Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥23.26 – ¥97.83 · fair‑value band ¥7.41 – ¥12.96 · the ¥25.15 price screens above the ¥9.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd engages in the agriculture and food processing businesses in China.
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Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd engages in the agriculture and food processing businesses in China. It provides packaged oil, rice, and flour; condiments; groundnut and sesame; grain and oil raw material, including soybean, wheat, corn, starch, and miscellaneous grains; feedstuff, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, cottonseed meal, FFS, PKE, SPC and by-products of rice, wheat and corn, and fatty acid calcium; and oleochemicals and derivatives comprising noodles, glycerin, dimer acid, polyamide resin, natural vitamin E, natural vegetable-based phytosterols, paper chemicals, high polymers, and green surfactants. The company also offers specialty oil, industry chocolate, flour, syrup, starch, vegetable protein, Vitamin E, lecithin, food grade glycerol, monoglyceride, ground rice powder, edible alcohol, cereal, and premix powder. In addition, it is involved in central kitchen food business; processing of various food crops, such as corn, soybeans, potatoes, and sugar beets; provision of logistic services, including warehousing, trunk and urban transportation, wharf, container, railway, shipping agency, and shipping services; and packaging, consumer pack, and food service business. It sells its products under the Arawana, Olivoila, Orchid, Wonder Farm, Arawana Fengyitang, Neptune, Fengyuan, Golden Delicious, Reyland, and Jiejin 100 brands. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd operates as a subsidiary of Bathos Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) currently trades at ¥25.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.98, implying the stock looks roughly 152.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥27.62 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥25.15 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥6.14, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥7.41 (bear) to ¥12.96 (bull), the price of ¥25.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of 245B CNY in FY2025 versus 226B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was 3.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 137B CNY (≈ $20.5B) · P/E ratio 37.5 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6700 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −60%, 300999 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥7.41Fair Value ¥9.98Bull ¥12.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3195 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12% vs 17%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 2%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 648 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−63% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)37.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.42× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.54× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF1.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.3× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)55· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)18· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300999
Frequently asked questions
Is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.98 versus a price of ¥25.15, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300999?
Our model-based fair value for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is ¥9.98 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥25.15.
What is the quality score of 300999?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥9.98 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.41, optimistic scenario ¥12.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥9.98, about −60% upside versus a price of ¥25.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.41, optimistic scenario ¥12.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 252B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.91% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300999 use?
Our models discount Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd that is +1.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies +1.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (+1.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.79 %: that much free cash flow Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd it is ¥9.98 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ¥25.15. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 300999 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥25.15, fair value ¥9.98, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300999?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥25.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥9.98). For Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd the two are ¥15.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd worth?
The market values Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd at about 137B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ¥25.15; our models calculate a fair value of ¥9.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300999?
Our models span a range for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥7.41, base ¥9.98, optimistic ¥12.96 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ¥25.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300999?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.5 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥9.98 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 3.8%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300999 from its 52-week high?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd trades at ¥25.15, about 26% below its 52-week high of ¥34.04 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥9.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ¥25.15, calculated fair value ¥9.98 (−60%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300999 calculated?
We run Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥9.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was ¥25.15. Our model-based fair value is ¥9.98, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥12.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The market capitalisation of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 137B CNY (≈ $20.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 0.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Earnings per share at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd are ¥0.6700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The dividend yield of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 0.9% (payout 34.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The net margin of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The operating margin of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Revenue at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is growing +10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Earnings per share at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd are growing +50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) carry?
The net debt of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 41.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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