Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.7B CNY (≈ $546M)
What is Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. really worth?
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 740% above our fair value of ¥5.77.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +26.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
50‑month range ¥19.64 – ¥54.46 · fair‑value band ¥4.21 – ¥7.21 · the ¥48.45 price screens above the ¥5.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226) currently trades at ¥48.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.77, implying the stock looks roughly 739.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥6.57 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥48.45 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.71, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. generated revenue of 707M CNY at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 17.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.8%. Net debt stands at 68.0M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.21 (bear case) to ¥7.21 (bull case); at ¥48.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −88%, 001226 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.2005 per share, which is 3.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥6.57) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.71). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, design, production, sale, and service of engineering machinery parts in China and internationally.
Full company description
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, design, production, sale, and service of engineering machinery parts in China and internationally. It offers idler, track roller, sprocket, carrier roller, track shoes, steering clutch assembly, spring sets, braking device, forging tooth, forged adapter, pins, transmission parts, excavator, bulldozer, and loader steering clutches, brakes, axles, and forged steel bushings, as well as link, assembly, segment, and forging products. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Xuancheng, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 676M CNY in FY2025 versus 887M CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was 20.5M CNY in FY2025, compounding −30.2%/yr from FY2021.
001226 screens 740% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 152 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $800.25 | $307.83 | −62% |
| Deere & Company DE | $622.66 | $182.29 | −71% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 351.40 | kr 288.08 | −18% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $129.23 | $94.80 | −27% |
| Daimler Truck Holding DTG | €45.53 | €47.70 | +5% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 272.80 | kr 144.14 | −47% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €72.10 | €123.44 | +71% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥19.06 | ¥20.84 | +9% |
| Traton SE 8TRA | €37.78 | €52.60 | +39% |
| Metso Oyj METSO | €16.75 | €10.73 | −36% |
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