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STOCK COMPARISON

Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk vs UPM-Kymmene Oyj: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM) and UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) compare, as of Sep 24, 2026.

As of Sep 24, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk trades at IDR 7,450 versus a fair value of IDR 3,116 (-58%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €25.92 versus €21.04 (-19%).
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk
TKIM.JK · IDR · Materials
-58%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceIDR 7,450
Fair ValueIDR 3,116
Quality47/100
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
UPM.HE · EUR · Materials
-19%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price€25.92
Fair Value€21.04
Quality60/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.

betterweakerfor reference, not scored

Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia TbkUPM-Kymmene Oyj
Valuation
4.8×P/E (TTM)25.5×
2.28×P/S (TTM)1.64×
0.76×P/B1.56×
22.3×EV/EBITDA15.5×
n/aPEG12.89×
−58.2%Fair value upside−18.8%
n/aDividend yield5.8%
n/aDividend per share€1.50
Profitability
8%Operating margin10%
0.29×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.51×
9%Return on equity5%
1%Return on assets2%
Growth
3%Revenue growth (YoY)-5%
-5.3%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-6.3%
2.3%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)2.4%
+10.3%Value creation/yr−8.7%
Balance & size
1.5×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)4.2×
0.14×Debt / equity0.28×
$2BMarket cap$16B
weakGrowth qualityweak

UPM-Kymmene Oyj leads: 5 to 8 metric wins.

n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbkof which business quality 47 · market factors 50 UPM-Kymmene Oyjof which business quality 58 · market factors 67
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
42
26
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
31
38
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
18
66
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
62
55
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
64
96
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
54
90
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52
50
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
43
69
Net IssuanceShare count: buybacks or dilution?
82
88

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyPabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia TbkPrice IDR 7,450UPM-Kymmene OyjPrice €25.92
DCF Models-54%below the priceIDR 3,428-43%below the price€14.71
Earnings-Based-10%close to the priceIDR 6,700-84%below the price€4.21
Dividend Discount-96%below the priceIDR 312-38%below the price€16.20
Multiples-22%below the priceIDR 5,843-40%below the price€15.45
Asset-Based+34%above the priceIDR 9,972-51%below the price€12.71
Growth DCF-61%below the priceIDR 2,882-33%below the price€17.31
Economic Profit+9%close to the priceIDR 8,102-70%below the price€7.88
Growth Earnings+138%above the priceIDR 17,762-54%below the price€11.81
Minimum-96%below the priceIDR 312-84%below the price€4.21
Maximum+138%above the priceIDR 17,762-33%below the price€17.31
Median-16%below the priceIDR 6,271-47%below the price€13.71
Geometric mean-39%below the priceIDR 4,516-55%below the price€11.55

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk: 15 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj: 24 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk
Price IDR 7,450
Fair Value IDR 3,116
Bear IDR 1,826Bull IDR 5,094
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
Price €25.92
Fair Value €21.04
Bear €15.60Bull €25.27

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk · Materials

Quality score47 · below median
Fair value upside-58% · bottom 25%

UPM-Kymmene Oyj · Materials

Quality score60 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-19% · above median

Bottom line

As of Sep 24, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk trades at IDR 7,450 versus a fair value of IDR 3,116 (-58%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €25.92 versus €21.04 (-19%).

UPM-Kymmene Oyj has the higher quality score (60/100).

Open UPM-Kymmene Oyj live analysis →
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk · UPM-Kymmene Oyj

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.