Aramark (ARMK) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $14.9B
Aramark
ARMK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $13.66 to $13.73 (+0.5%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +0.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($10.50 to $28.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.13 – $58.15 · fair‑value band $10.50 – $28.64 · the $56.31 price screens above the $13.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Aramark (ARMK) currently trades at $56.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.73, implying the stock looks roughly 75.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aramark generated revenue of $19.4B at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue grew 14.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.2%. Net debt stands at $5.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.50 (bear case) to $28.64 (bull case); at $56.31, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -76%, ARMK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($21.14) versus Dividend Discount ($5.88). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aramark provides food and facilities services to education, healthcare, business and industry, sports, leisure, and corrections clients in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Food and Support Services United States, and Food and Support Services International.
Full company description
Aramark provides food and facilities services to education, healthcare, business and industry, sports, leisure, and corrections clients in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Food and Support Services United States, and Food and Support Services International. It offers food-related managed services, including dining, catering, food service management, and convenience-oriented retail services; non-clinical food and food-related support services, such as patient food and nutrition, retail food, environmental services, and procurement services; and plant operations and maintenance, custodial/housekeeping, energy management, grounds keeping, and capital project management services. The company also provides on-site restaurants, catering, convenience stores, and executive dining services; beverage and vending services; and facility management services comprising landscaping, transportation, capital program management, payment services, and other facility consulting services relating to building operations. In addition, it offers concessions, banquet, and catering services; retail services and merchandise sale, recreational, and lodging services; and facility management services at sports, entertainment, and recreational facilities. Further, the company offers correctional food; and operates commissaries, laundry facilities, and property rooms. The company was formerly known as ARAMARK Holdings Corporation. Aramark was founded in 1959 and is based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aramark reported revenue of $18.5B in FY2025 versus $12.1B in FY2021, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was $326M in FY2025.
ARMK screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Cintas Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- UNITE HERE Local 11 Releases Letter Urging Greene County Ohio Board of Commissioners and Captain Tony Buschur to Consider Aramark’s Problema
- Aramark Correctional Services Reimagines Dining with Beyond the Tray, a First-of-Its-Kind Hospitality Program
- Aramark Seen Benefiting From Data Centers, Core Momentum, Truist Says
- UNITE HERE Local 11 Sues State Prisons for Withholding Information About Embattled Prison Food Service Contractor Aramark
Peer Group
Specialty Business Services · 255 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation CTAS | $206.25 | $95.30 | -54% |
| RELX PLC RELX | $33.70 | $32.49 | -4% |
| Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI | C$133.87 | C$70.40 | -47% |
| Copart, Inc CPRT | $27.61 | $28.59 | +4% |
| Global Payments Inc GPN | $80.49 | $69.67 | -13% |
| RB Global, Inc RBA | C$156.43 | C$49.14 | -69% |
| Brambles Limited BXB | A$18.79 | A$12.28 | -35% |
| UL Solutions Inc ULS | $87.76 | $33.62 | -62% |
| Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL | €62.56 | €103.99 | +66% |
| Rentokil Initial plc RTO | $30.41 | $19.63 | -35% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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