Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. stock ¥5.17, price ¥44.75, that is 88.4% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
53‑month range ¥19.64 – ¥54.46 · fair‑value band ¥3.54 – ¥7.21 · the ¥44.75 price screens above the ¥5.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, design, production, sale, and service of engineering machinery parts in China and internationally.
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It offers idler, track roller, sprocket, carrier roller, track shoes, steering clutch assembly, spring sets, braking device, forging tooth, forged adapter, pins, transmission parts, excavator, bulldozer, and loader steering clutches, brakes, axles, and forged steel bushings, as well as link, assembly, segment, and forging products.
The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Xuancheng, China.
Stock analysis
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226) currently trades at ¥44.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.17, 88% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥6.45 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥44.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.56, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥3.54 (bear) to ¥7.21 (bull), the price of ¥44.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 676M CNY in FY2025 versus 887M CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was 20.5M CNY in FY2025, compounding −30.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.3B CNY (≈ $501M) Small · P/E ratio 131.6 · P/S ratio 4.14 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.3400 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −88%, 001226 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥2.66 to ¥41.55). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥3.54Fair Value ¥5.17Bull¥7.21
Price ¥44.75 · Downside -88.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2944 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−22.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+70.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +67.3% a year for the price.
Compare Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 150 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−88.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.3% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)68.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/001226
Frequently asked questions
Is Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.17 versus a price of ¥44.75, about 88% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 001226?
Our model-based fair value for Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. is ¥5.17 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥44.75.
What is the quality score of 001226?
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.17 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.54, optimistic scenario ¥7.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.17, about 88% lower versus a price of ¥44.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.54, optimistic scenario ¥7.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 807M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.27% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. has a dividend yield of 1.3%.
What growth is priced into Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +70.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.1 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 001226 use?
Our models discount Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. that is +70.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. grew -2.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +70.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (+70.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.30 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. it is ¥5.17 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of ¥44.75. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, 001226 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥44.75, fair value ¥5.17, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 001226?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥44.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.17). For Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. the two are ¥39.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. at about 3.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is ¥44.75; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 001226?
Our models span a range for Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥3.54, base ¥5.17, optimistic ¥7.21 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price ¥44.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 001226?
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 131.6 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥5.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.6, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 55.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
Balance-sheet figures for Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 001226 from its 52-week high?
Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. trades at ¥44.75, about 18% below its 52-week high of ¥54.46 and 35% above the low of ¥33.26 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price ¥44.75, calculated fair value ¥5.17 (−88%), Quality Score 55/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 001226 calculated?
We run Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥5.17 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was ¥44.75. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.17, about 88% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥3.54 to ¥7.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
The market capitalisation of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. is 3.3B CNY (≈ $501M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. is 4.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. are ¥0.3400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 131.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
The dividend yield of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. is 1.3% (payout 167%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
The net margin of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. is 3.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
The operating margin of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
Revenue at Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. is growing +68.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. are growing +67.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. (001226) carry?
The net debt of Anhui Tuoshan Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. is 68.0M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 12, 2026