Hes Technology Group (002963) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hes Technology Group ¥2.44, price ¥23.51, upside -89.6%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value ¥2.44 · Strongly overvalued (−90%)
!Quality 45/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −10.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -31.6% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(2/11)
!Narrow moat9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.96 – ¥23.90 · fair‑value band ¥2.09 – ¥3.04 · the ¥23.51 price screens above the ¥2.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Haoersai Technology Group Corp., Ltd. designs, constructs, procures, operates, maintains, and sells lighting engineering products primarily in China.
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Haoersai Technology Group Corp., Ltd. designs, constructs, procures, operates, maintains, and sells lighting engineering products primarily in China. The company offers smart light poles that are applied to various scenarios, including smart communities, smart security, and smart parking; and smart city and town, digital village, smart parking and security, and smart sanitation solutions. It also provides green electric transportation smart energy solutions. The company was formerly known as HES Technology Group Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Haoersai Technology Group Corp., Ltd. in May 2020. Haoersai Technology Group Corp., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Hes Technology Group (002963) currently trades at ¥23.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.44, implying the stock looks roughly 863.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥5.31 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the ¥23.51 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.68, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.09 (bear) to ¥3.04 (bull), the price of ¥23.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Hes Technology Group reported revenue of 346M CNY in FY2025 versus 788M CNY in FY2021, a compound −18.6%/yr. Reported net income was −127M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.5B CNY (≈ $527M) · P/S ratio 7.93 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.7300 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin −36.8% · Return on equity −8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.9% · Operating margin −12.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −90%, 002963 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥2.09Fair Value ¥2.44Bull ¥3.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.12/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−24.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.8% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.9% (2020) → −7.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+53.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +51.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−90% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−32% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.44× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.52× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF23.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)11· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)22· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hes Technology Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002963
Frequently asked questions
Is Hes Technology Group (002963) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.44 versus a price of ¥23.51, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002963?
Our model-based fair value for Hes Technology Group is ¥2.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥23.51.
What is the quality score of 002963?
Hes Technology Group has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hes Technology Group (002963)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.09, optimistic scenario ¥3.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hes Technology Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.44, about −90% upside versus a price of ¥23.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.09, optimistic scenario ¥3.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
Hes Technology Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 348M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hes Technology Group pay a dividend?
Hes Technology Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hes Technology Group (002963)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hes Technology Group would have to grow free cash flow by +53.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -10.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002963 use?
Our models discount Hes Technology Group at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hes Technology Group that is +53.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hes Technology Group (002963) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hes Technology Group grew -10.3 % a year. The price currently implies +53.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hes Technology Group (002963) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hes Technology Group (+53.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.62 %: that much free cash flow Hes Technology Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hes Technology Group it is ¥2.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥23.51. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hes Technology Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002963 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥23.51, fair value ¥2.44, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002963?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥23.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.44). For Hes Technology Group the two are ¥21.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hes Technology Group worth?
The market values Hes Technology Group at about 3.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥23.51; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002963?
Our models span a range for Hes Technology Group: cautious scenario ¥2.09, base ¥2.44, optimistic ¥3.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥23.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hes Technology Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −8.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002963 from its 52-week high?
Hes Technology Group trades at ¥23.51, about 2% below its 52-week high of ¥23.90 and 96% above the low of ¥12.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hes Technology Group?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Delta Electronics, Inc, Corning Incorporated, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hes Technology Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥23.51, calculated fair value ¥2.44 (−90%), Quality Score 45/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002963 calculated?
We run Hes Technology Group through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hes Technology Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥23.51. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.44, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hes Technology Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Hes Technology Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
The market capitalisation of Hes Technology Group is 3.5B CNY (≈ $527M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hes Technology Group is 7.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
Earnings per share at Hes Technology Group are ¥−0.7300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
The dividend yield of Hes Technology Group is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
The net margin of Hes Technology Group is −36.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hes Technology Group is −8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hes Technology Group is −3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hes Technology Group (002963)?
The operating margin of Hes Technology Group is −12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hes Technology Group (002963)?
Revenue at Hes Technology Group is growing +2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hes Technology Group (002963)?
Earnings per share at Hes Technology Group are growing −84.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hes Technology Group (002963) hold?
Hes Technology Group holds more cash than debt, 331M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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