China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd HK$1.09, price HK$0.54, upside +101.9%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4500 – HK$18.82 · fair‑value band HK$0.6510 – HK$1.79 · the HK$0.5400 price screens below the HK$1.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates photovoltaic and wind power plants in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Industrial Investment; Standard Investment; Non-Standard Investment; and Licensed Financial Services segments.
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Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates photovoltaic and wind power plants in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Industrial Investment; Standard Investment; Non-Standard Investment; and Licensed Financial Services segments. The Industrial Investment segment engages in industrial investment-related businesses. Its Standard Investment segment trades listed securities and bonds for interest income, dividend income, and capital appreciation. The Non-Standard Investment segment engages in the direct investment business, including investments in debt instruments, unlisted bonds, notes, unlisted equity investments, and investment funds. Its Licensed Financial Services segment provides money lending, securities brokerage, asset management, financial leasing, and advisory services. The company also engages in the operation of clean energy projects; construction of photovoltaic power plants and clean heat supply facilities; trading platform structure; financial taxation analysis; investment in securities; property holding; issuance of guaranteed bonds and perpetual capital instruments; infrastructure development; and trading of equipment. In addition, it provides corporate, business factoring, technical consultancy, and clean heat supply, and photovoltaic power-related services. The company was formerly known as China Shandong Hi-Speed Financial Group Limited and changed its name to Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Group Limited in July 2022. Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Group Limited was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412) currently trades at HK$0.5400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.09, implying the stock looks roughly 50.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$3.95 per share, and 3 of the 3 models we run sit above the HK$0.5400 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.8400, and 0 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.6510 (bear) to HK$1.79 (bull), the price of HK$0.5400 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Innovative Finance Group Ltd reported revenue of 5.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +48.7%/yr. Reported net income was −134M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.2B (≈ $414M) · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Net margin −2.4% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% · Operating margin 19.8% · Revenue (TTM) 5.0B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 88% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 102%, 0412 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.6510Fair Value HK$1.09Bull HK$1.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0075 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.1% (2020) → 27.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare China Innovative Finance Group Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 661 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+101.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−2.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)19.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)16.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.08× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.3× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 57
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 81
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Innovative Finance Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0412
Frequently asked questions
Is China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.09 versus a price of HK$0.5400, about +102% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0412?
Our model-based fair value for China Innovative Finance Group Ltd is HK$1.09 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5400.
What is the quality score of 0412?
China Innovative Finance Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.09 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.6510, optimistic scenario HK$1.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Innovative Finance Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.09, about +102% upside versus a price of HK$0.5400 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.6510, optimistic scenario HK$1.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
China Innovative Finance Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Innovative Finance Group Ltd it is HK$1.09 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$0.5400. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Innovative Finance Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0412 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.5400, fair value HK$1.09, a gap of about +102% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0412?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.5400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.09). For China Innovative Finance Group Ltd the two are HK$0.5500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Innovative Finance Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Innovative Finance Group Ltd at about HK$3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.5400; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0412?
Our models span a range for China Innovative Finance Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.6510, base HK$1.09, optimistic HK$1.79 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$0.5400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0412 from its 52-week high?
China Innovative Finance Group Ltd trades at HK$0.5400, about 88% below its 52-week high of HK$4.63 and 20% above the low of HK$0.4500 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Innovative Finance Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Innovative Finance Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$0.5400, calculated fair value HK$1.09 (+102%), Quality Score 41/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0412 calculated?
We run China Innovative Finance Group Ltd through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. China Innovative Finance Group Ltd currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.5400. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.09, about +102% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Innovative Finance Group Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.6510). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.6510 to HK$1.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
The market capitalisation of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd is HK$3.2B (≈ $414M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd is 0.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
Earnings per share at China Innovative Finance Group Ltd are HK$0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
The net margin of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd is −2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
The operating margin of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
Revenue at China Innovative Finance Group Ltd is growing −8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412)?
Earnings per share at China Innovative Finance Group Ltd are growing +50.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412) generate?
The free cash flow of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd is 2.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Innovative Finance Group Ltd (0412) carry?
The net debt of China Innovative Finance Group Ltd is 44.3B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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