Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk IDR 3,116, price IDR 7,450, upside -58.2%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4,405 IDR – 11,137 IDR · fair‑value band 1,826 IDR – 5,094 IDR · the 7,450 IDR price screens above the 3,116 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk manufactures and sells writing and printing paper products in Asia, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the United States, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Cultural Paper Products, and Industrial Paper Products and Other.
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PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk manufactures and sells writing and printing paper products in Asia, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the United States, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Cultural Paper Products, and Industrial Paper Products and Other. It offers white grade paper products, including uncoated woodfree, uncoated photocopy, coated carbonless, specialty grease proof, specialty kraft paper, specialty drawing p., and specialty briefcard products; brown grade paper comprising medium fluting, test liner, and core board products; and stationery products, such as writing products, writing product spirals, writing product pads, writing product loose leaves, writing product hard cover books, office product envelopes, office product register rolls, office product plotters, and office product computer papers. The company also provides chemicals, including sodium hypochlorite, hydrochloric acid, chlorine liquid, calcium chloride, caustic soda liquid, caustic soda flake, and caustic soda flake. In addition, it offers carton boxes, such as single wall, double wall, layer and partition, and boxes, as well as single face packaging products, food wraps, maps and name cards, and folding boxes. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT APP Purinusa Ekapersada.
Stock analysis
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM) currently trades at 7,450 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,116 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 139.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 17,762 IDR per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the 7,450 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 2,026 IDR, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1,826 IDR (bear) to 5,094 IDR (bull), the price of 7,450 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk reported revenue of $973M in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was $272M in FY2025, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 23.2T IDR (≈ $2.3B) · P/E ratio 4.9 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) 1,510 IDR · Net margin 28.0% · Return on equity 8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9% · Operating margin 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at −58%, TKIM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,826 IDRFair Value 3,116 IDRBull 5,094 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1,104 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10% vs 41%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 119 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside−57% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)4.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.76× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.28× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF108.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA22.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)13· sector 7
PAST (return on equity)36· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TKIM
Frequently asked questions
Is Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3,116 IDR versus a price of 7,450 IDR, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TKIM?
Our model-based fair value for Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk is 3,116 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 7,450 IDR.
What is the quality score of TKIM?
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3,116 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,826 IDR, optimistic scenario 5,094 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3,116 IDR, about −58% upside versus a price of 7,450 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1,826 IDR, optimistic scenario 5,094 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $991M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk it is 3,116 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 7,450 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TKIM trades above its calculated fair value: price 7,450 IDR, fair value 3,116 IDR, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKIM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (7,450 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3,116 IDR). For Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk the two are 4,334 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk worth?
The market values Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk at about 23.2T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 7,450 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 3,116 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKIM?
Our models span a range for Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk: cautious scenario 1,826 IDR, base 3,116 IDR, optimistic 5,094 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 7,450 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKIM?
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3,116 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 22.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.9%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKIM from its 52-week high?
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk trades at 7,450 IDR, about 33% below its 52-week high of 11,137 IDR and 65% above the low of 4,525 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3,116 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 7,450 IDR, calculated fair value 3,116 IDR (−58%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKIM calculated?
We run Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3,116 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 7,450 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 3,116 IDR, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5,094 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (1,826 IDR to 5,094 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
The market capitalisation of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk is 23.2T IDR (≈ $2.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk is 1.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
Earnings per share at Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk are 1,510 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
The net margin of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk is 28.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
The operating margin of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
Revenue at Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk is growing +2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)?
Earnings per share at Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk are growing −17.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM) generate?
The free cash flow of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk is $20.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM) carry?
The net debt of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk is $591M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 28.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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