Caterpillar Inc (CAT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Caterpillar Inc stock $284, price $591, that is 52.0% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $152.35 – $1,063 · fair‑value band $164.22 – $403.70 · the $591.30 price screens above the $283.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally.
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The Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, cold planers, compactors, forestry machines, material handlers, motor graders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, telehandlers, track-type tractors, and track and wheel excavators; backhoe, compact track, skid steer, track-type, and wheel loaders; and related parts and work tools.
Its Resource Industries segment provides electric rope and hydraulic shovels, draglines, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, mining trucks, wheel loaders, off-highway and articulated trucks, wide-body trucks, wheel tractor scrapers and dozers, and landfill and soil compactors; machinery components, and wear and maintenance components; and technology products and services for fleet management, equipment management analytics, autonomous machine capabilities, safety services, and mining performance solutions.
The Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engine powered generator sets; reciprocating engines, drivetrain, and integrated systems and solutions; centrifugal gas compressors and related services; and diesel-electric locomotive components, and other rail-related products.
Its Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, revolving charge accounts, installment sale contracts, repair/rebuild financing, working capital loans, and wholesale financing; and insurance and risk management products and services.
The All Other segment offers parts distribution; logistics and distribution services; electronics and control systems; dealer portfolio management; brand management and marketing strategy; and digital investment services. It also provides mining software solutions.
The company was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. Caterpillar Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Stock analysis
Caterpillar Inc (CAT) currently trades at $591.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $283.68, 52% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $361.37 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $591.30 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $81.18, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $164.22 (bear) to $403.70 (bull), the price of $591.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Caterpillar Inc reported revenue of $67.6B in FY2025 versus $51.0B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was $8.9B in FY2025, compounding +8.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $273B Mega · P/E ratio 23.2 · P/S ratio 3.52 · EPS (TTM) $25.48 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 15.2% · Return on equity 56.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 78 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −52%, CAT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$164.22Fair Value $283.68Bull$403.70
Price $591.30 · Downside -52.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($20.29 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $620,390, on Nov 2, 2026. Over the same period, 4 people sold shares worth $58.5M.
BuyJames C Fish JrDirector1,000 shares at $620.39$620,390Nov 2, 2026
SaleJoseph E CreedChief Executive Officer2× since Mar 5, 2026: 34,901 shares, avg. $802.53$28.0MAug 28, 2026
SaleDenise C JohnsonGroup President3× since Feb 2, 2026: 57,939 shares, avg. $754.88$43.7MMay 14, 2026
SaleWilliam E SchauppChief Accounting Officer2× since Feb 17, 2026: 1,332 shares, avg. $802.52$1.1MMay 13, 2026
SaleAnthony D. FassinoGroup President6× since Nov 10, 2025: 58,214 shares, avg. $787.10$45.8MMay 11, 2026
SaleAndrew R J BonfieldCFO Emeritus3× since Dec 1, 2025: 35,674 shares, avg. $725.03$25.9MMay 6, 2026
SaleBob De LangeGroup President5× since Feb 2, 2026: 91,432 shares, avg. $771.12$70.5MMay 6, 2026
SaleRodney Michael ShurmanGroup President3× since Feb 17, 2026: 9,681 shares, avg. $843.92$8.2MMay 5, 2026
BuyDavid MacLennanDirector2× since Nov 6, 2025: 550 shares, avg. $708.85$389,868May 4, 2026
SaleJason KaiserGroup President3× since Nov 11, 2025: 18,039 shares, avg. $683.47$12.3MMay 4, 2026
Plus 15 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.0% vs 16.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.1% a year for the price and +8.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Caterpillar maintains a moderate moat through its dealer network and brand while average human capital and cyclical end markets restrict durability of its competitive edge.
Main risk: Chinese manufacturers such as XCMG, Sany and Zoomlion could capture market share in construction and mining equipment with competitively priced machines that match or approach Caterpillar's performance in key segments.
Bull case: Caterpillar could defend its position by expanding its dealer network, aftermarket services and AI-enabled autonomy features that Chinese rivals have not yet matched at scale.
Bear case: If Chinese OEMs continue gaining share on price and tariffs persist, Caterpillar could face sustained margin compression and slower volume growth in core construction and mining segments.
Caterpillar shows a record order backlog fueled by demand for power equipment in data centers alongside its core machinery markets. Capacity limits and ongoing tariff and material costs, however, may cap how quickly that demand turns into sustained growth. Will scaling production deliver more upside than the pressures on margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 143 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−52.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)56.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)20.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.2× · Pricier than median
P/B12.83× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.52× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow36.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.08× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)87· sector 44
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)28· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)5· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Caterpillar Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CAT
Frequently asked questions
Is Caterpillar Inc (CAT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $283.68 versus a price of $591.30, about 52% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CAT?
Our model-based fair value for Caterpillar Inc is $283.68 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $591.30.
What is the quality score of CAT?
Caterpillar Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $283.68 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $164.22, optimistic scenario $403.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Caterpillar Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $283.68, about 52% lower versus a price of $591.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $164.22, optimistic scenario $403.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
Caterpillar Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $77.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Caterpillar Inc pay a dividend?
Caterpillar Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.26% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Caterpillar Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +24.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.1 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CAT use?
Our models discount Caterpillar Inc at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Caterpillar Inc that is +24.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Caterpillar Inc (CAT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Caterpillar Inc grew +10.1 % a year. The price currently implies +24.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Caterpillar Inc (CAT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Caterpillar Inc (+24.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.73 %: that much free cash flow Caterpillar Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Caterpillar Inc it is $283.68 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $591.30. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Caterpillar Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, CAT trades above its calculated fair value: price $591.30, fair value $283.68, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CAT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($591.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($283.68). For Caterpillar Inc the two are $307.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Caterpillar Inc worth?
The market values Caterpillar Inc at about $273B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $591.30; our models calculate a fair value of $283.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CAT?
Our models span a range for Caterpillar Inc: cautious scenario $164.22, base $283.68, optimistic $403.70 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $591.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CAT?
Caterpillar Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $283.68 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 17.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 12.8, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 17.1.
What is the PEG ratio of CAT?
The PEG ratio of Caterpillar Inc is 1.08 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Caterpillar Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 56.1%, debt of 1.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CAT from its 52-week high?
Caterpillar Inc trades at $591.30, about 44% below its 52-week high of $1,063 and 9% above the low of $542.81 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $283.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Caterpillar Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, Sany Heavy Industry Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Caterpillar Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $591.30, calculated fair value $283.68 (−52%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CAT calculated?
We run Caterpillar Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $283.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Caterpillar Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $591.30. Our model-based fair value is $283.68, about 52% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Caterpillar Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($403.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($164.22 to $403.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Caterpillar Inc (CAT) come from?
Earnings per share at Caterpillar Inc grew +18.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin +11.0 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Caterpillar Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
The market capitalisation of Caterpillar Inc is $273B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Caterpillar Inc is 3.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
Earnings per share at Caterpillar Inc are $25.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
The dividend yield of Caterpillar Inc is 0.3% (payout 5.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
The net margin of Caterpillar Inc is 15.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Caterpillar Inc is 56.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Caterpillar Inc is 11.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
The operating margin of Caterpillar Inc is 20.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
Revenue at Caterpillar Inc is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Caterpillar Inc (CAT)?
Earnings per share at Caterpillar Inc are growing +46.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Caterpillar Inc (CAT) carry?
The net debt of Caterpillar Inc is $33.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026