Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 137B CNY

A solid business, but screening 62% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥12.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥23.26 – ¥97.83 · fair‑value band ¥7.41 – ¥12.96 · the ¥26.09 price screens above the ¥9.89 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

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Analysis

Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999) currently trades at ¥26.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.89, implying the stock looks roughly 62.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings generated revenue of 252B CNY at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue grew 10.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.8%. Net debt stands at 41.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥7.41 (bear case) to ¥12.96 (bull case); at ¥26.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -62%, 300999 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥27.32) versus Dividend Discount (¥6.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd engages in the agriculture and food processing businesses in China. It provides packaged oil, rice, and flour; condiments; groundnut and sesame; grain and oil raw material, including soybean, wheat, corn, starch, and miscellaneous grains; feedstuff, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, cottonseed meal, FFS, PKE, SPC and …

Full company description

Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd engages in the agriculture and food processing businesses in China. It provides packaged oil, rice, and flour; condiments; groundnut and sesame; grain and oil raw material, including soybean, wheat, corn, starch, and miscellaneous grains; feedstuff, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, cottonseed meal, FFS, PKE, SPC and by-products of rice, wheat and corn, and fatty acid calcium; and oleochemicals and derivatives comprising noodles, glycerin, dimer acid, polyamide resin, natural vitamin E, natural vegetable-based phytosterols, paper chemicals, high polymers, and green surfactants. The company also offers specialty oil, industry chocolate, flour, syrup, starch, vegetable protein, Vitamin E, lecithin, food grade glycerol, monoglyceride, ground rice powder, edible alcohol, cereal, and premix powder. In addition, it is involved in central kitchen food business; processing of various food crops, such as corn, soybeans, potatoes, and sugar beets; provision of logistic services, including warehousing, trunk and urban transportation, wharf, container, railway, shipping agency, and shipping services; and packaging, consumer pack, and food service business. It sells its products under the Arawana, Olivoila, Orchid, Wonder Farm, Arawana Fengyitang, Neptune, Fengyuan, Golden Delicious, Reyland, and Jiejin 100 brands. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd operates as a subsidiary of Bathos Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings reported revenue of ¥245B in FY2025 versus ¥226B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥3.2B in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2021.

300999 screens 62% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 650 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.