Honghua Group Ltd (0196) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Honghua Group Ltd HK$0.07, price HK$0.10, upside -26.3%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0710 – HK$0.2950 · fair‑value band HK$0.0500 – HK$0.0900 · the HK$0.0950 price screens above the HK$0.0700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Honghua Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, design, manufacture, setting, and sale of land rigs, and related parts and components. The company operates through five segments: Land Drilling Rigs; Parts and Components and Others; Drilling Engineering Services; Fracturing Services; and Offshore Engineering.
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Honghua Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, design, manufacture, setting, and sale of land rigs, and related parts and components. The company operates through five segments: Land Drilling Rigs; Parts and Components and Others; Drilling Engineering Services; Fracturing Services; and Offshore Engineering. The company offers drilling rigs equipment, such as smart, polar, desert, fast moving, artificial island, vehicle-mounted/semi-trailer, geothermal drilling rigs, and electric well workover rig, as well as parts and accessories. It also offers fracturing equipment, including all-electric fracturing equipment solutions, and digital electric and hydraulic drive coiled tubing machine. In addition, the company offers photovoltaic solutions for the oil and gas industry; wind power generation service, including planning and demonstration, wind measurement, equipment selection, energy planning and management, construction, commissioning, and operation and maintenance; and gas power generation, as well as energy storage systems. Further, it manufactures panels of drilling rigs, and petroleum power equipment; trades in drilling rigs and related parts; designs and manufactures offshore drilling modules; and provides testing, marketing, technical support and training, drilling engineering services, and after-sales service, such as rig installation, commissioning, and solution. Additionally, it offers digital products for drilling and completion, offshore wind power jackets, specialized ships, and special power equipment. It operates in the People's Republic of China, the Americas, the Middle East, Europe, South Asia and South East Asia, and Africa. Honghua Group Limited was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Chengdu, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Honghua Group Ltd (0196) currently trades at HK$0.0950, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0700, implying the stock looks roughly 35.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$0.2600 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$0.0950 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0300, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0500 (bear) to HK$0.0900 (bull), the price of HK$0.0950 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Honghua Group Ltd reported revenue of 5.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.9%/yr. Reported net income was 38.3M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.3B (≈ $163M) · P/S ratio 0.23 · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% · Operating margin 2.9% · Revenue (TTM) 5.5B CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) +1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −26%, 0196 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0500Fair Value HK$0.0700Bull HK$0.0900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−21.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22% vs −17%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 12.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 190 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−31% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.05× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.03× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG1.16× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)6· sector 6
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Honghua Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0196
Frequently asked questions
Is Honghua Group Ltd (0196) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0700 versus a price of HK$0.0950, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0196?
Our model-based fair value for Honghua Group Ltd is HK$0.0700 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0950.
What is the quality score of 0196?
Honghua Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0700 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0500, optimistic scenario HK$0.0900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Honghua Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0700, about −26% upside versus a price of HK$0.0950 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0500, optimistic scenario HK$0.0900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
Honghua Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Honghua Group Ltd it is HK$0.0700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0950. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Honghua Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0196 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0950, fair value HK$0.0700, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0196?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0950); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0700). For Honghua Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0250 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Honghua Group Ltd worth?
The market values Honghua Group Ltd at about HK$1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0950; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0196?
Our models span a range for Honghua Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0500, base HK$0.0700, optimistic HK$0.0900 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.0950). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 0196?
The PEG ratio of Honghua Group Ltd is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
Balance-sheet figures for Honghua Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.1%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0196 from its 52-week high?
Honghua Group Ltd trades at HK$0.0950, about 61% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2410 and at the low of HK$0.0950 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Honghua Group Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Honghua Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.0950, calculated fair value HK$0.0700 (−26%), Quality Score 32/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0196 calculated?
We run Honghua Group Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Honghua Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$0.0950. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0700, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Honghua Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Honghua Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
The market capitalisation of Honghua Group Ltd is HK$1.3B (≈ $163M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Honghua Group Ltd is 0.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
The net margin of Honghua Group Ltd is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Honghua Group Ltd is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Honghua Group Ltd is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
The operating margin of Honghua Group Ltd is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
Revenue at Honghua Group Ltd is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Honghua Group Ltd (0196)?
Earnings per share at Honghua Group Ltd are growing −74.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Honghua Group Ltd (0196) generate?
The free cash flow of Honghua Group Ltd is −199M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Honghua Group Ltd (0196) carry?
The net debt of Honghua Group Ltd is 3.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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