Shenzhen GuoHua Network Security Technology Co (000004) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · CN · Market cap 365M CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from ¥1.74 to ¥0.1800 (−89.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −83.3% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.2200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥0.2600 – ¥25.97 · fair‑value band ¥0.1300 – ¥0.2200 · the ¥0.4600 price screens above the ¥0.1800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Shenzhen GuoHua Network Security Technology Co (000004) currently trades at ¥0.4600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.1800, implying the stock looks roughly 60.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shenzhen GuoHua Network Security Technology Co generated revenue of 175M CNY at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue declined 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 62.7M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.1300 (bear case) to ¥0.2200 (bull case); at ¥0.4600, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -61%, 000004 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥0.5100) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.0700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shenzhen GuoHua Network Security Technology Co., Ltd. engages in mobile Internet services, emergency security, and smart cities businesses.
Full company description
Shenzhen GuoHua Network Security Technology Co., Ltd. engages in mobile Internet services, emergency security, and smart cities businesses. The company focuses on mobile application security, big data security, Internet of Things security, mobile security consulting, mobile security training, mobile security detection, mobile security reinforcement, mobile security awareness, mobile security management, and other product systems. It is also involved in the mobile game distribution and operation services business. Shenzhen GuoHua Network Security Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 1981 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shenzhen GuoHua Network Security Technology Co reported revenue of ¥177M in FY2025 versus ¥289M in FY2021, a compound −11.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.5M in FY2025.
000004 screens 61% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 601 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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