China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co (002554) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CN · Market cap 4.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥2.62 to ¥1.88 (−28.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −3.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥0.9000 to ¥3.00). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.00 – ¥5.25 · fair‑value band ¥0.9000 – ¥3.00 · the ¥2.82 price screens above the ¥1.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co (002554) currently trades at ¥2.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.88, implying the stock looks roughly 33.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co generated revenue of 2.4B CNY at a net margin of -18.0%. Revenue grew 17.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -20.1%. Net debt stands at 947M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.9000 (bear case) to ¥3.00 (bull case); at ¥2.82, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at -33%, 002554 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥0.9700) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.7400). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co., Ltd provides solutions for oil and gas development and exploitation in the South Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, Latin America, and internationally.
Full company description
China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co., Ltd provides solutions for oil and gas development and exploitation in the South Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, Latin America, and internationally. The company offers oil gas water treatment matching technologies and products; oil and gas metering and test solutions; oily sewage treatment solutions; oil and gas field heating equipment; and ground technologies, as well as undertakes EPC engineering projects. It also provides environmental protection equipment and services, including oily sludge recycling, aged oil treatment, pyrolysis and incineration harmless treatment, fracturing fluid acidizing treatment, and oil tank cleaning equipment, as well as environmental engineering services. In addition, the company provides oil and gas field automation systems; SCADA system integration for oil and gas storage and transportation networks; software systems and services; and oil field service digitization and automation solutions. Additionally, it engages in the operation and sale of natural gas resources. The company owns an interest in the Dagang Oilfield Kong South Block. China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co., Ltd was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co reported revenue of ¥2.3B in FY2025 versus ¥1.6B in FY2021, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was −¥370M in FY2025.
002554 screens 33% overvalued. Compare with SLB N.V →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 191 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLB N.V SLBN | 836.00 MXN | 533.97 MXN | -36% |
| Baker Hughes Company BKR | $55.95 | $33.55 | -40% |
| TechnipFMC plc FTI | $74.57 | $27.57 | -63% |
| Halliburton Company HAL | $35.22 | $21.50 | -39% |
| Tenaris S.A TS | $57.16 | $45.68 | -20% |
| Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 | ¥138.79 | ¥34.17 | -75% |
| Saipem SpA SPM | €4.20 | €2.72 | -35% |
| Subsea 7 S.A SUBC | kr 319.00 | kr 227.98 | -29% |
| China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 | ¥12.08 | ¥12.64 | +5% |
| Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT | €188.10 | €95.01 | -49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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