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Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd HK$1.20, price HK$0.91, upside +31.9%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · HK · ISIN KYG5699G1367

XN Thin data Oct 4, 2026

Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd

0309 · HK

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

Fair value HK$1.20 · Undervalued (+31.9%)
Low debt
Quality 50/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.6 %/yr in HKD)
Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
Loss-making · -3.7% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 6/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$3.64 HK$0.8500 Fair Value HK$1.20 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.8500 – HK$3.64 · fair‑value band HK$0.7900 – HK$1.49 · the HK$0.9100 price screens below the HK$1.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Xinhua News Media Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides cleaning and related services in Hong Kong. It operates in three segments: Advertising Media Business, Cleaning and Related Services, and Waste Treatment Business.

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Xinhua News Media Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides cleaning and related services in Hong Kong. It operates in three segments: Advertising Media Business, Cleaning and Related Services, and Waste Treatment Business. The Cleaning and Related Services segment provides cleaning and related services for office buildings, public areas, and residential areas. The Advertising Media Business segment offers media strategy, planning and management, product launching and selling, brand building, and event marketing services; and develops and operates advertising media. The Waste Treatment Business segment provides organic waste treatment services; and sells by-products. In addition, it engages in supply chain business. The company was formerly known as Lo's Enviro-Pro Holdings Limited and changed its name to Xinhua News Media Holdings Limited in May 2011. Xinhua News Media Holdings Limited was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309) currently trades at HK$0.9100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.20, implying the stock looks roughly 24.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.7900 (bear) to HK$1.49 (bull), the price of HK$0.9100 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$358M in FY2026 versus HK$276M in FY2022, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$13.3M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap HK$47.4M (≈ $6.0M) · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0027 · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity −17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.6% · Operating margin −4.8% · Revenue (TTM) HK$358M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 32%, 0309 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.7900 Fair Value HK$1.20 Bull HK$1.49
Price HK$0.9100 · Upside +31.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6800 HK$0.9200 HK$1.37 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6800 HK$0.9200 HK$1.37 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 74
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−10.9% (2021) → −4.5% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 234 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside +31.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −6.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −3.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −4.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −2.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.08× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)76 · sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 52

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Cintas Corporation CTAS $197.74 $188.06 −5%
Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI $99.36 $70.79 −29%
Copart, Inc CPRT $27.14 $31.02 +14%
Global Payments Inc GPN $83.33 $88.43 +6%
Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL €67.82 €98.05 +45%
Brambles Limited BXB A$18.55 A$18.66 +1%
RB Global, Inc RBA C$116.74 C$128.41 +10%
Aramark ARMK $54.92 $23.06 −58%
UL Solutions Inc ULS $66.05 $33.46 −49%
Rentokil Initial plc RTO $20.64 $19.63 −5%

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HK$1.20 +24%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0309.HK

Frequently asked questions

Is Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.20 versus a price of HK$0.9100, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0309?
Our model-based fair value for Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd is HK$1.20 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.9100.
What is the quality score of 0309?
Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.20 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.7900, optimistic scenario HK$1.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.20, about +32% upside versus a price of HK$0.9100 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.7900, optimistic scenario HK$1.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$358M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.20 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of HK$0.9100. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 0309 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.9100, fair value HK$1.20, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0309?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.9100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.20). For Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.2900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd at about HK$47.4M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.9100; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0309?
Our models span a range for Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.7900, base HK$1.20, optimistic HK$1.49 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price HK$0.9100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −17.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0309 from its 52-week high?
Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.9100, about 55% below its 52-week high of HK$2.04 and 7% above the low of HK$0.8500 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price HK$0.9100, calculated fair value HK$1.20 (+32%), Quality Score 50/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0309 calculated?
We run Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$0.9100. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.20, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.7900 to HK$1.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
The market capitalisation of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd is HK$47.4M (≈ $6.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd is 0.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
Earnings per share at Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0027. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
The net margin of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd is −3.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd is −17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd is −9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
The operating margin of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd is −4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
Revenue at Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd is growing −2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309)?
Earnings per share at Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd are growing +513% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309) generate?
The free cash flow of Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd is −HK$11.1M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd (0309) hold?
Xinhua News Media Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$50.9M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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