Aramark Holdings (ARMK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aramark Holdings stock $23.04, price $52.33, that is 56.0% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.13 – $62.39 · fair‑value band $10.46 – $34.05 · the $52.33 price screens above the $23.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Aramark provides food and facilities services to education, healthcare, business and industry, sports, leisure, and corrections clients in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Food and Support Services United States, and Food and Support Services International.
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It offers food-related managed services, including dining, catering, food service management, and convenience-oriented retail services; non-clinical food and food-related support services, such as patient food and nutrition, retail food, environmental services, and procurement services; and plant operations and maintenance, custodial/housekeeping, energy management, grounds keeping, and capital project management services.
The company also provides on-site restaurants, catering, convenience stores, and executive dining services; beverage and vending services; and facility management services comprising landscaping, transportation, capital program management, payment services, and other facility consulting services relating to building operations.
In addition, it offers concessions, banquet, and catering services; retail services and merchandise sale, recreational, and lodging services; and facility management services at sports, entertainment, and recreational facilities.
Further, the company offers correctional food; and operates commissaries, laundry facilities, and property rooms. The company was formerly known as ARAMARK Holdings Corporation. Aramark was founded in 1959 and is based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Aramark Holdings (ARMK) currently trades at $52.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.04, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $27.24 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $52.33 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.40, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.46 (bear) to $34.05 (bull), the price of $52.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Aramark Holdings reported revenue of $18.5B in FY2025 versus $12.1B in FY2021, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was $326M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $14.1B Large · P/E ratio 36.6 · P/S ratio 0.71 · EPS (TTM) $1.43 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 11.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −56%, ARMK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.46Fair Value $23.04Bull$34.05
Price $52.33 · Downside -56.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9500 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $5.3M and none bought.
SaleMarc A BrunoCOO, U.S. Food & Facilities70,634 shares at $61.03$4.3MAug 13, 2026
SaleLauren A HarringtonEVP and General Counsel18,363 shares at $53.05$974,226May 18, 2026
Plus 45 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Per share before 2023divided by the spin-off factor 1.385
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.0% vs 5.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.3% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited durable advantage in a competitive service business with thin margins forms the core weakness, while expansion of Nexus services into data centers represents the main growth strength.
Main risk: Ongoing class-action lawsuits and past contract issues in correctional facilities could lead to lost contracts or stricter oversight in Aramark's prison food services segment.
Bull case: Aramark could strengthen compliance and quality controls in corrections while expanding its higher-margin Nexus data center services to offset any segment pressures.
Bear case: Repeated legal challenges or contract terminations in corrections might erode revenue from that segment and damage reputation across other institutional clients.
Aramark is expanding its Nexus services to supply hospitality and facilities management at data centers, including a recent win supporting up to 4,000 workers at an AI facility in Texas. The established operations continue to add clients in arenas, campuses and healthcare, yet this newer area could drive outsized revenue if execution holds. Will the data center ramp deliver more growth than the company can absorb without straining its core margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−56.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.7% · Above median
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.71× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)36.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.46× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.71× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow30.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.0× · Pricier than median
PEG0.87× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)47· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)47· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)15· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)18· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aramark Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARMK
Frequently asked questions
Is Aramark Holdings (ARMK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.04 versus a price of $52.33, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARMK?
Our model-based fair value for Aramark Holdings is $23.04 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.33.
What is the quality score of ARMK?
Aramark Holdings has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.04 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.46, optimistic scenario $34.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aramark Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.04, about 56% lower versus a price of $52.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.46, optimistic scenario $34.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
Aramark Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Aramark Holdings pay a dividend?
Aramark Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of 0.92% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aramark Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +23.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARMK use?
Our models discount Aramark Holdings at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aramark Holdings that is +23.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aramark Holdings (ARMK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aramark Holdings grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies +23.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aramark Holdings (ARMK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aramark Holdings (+23.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.23 %: that much free cash flow Aramark Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aramark Holdings it is $23.04 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $52.33. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aramark Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, ARMK trades above its calculated fair value: price $52.33, fair value $23.04, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARMK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($52.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.04). For Aramark Holdings the two are $29.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aramark Holdings worth?
The market values Aramark Holdings at about $14.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $52.33; our models calculate a fair value of $23.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARMK?
Our models span a range for Aramark Holdings: cautious scenario $10.46, base $23.04, optimistic $34.05 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $52.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARMK?
Aramark Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.6 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.04 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 39.1 (reported for FY2025: 42.9). Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 4.5, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ARMK?
The PEG ratio of Aramark Holdings is 0.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aramark Holdings (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 11.7%, debt of 1.71 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARMK from its 52-week high?
Aramark Holdings trades at $52.33, about 16% below its 52-week high of $62.39 and 46% above the low of $35.73 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aramark Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aramark Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $52.33, calculated fair value $23.04 (−56%), Quality Score 54/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARMK calculated?
We run Aramark Holdings through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Aramark Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $52.33. Our model-based fair value is $23.04, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aramark Holdings right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($34.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($10.46 to $34.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Aramark Holdings (ARMK) come from?
Earnings per share at Aramark Holdings grew +6.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin −0.9 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aramark Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
The market capitalisation of Aramark Holdings is $14.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aramark Holdings is 0.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
Earnings per share at Aramark Holdings are $1.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
The dividend yield of Aramark Holdings is 0.9% (payout 30.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 33.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
The net margin of Aramark Holdings is 1.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aramark Holdings is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aramark Holdings is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
The operating margin of Aramark Holdings is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
Revenue at Aramark Holdings is growing +9.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aramark Holdings (ARMK)?
Earnings per share at Aramark Holdings are growing +33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aramark Holdings (ARMK) carry?
The net debt of Aramark Holdings is $5.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026