Caterpillar Inc (CAT) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $432B
Caterpillar Inc
CAT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −8.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($402.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($196.11 to $402.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $152.64 – $1,065 · fair‑value band $196.11 – $402.89 · the $856.96 price screens above the $307.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Caterpillar Inc (CAT) currently trades at $856.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $307.83, implying the stock looks roughly 64.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Caterpillar Inc generated revenue of $70.8B at a net margin of 13.3%. Revenue grew 22.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 51.3%. Net debt stands at $33.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $196.11 (bear case) to $402.89 (bull case); at $856.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 145% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 30% fair-value upside, at -64%, CAT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($359.08) versus Asset-Based ($31.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally. The Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, cold planers, compactors, forestry machines, material handlers, motor graders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, telehandlers, track-type tractors, and track and wheel excavators; backhoe, compact track, skid steer, track-type, and wheel loaders; and related parts and work tools. Its Resource Industries segment provides electric rope and hydraulic shovels, draglines, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, mining trucks, wheel loaders, off-highway and articulated trucks, wide-body trucks, wheel tractor scrapers and dozers, and landfill and soil compactors; machinery components, and wear and maintenance components; and technology products and services for fleet management, equipment management analytics, autonomous machine capabilities, safety services, and mining performance solutions. The Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engine powered generator sets; reciprocating engines, drivetrain, and integrated systems and solutions; centrifugal gas compressors and related services; and diesel-electric locomotive components, and other rail-related products. Its Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, revolving charge accounts, installment sale contracts, repair/rebuild financing, working capital loans, and wholesale financing; and insurance and risk management products and services. The All Other segment offers parts distribution; logistics and distribution services; electronics and control systems; dealer portfolio management; brand management and marketing strategy; and digital investment services. It also provides mining software solutions. The company was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. Caterpillar Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Caterpillar Inc reported revenue of $67.6B in FY2025 versus $51.0B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was $8.9B in FY2025, compounding +8.1%/yr from FY2021.
CAT screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Deere & Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Caterpillar Stock Surges 12% as AI Demand Powers Huge Beat
- CAT Q2 Earnings Call Focuses on Backlog and Capacity Growth
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 146 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| Traton SE 8TRA | €35.80 | €52.60 | +47% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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