Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd ¥0.98, price ¥4.31, upside -77.3%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.40 – ¥4.83 · fair‑value band ¥0.6400 – ¥1.22 · the ¥4.31 price screens above the ¥0.9800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells semiconductor lighting products in China and internationally.
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Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells semiconductor lighting products in China and internationally. The company also provides outdoor, courtyard, and landscape lighting products, as well as tunnel, sports and stadium, explosion proof, solar, food processing, street, post-top, marine, and warehouse lighting products; and outdoor garden products, and energy-saving services. Its LED lighting products are used in smart, road, tunnel, commercial, and industrial lighting applications. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Dongguan, China.
Stock analysis
Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638) currently trades at ¥4.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.9800, implying the stock looks roughly 339.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: ¥0.6400 (bear) to ¥1.22 (bull), the price of ¥4.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd reported revenue of 386M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −22.1%/yr. Reported net income was −327M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 6.2B CNY (≈ $924M) · P/S ratio 16.9 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2400 · Net margin −84.7% · Return on equity −16.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.6% · Operating margin −16.9% · Revenue (TTM) 350M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −77%, 002638 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥0.6400Fair Value ¥0.9800Bull ¥1.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.6/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.6% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.3% (2020) → −17.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 559 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−98% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−17% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−24% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.48× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.64× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 58
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002638
Frequently asked questions
Is Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.9800 versus a price of ¥4.31, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002638?
Our model-based fair value for Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd is ¥0.9800 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.31.
What is the quality score of 002638?
Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.9800 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.6400, optimistic scenario ¥1.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.9800, about −77% upside versus a price of ¥4.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.6400, optimistic scenario ¥1.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 350M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd it is ¥0.9800 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥4.31. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 002638 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.31, fair value ¥0.9800, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002638?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.9800). For Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd the two are ¥3.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd worth?
The market values Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd at about 6.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.31; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.9800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002638?
Our models span a range for Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.6400, base ¥0.9800, optimistic ¥1.22 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥4.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −16.7%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002638 from its 52-week high?
Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd trades at ¥4.31, about 11% below its 52-week high of ¥4.83 and 75% above the low of ¥2.46 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.9800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥4.31, calculated fair value ¥0.9800 (−77%), Quality Score 44/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002638 calculated?
We run Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.9800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥4.31. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.9800, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥0.6400 to ¥1.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
The market capitalisation of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd is 6.2B CNY (≈ $924M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd is 16.9 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
Earnings per share at Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd are ¥−0.2400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
The net margin of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd is −84.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd is −16.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd is −7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
The operating margin of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd is −16.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638)?
Revenue at Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd is growing −24.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638) generate?
The free cash flow of Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd is −94.6M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd (002638) hold?
Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 191M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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