PACCAR Inc (PCAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what PACCAR Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Industrials · US · Market cap $66.4B · ISIN US6937181088
At a glance
PIPACCAR IncPCAR · US
Price$122.50
Fair Value$94.80
Upside−22.6%
Quality52/100
A solid business, but trading 29% above our fair value of $94.80.
As of Sep 3, 2026, the fair value of PACCAR Inc is $94.80 per share against a price of $122.50, so the fair value sits 23% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.9% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·1.08% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/15)
!Moderate moat 49/100
!Weak on valuation: 3 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 22 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange $61.27 to $118.50
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −8.0% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($118.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range ($61.27 to $118.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.83 – $138.21 · fair‑value band $61.27 – $118.50 · the $122.50 price screens above the $94.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) currently trades at $122.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $94.80, implying the stock looks roughly 29.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $99.12 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $122.50 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $24.52, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, PACCAR Inc generated revenue of $27.8B at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue declined 8.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $9.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Scenario range: $61.27 (bear) to $118.50 (bull), the price of $122.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −23%, PCAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.33 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio26.2
P/S ratio2.19P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$4.68price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.2
Dividend yield1.1%payout 28.2%
Net margin8.4%FY2025
Return on equity13.1%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)10.0%avg 5y
Operating margin10.4%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$27.8BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−8.9%3y avg −0.4%
EPS growth (YoY)+19.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$3.0BFY2025
Net cash$9.3BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality52/100
Of which business quality 54
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Profitability39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth9
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance80
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Europe, Central and South America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services.
Full company description
PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Europe, Central and South America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment designs, manufactures, and distributes trucks for the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of commercial and consumer goods; and diesel engine products. It sells its trucks through a network of independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The Parts segment distributes aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment conducts full-service leasing operations under the PacLease trade name, as well as provides finance and leasing products and services to customers and dealers. This segment offers equipment financing and administrative support services for its franchisees; retail loan and leasing services for small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators and other businesses; and truck inventory financing services to independent dealers. In addition, this segment offers loans and leases directly to customers for the acquisition of trucks and related equipment; and operates its own full-service lease outlets. The company manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates. PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PACCAR Inc reported revenue of $28.4B in FY2025 versus $23.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding +6.2%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$28.4B
Latest YoY
−15.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+5.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+4.8%
Dividend yield1.1%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 4.8% vs 10Y 5.9%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8.9% (2020) → 10.4% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop91% (2009) · in USD
Revenue+4.9%/yr
FY21$23.5B
FY22$28.8B
FY23$35.1B
FY24$33.7B
FY25$28.4B
Net income+6.2%/yr
FY21$1.9B
FY22$3.0B
FY23$4.6B
FY24$4.2B
FY25$2.4B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+13.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share+6.6 %
of which total revenue +6.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %
EBIT margin+2.1 %
Tax rate+3.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+1.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−24% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.2× · Pricier than median
P/B3.45× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.39× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF21.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA21.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.28× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must PACCAR Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE3· sector 11
FUTURE0· sector 27
PAST52· sector 31
HEALTH71· sector 93
DIVIDEND22· sector 38
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $94.80 versus a price of $122.50, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PCAR?
Our model-based fair value for PACCAR Inc is $94.80 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $122.50.
What is the quality score of PCAR?
PACCAR Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $94.80 (as of Sep 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $61.27, optimistic scenario $118.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PACCAR Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $94.80, about −23% upside versus a price of $122.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $61.27, optimistic scenario $118.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
PACCAR Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $27.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PCAR?
The net profit margin of PACCAR Inc is about 8.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does PACCAR Inc pay a dividend?
PACCAR Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PACCAR Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.7 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.2 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PCAR use?
Our models discount PACCAR Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PACCAR Inc it is $94.80 per share (as of Sep 3, 2026), against a price of $122.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PACCAR Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 3, 2026, PCAR trades above its calculated fair value: price $122.50, fair value $94.80, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PCAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($122.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($94.80). For PACCAR Inc the two are $27.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PACCAR Inc worth?
The market values PACCAR Inc at about $66.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 3, 2026). Per share that is $122.50; our models calculate a fair value of $94.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PCAR?
Our models span a range for PACCAR Inc: cautious scenario $61.27, base $94.80, optimistic $118.50 per share (as of Sep 3, 2026, price $122.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PCAR?
PACCAR Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.2 (as of Sep 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $94.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 3.5, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 21.2.
What is the PEG ratio of PCAR?
The PEG ratio of PACCAR Inc is 1.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for PACCAR Inc (as of Sep 3, 2026): return on equity 13.1%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PCAR from its 52-week high?
PACCAR Inc trades at $122.50, about 7% below its 52-week high of $131.13 and 39% above the low of $87.83 (as of Sep 3, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $94.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PACCAR Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, AB Volvo (publ),, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PACCAR Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 3, 2026: price $122.50, calculated fair value $94.80 (−23%), Quality Score 52/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PCAR calculated?
We run PACCAR Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $94.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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PACCAR Inc
PCAR · US