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China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd ¥1.62, price ¥2.82, upside -42.6%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · CN · ISIN CNE1000010K8

CO Thin data Sep 24, 2026

China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd

002554 · SHE

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥1.62 · Strongly overvalued (−43%)
!Quality 42/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +15.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -18.0% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

¥5.25 ¥2.10 Fair Value ¥1.62 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.10 – ¥5.25 · fair‑value band ¥0.9082 – ¥2.21 · the ¥2.82 price screens above the ¥1.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co., Ltd provides solutions for oil and gas development and exploitation in the South Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, Latin America, and internationally.

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China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co., Ltd provides solutions for oil and gas development and exploitation in the South Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, Latin America, and internationally. The company offers oil gas water treatment matching technologies and products; oil and gas metering and test solutions; oily sewage treatment solutions; oil and gas field heating equipment; and ground technologies, as well as undertakes EPC engineering projects. It also provides environmental protection equipment and services, including oily sludge recycling, aged oil treatment, pyrolysis and incineration harmless treatment, fracturing fluid acidizing treatment, and oil tank cleaning equipment, as well as environmental engineering services. In addition, the company provides oil and gas field automation systems; SCADA system integration for oil and gas storage and transportation networks; software systems and services; and oil field service digitization and automation solutions. Additionally, it engages in the operation and sale of natural gas resources. The company owns an interest in the Dagang Oilfield Kong South Block. China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co., Ltd was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554) currently trades at ¥2.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.62, implying the stock looks roughly 74.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥0.9700 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the ¥2.82 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.6300, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥0.9082 (bear) to ¥2.21 (bull), the price of ¥2.82 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was −370M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 4.3B CNY (≈ $643M) · P/S ratio 1.81 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.3300 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin −15.9% · Return on equity −20.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin 2.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −43%, 002554 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥0.9082 Fair Value ¥1.62 Bull ¥2.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM ¥0.3800 ¥0.6900 ¥0.9500 68
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.3800 ¥0.6300 ¥0.7300 67
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.7300 ¥0.9700 ¥1.45 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.3800 ¥0.6900 ¥0.9500 68
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.3800 ¥0.6300 ¥0.7300 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.7300 ¥0.9700 ¥1.45 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−26.6% (2020) → −3.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

002554 screens 74% overvalued. Compare with SLB N.V →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 190 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside −43% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −18% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.60× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.33× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.27× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)87 · sector 4
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)70 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)30 · sector 34

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SLB N.V SLB $52.12 $28.66 −45%
Baker Hughes Company BKR $57.26 $32.40 −43%
TechnipFMC plc FTI $70.82 $27.68 −61%
Halliburton Company HAL $32.85 $21.50 −35%
Tenaris S.A TEN €24.55 €18.99 −23%
Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 ¥118.92 ¥128.30 +8%
Saipem SpA SPM €4.36 €2.72 −38%
Subsea 7 S.A SUBC kr 319.80 kr 250.82 −22%
China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 ¥12.12 ¥13.04 +8%
Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT €222.60 €244.86 +10%

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China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥1.62 −74%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002554

Frequently asked questions

Is China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.62 versus a price of ¥2.82, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002554?
Our model-based fair value for China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd is ¥1.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.82.
What is the quality score of 002554?
China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.9082, optimistic scenario ¥2.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.62, about −43% upside versus a price of ¥2.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.9082, optimistic scenario ¥2.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd it is ¥1.62 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥2.82. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002554 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥2.82, fair value ¥1.62, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002554?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.62). For China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥1.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd at about 4.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.82; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002554?
Our models span a range for China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.9082, base ¥1.62, optimistic ¥2.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥2.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −20.1%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002554 from its 52-week high?
China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥2.82, about 45% below its 52-week high of ¥5.13 and 3% above the low of ¥2.74 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥2.82, calculated fair value ¥1.62 (−43%), Quality Score 42/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002554 calculated?
We run China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥2.82. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.62, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥0.9082 to ¥2.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554) come from?
Earnings per share at China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd grew −4.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.9 %, EBIT margin −9.4 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
The market capitalisation of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd is 4.3B CNY (≈ $643M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd is 1.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
Earnings per share at China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd are ¥−0.3300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
The dividend yield of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd is 1.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
The net margin of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd is −15.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd is −20.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
The operating margin of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
Revenue at China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554)?
Earnings per share at China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd are growing −4.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554) generate?
The free cash flow of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd is −609M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd (002554) carry?
The net debt of China Oil HBP Science & Technology Co Ltd is 947M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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