PACCAR Inc (PCAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PACCAR Inc stock $113, price $105, upside +8.1%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.72 – $137.85 · fair‑value band $75.78 – $141.27 · the $104.50 price screens below the $113.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Europe, Central and South America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services.
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The Truck segment designs, manufactures, and distributes trucks for the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of commercial and consumer goods; and diesel engine products. It sells its trucks through a network of independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates.
The Parts segment distributes aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment conducts full-service leasing operations under the PacLease trade name, as well as provides finance and leasing products and services to customers and dealers.
This segment offers equipment financing and administrative support services for its franchisees; retail loan and leasing services for small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators and other businesses; and truck inventory financing services to independent dealers.
In addition, this segment offers loans and leases directly to customers for the acquisition of trucks and related equipment; and operates its own full-service lease outlets. The company manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates.
PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
Stock analysis
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) currently trades at $104.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $113.01, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $101.64 per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the $104.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $24.06, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $75.78 (bear) to $141.27 (bull), the price of $104.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
PACCAR Inc reported revenue of $28.4B in FY2025 versus $23.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding +6.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $55.1B Large · P/E ratio 20.0 · P/S ratio 1.90 · EPS (TTM) $5.22 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 9.5% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 8%, PCAR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$75.78Fair Value $113.01Bull$141.27
Price $104.50 · Upside +8.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.28 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $7.6M and none bought.
SaleR Preston FeightCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, Director3× since Jan 30, 2026: 88,007 shares, avg. $130.01$11.4MJul 31, 2026
SaleWilliam Lance WaltersVice President1,000 shares at $133.50$133,500Jul 31, 2026
SaleBrice J PoplawskiSr. Vice President & CFO3× since Feb 2, 2026: 6,370 shares, avg. $128.84$820,705Jul 31, 2026
SalePaulo Henrique BolgarVice President2× since Jan 30, 2026: 15,080 shares, avg. $124.63$1.9MJul 31, 2026
SaleCraig R GryniewiczVice President8,748 shares at $129.00$1.1MFeb 11, 2026
SaleKevin D BaneyExecutive Vice President9,672 shares at $126.53$1.2MFeb 3, 2026
SaleLaura J BlochSenior Vice President2× since Feb 2, 2026: 15,420 shares, avg. $124.82$1.9MFeb 3, 2026
SaleC Michael DozierEXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT79,076 shares at $127.92$10.1MFeb 3, 2026
Plus 24 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.8% vs 5.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.0% a year for the price and +3.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business gains stability from its substantial aftermarket parts operation that offsets weaker new-truck demand, yet stays limited by thin evidence of durable competitive advantages.
Main risk: Chinese manufacturers such as BYD, Sinotruk and Farizon could offer heavy-duty trucks at lower prices in Europe and other markets, pressuring PACCAR's margins and share in the premium segment.
Bull case: PACCAR could leverage its strong aftermarket parts business and local North American manufacturing to offset higher compliance costs while partnering selectively on autonomy and electric powertrains to maintain premium positioning against lower-cost rivals.
Bear case: If emissions compliance costs rise sharply and Chinese rivals expand with cheaper electric trucks, PACCAR could lose significant market share in new vehicles while its parts buffer proves insufficient to offset sustained margin pressure across the cycle.
Paccar combines truck manufacturing with a substantial aftermarket parts operation that delivers steadier revenue even when new truck demand weakens. Our models see the shares as undervalued against this mix of cyclical exposure and recurring income. Does the business gain more from the parts buffer than it loses when fleet orders slow?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 143 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+8.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.7% · Above median
Return on assets5.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PACCAR Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PCAR
Frequently asked questions
Is PACCAR Inc (PCAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $113.01 versus a price of $104.50, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PCAR?
Our model-based fair value for PACCAR Inc is $113.01 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $104.50.
What is the quality score of PCAR?
PACCAR Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $113.01 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $75.78, optimistic scenario $141.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PACCAR Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $113.01, about +8% upside versus a price of $104.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $75.78, optimistic scenario $141.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
PACCAR Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $29.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does PACCAR Inc pay a dividend?
PACCAR Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.30% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PACCAR Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PCAR use?
Our models discount PACCAR Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PACCAR Inc that is +8.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PACCAR Inc (PCAR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PACCAR Inc grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +8.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PACCAR Inc (PCAR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PACCAR Inc (+8.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.49 %: that much free cash flow PACCAR Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PACCAR Inc it is $113.01 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $104.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PACCAR Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, PCAR trades below its calculated fair value: price $104.50, fair value $113.01, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PCAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($104.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($113.01). For PACCAR Inc the two are $8.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PACCAR Inc worth?
The market values PACCAR Inc at about $55.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $104.50; our models calculate a fair value of $113.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PCAR?
Our models span a range for PACCAR Inc: cautious scenario $75.78, base $113.01, optimistic $141.27 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $104.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PCAR?
PACCAR Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.0 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $113.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.9, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 15.8.
What is the PEG ratio of PCAR?
The PEG ratio of PACCAR Inc is 0.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for PACCAR Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 13.7%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PCAR from its 52-week high?
PACCAR Inc trades at $104.50, about 24% below its 52-week high of $137.85 and 13% above the low of $92.20 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $113.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PACCAR Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, Daimler Truck Holding, Sany Heavy Industry Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PACCAR Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $104.50, calculated fair value $113.01 (+8%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PCAR calculated?
We run PACCAR Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $113.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. PACCAR Inc currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $104.50. Our model-based fair value is $113.01, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PACCAR Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($75.78 to $141.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of PACCAR Inc (PCAR) come from?
Earnings per share at PACCAR Inc grew +13.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PACCAR Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
The market capitalisation of PACCAR Inc is $55.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PACCAR Inc is 1.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
Earnings per share at PACCAR Inc are $5.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
The dividend yield of PACCAR Inc is 1.3% (payout 26.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
The net margin of PACCAR Inc is 9.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PACCAR Inc is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PACCAR Inc is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
The operating margin of PACCAR Inc is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
Revenue at PACCAR Inc is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
Earnings per share at PACCAR Inc are growing +43.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does PACCAR Inc (PCAR) hold?
PACCAR Inc holds more cash than debt, $9.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026