AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of AV Concept Holdings Ltd HK$0.44, price HK$1.13, upside -61.1%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2722 – HK$1.94 · fair‑value band HK$0.3800 – HK$0.5100 · the HK$1.13 price screens above the HK$0.4400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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AV Concept Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the marketing and distribution of electronic components in Hong Kong and Singapore. It operates through four segments: Semiconductor Distribution, Consumer Product and Product Sourcing Business, Venture Capital, and Others.
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AV Concept Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the marketing and distribution of electronic components in Hong Kong and Singapore. It operates through four segments: Semiconductor Distribution, Consumer Product and Product Sourcing Business, Venture Capital, and Others. The company also engages in the design, development, and sale of consumer products, as well as product sourcing services. In addition, it invests in listed/unlisted equity and debt investments, managed funds, convertible bonds, and listed bonds; provides online advertising and event organization services; and operates parenting platform under the He She Kids brand name. Further, the company engages in the internet social media business; and provision of web design, development, and content creation services. AV Concept Holdings Limited was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595) currently trades at HK$1.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.4400, 61.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$1.46 per share, and 10 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$1.13 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2900, and 12 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.3800 (bear) to HK$0.5100 (bull), the price of HK$1.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
AV Concept Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2026 versus HK$1.0B in FY2022, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$232M in FY2026, compounding +0.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.0B (≈ $131M) · P/E ratio 16.1 · P/S ratio 2.80 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700 · Net margin 17.4% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.6% · Operating margin 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 205% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −61%, 0595 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.3800Fair Value HK$0.4400Bull HK$0.5100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0351 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +0.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.1% vs 5.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.2%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2026, which sits 332% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.6% a year for the price.
Compare AV Concept Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronics & Computer Distribution · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−61.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.6% · Above median
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)17.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−14.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronics & Computer Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)16.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.52× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.77× · Pricier than median
P/FCF60.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA55.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 60
PAST (return on equity)50· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.4400 versus a price of HK$1.13, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0595?
Our model-based fair value for AV Concept Holdings Ltd is HK$0.4400 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.13.
What is the quality score of 0595?
AV Concept Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.4400 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.3800, optimistic scenario HK$0.5100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AV Concept Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.4400, about −61% upside versus a price of HK$1.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.3800, optimistic scenario HK$0.5100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
AV Concept Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AV Concept Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +37.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0595 use?
Our models discount AV Concept Holdings Ltd at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AV Concept Holdings Ltd that is +37.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AV Concept Holdings Ltd grew +1.5 % a year. The price currently implies +37.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AV Concept Holdings Ltd (+37.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.67 %: that much free cash flow AV Concept Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AV Concept Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.4400 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.13. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AV Concept Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0595 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.13, fair value HK$0.4400, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0595?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.4400). For AV Concept Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.6900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AV Concept Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values AV Concept Holdings Ltd at about HK$1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.13; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.4400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0595?
Our models span a range for AV Concept Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.3800, base HK$0.4400, optimistic HK$0.5100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0595?
AV Concept Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.4400 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 55.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
Balance-sheet figures for AV Concept Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 12.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0595 from its 52-week high?
AV Concept Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.13, about 42% below its 52-week high of HK$1.94 and 205% above the low of HK$0.3700 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.4400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AV Concept Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value TD SYNNEX Corporation, Unisplendour Corporation, Rexel S.A, Arrow Electronics, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AV Concept Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.13, calculated fair value HK$0.4400 (−61%), Quality Score 57/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0595 calculated?
We run AV Concept Holdings Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.4400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. AV Concept Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$1.13. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.4400, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AV Concept Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.5100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of AV Concept Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
The market capitalisation of AV Concept Holdings Ltd is HK$1.0B (≈ $131M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AV Concept Holdings Ltd is 2.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
Earnings per share at AV Concept Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
The net margin of AV Concept Holdings Ltd is 17.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AV Concept Holdings Ltd is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AV Concept Holdings Ltd is −1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
The operating margin of AV Concept Holdings Ltd is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
Revenue at AV Concept Holdings Ltd is growing −14.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595)?
Earnings per share at AV Concept Holdings Ltd are growing +10.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does AV Concept Holdings Ltd (0595) hold?
AV Concept Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$141M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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