AB Volvo (publ), (VLVLY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $70.0B
AB Volvo (publ),
VLVLY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 31 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from $41.24 to $32.78 (−20.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 14% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($16.68 to $42.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.82 – $39.16 · fair‑value band $16.68 – $42.69 · the $37.96 price screens above the $32.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
AB Volvo (publ), (VLVLY) currently trades at $37.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.78, implying the stock looks roughly 13.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, AB Volvo (publ), generated revenue of $494B at a net margin of 7.0%. Revenue declined 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.0%. Net debt stands at $175B. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.68 (bear case) to $42.69 (bull case); at $37.96, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -14%, VLVLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($32.78) versus Asset-Based ($6.38). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AB Volvo (publ), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells trucks, buses, construction equipment, and marine and industrial engines in Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Africa, and Oceania.
Full company description
AB Volvo (publ), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells trucks, buses, construction equipment, and marine and industrial engines in Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. The company operates through Industrial Operations - Trucks, Industrial Operations - Construction Equipment, Industrial Operations - Buses, Industrial Operations - Volvo Penta, Industrial Operations - Group Functions & Other, and Financial Services segments. The company offers heavy-duty trucks for long-haulage and construction work, and light-duty trucks for distribution purposes under the Volvo, Renault Trucks, Mack, Eicher, and Dongfeng Trucks brands; and city and intercity buses, coaches, and chassis under the Prevost and Volvo Bus brands. It also provides haulers, wheel loaders, excavators, road construction machines, and compact equipment under the Volvo, SDLG, and Rokbak brands. In addition, the company offers engines and power solutions for industrial off-highway applications and power generation, as well as for leisure boats, yachts, and commercial vessels under the Volvo Penta brand. Further, it provides customer support agreements, machine control systems, attachments, financing, and leasing; and insurance, rentals, spare parts, repairs, preventive maintenance, uptime and service agreements, and assistance services. It serves customers primarily in the transportation, infrastructure, construction, marine, industrial, and public transportation industries. The company offers its products and services through a network of dealers. AB Volvo (publ) was incorporated in 1915 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AB Volvo (publ), reported revenue of kr 479B in FY2025 versus kr 372B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was kr 34.5B in FY2025, compounding +1.2%/yr from FY2021.
VLVLY screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Blue Ops Integrates Volvo Penta D4-320 Propulsion System into Variant 7 Uncrewed Surface Vessel
- ‘I’m terrified my car will burst into flames’: Volvo drivers in revolt over ‘faulty’ EVs
- Volvo (OM:VOLV B) Stock Trades Below Fair Value Following Its 139% Run
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 147 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
| Ashok Leyland Limited ASHOKLEY | ₹157.49 | ₹124.10 | -21% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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