New Hope Dairy Co (002946) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 13.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥17.84 to ¥17.40 (−2.5%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +14.3% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from ¥12.44 (bear) to ¥22.30 (bull), base ¥17.40. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 67/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.64 – ¥20.49 · fair‑value band ¥12.44 – ¥22.30 · the ¥16.63 price screens below the ¥17.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
New Hope Dairy Co (002946) currently trades at ¥16.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.40, implying the stock looks roughly 4.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, New Hope Dairy Co generated revenue of 11.5B CNY at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue grew 8.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.0%. Net debt stands at 2.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥12.44 (bear case) to ¥22.30 (bull case); at ¥16.63, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 5%, 002946 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥20.84) versus Asset-Based (¥3.03). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd. produces and sells dairy products in China. It offers pasteurized milk, ultra-high temperature milk, modified milk, fermented milk, and other dairy products, as well as involved in food trading, dairy cattle breeding, and other businesses. New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd. was founded in 2006 and is based in Chengdu, China. New Hope Dairy Co.
Full company description
New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd. produces and sells dairy products in China. It offers pasteurized milk, ultra-high temperature milk, modified milk, fermented milk, and other dairy products, as well as involved in food trading, dairy cattle breeding, and other businesses. New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd. was founded in 2006 and is based in Chengdu, China. New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of UNIVERSAL DAIRY LIMITED.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
New Hope Dairy Co reported revenue of ¥11.2B in FY2025 versus ¥9.0B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥731M in FY2025, compounding +23.7%/yr from FY2021.
Watch 002946: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 653 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,427 | ₹362.37 | -75% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,413 | ₹1,870 | -65% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,089 | ₹327.27 | -70% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 6,650 IDR | 15,757 IDR | +137% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,139,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -11% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹413.80 | ₹157.04 | -62% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 58,500 VND | 68,259 VND | +17% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,750 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +54% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,490 IDR | 4,355 IDR | -3% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 348,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +52% |
Compare New Hope Dairy Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is New Hope Dairy Co (002946) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 002946?
What is the quality score of 002946?
What is the revenue of New Hope Dairy Co (002946)?
What is the net profit margin of 002946?
Does New Hope Dairy Co pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track New Hope Dairy Co and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.