY2025 versus 18.8B SEK in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 3.2B SEK in FY2025, compounding −14.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −17.6 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SCA-B screens 92% overvalued. Compare with UPM-Kymmene Oyj →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 118 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €24.31 | €14.21 | −42% |
| Suzano S.A SUZ | $9.15 | $24.16 | +164% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥13.94 | ¥17.29 | +24% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 323.00 | kr 217.72 | −33% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.92 | HK$8.74 | +10% |
| PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP | 8,800 IDR | 17,945 IDR | +104% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,049 CLP | 1,281 CLP | +22% |
| The Navigator Company NVG | €3.24 | €2.65 | −18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.11 | ¥21.06 | +0% |
| Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM | €20.70 | €24.73 | +19% |
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