PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 16.8T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from 8,437 IDR to 6,376 IDR (−24.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +35.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from 4,748 IDR (bear) to 8,004 IDR (bull), base 6,376 IDR. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 47/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4,405 IDR – 15,319 IDR · fair‑value band 4,748 IDR – 8,004 IDR · the 7,225 IDR price screens above the 6,376 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM) currently trades at 7,225 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6,376 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 11.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk generated revenue of 991M IDR at a net margin of 26.1%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.9%. Net debt stands at 591M IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 4,748 IDR (bear case) to 8,004 IDR (bull case); at 7,225 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -12%, TKIM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (20,577 IDR) versus Growth DCF (180.50 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk manufactures and sells writing and printing paper products in Asia, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the United States, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Cultural Paper Products, and Industrial Paper Products and Other.
Full company description
PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk manufactures and sells writing and printing paper products in Asia, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the United States, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Cultural Paper Products, and Industrial Paper Products and Other. It offers white grade paper products, including uncoated woodfree, uncoated photocopy, coated carbonless, specialty grease proof, specialty kraft paper, specialty drawing p., and specialty briefcard products; brown grade paper comprising medium fluting, test liner, and core board products; and stationery products, such as writing products, writing product spirals, writing product pads, writing product loose leaves, writing product hard cover books, office product envelopes, office product register rolls, office product plotters, and office product computer papers. The company also provides chemicals, including sodium hypochlorite, hydrochloric acid, chlorine liquid, calcium chloride, caustic soda liquid, caustic soda flake, and caustic soda flake. In addition, it offers carton boxes, such as single wall, double wall, layer and partition, and boxes, as well as single face packaging products, food wraps, maps and name cards, and folding boxes. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT APP Purinusa Ekapersada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk reported revenue of 973M IDR in FY2025 versus 1.0B IDR in FY2021, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was 272M IDR in FY2025, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2021.
TKIM screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Klabin S.A →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.58 | R$3.89 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.45 | €15.47 | -34% |
| Suzano S.A SUZB3 | R$41.70 | R$138.01 | +231% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 103.00 | kr 49.40 | -52% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥14.13 | ¥17.29 | +22% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 305.40 | kr 217.72 | -29% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.55 | HK$8.73 | +16% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,078 CLP | 1,269 CLP | +18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥22.05 | ¥24.32 | +10% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 68.70 | kr 48.60 | -29% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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