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AAK AB (0A0J) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AAK AB SEK 95.63, price SEK 182, upside -47.5%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · GB · Home Sweden · ISIN SE0011337708

AA Thin data Sep 24, 2026

AAK AB

0A0J · LSE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value kr 95.63 · Strongly overvalued (−47.5%)
!Quality 56/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +8.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
·3.0% dividend yield · Safety not assessed
!Moderate moat 52/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 327.30 kr 134.10 Fair Value kr 95.63 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 134.10 – kr 327.30 · fair‑value band kr 66.94 – kr 124.32 · the kr 182.15 price screens above the kr 95.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

AAK AB (publ.) develops and sells plant-based oils and fats in Sweden and internationally. It operates through Food Ingredients, Chocolate & Confectionery Fats, and Technical Products & Feed segments.

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AAK AB (publ.) develops and sells plant-based oils and fats in Sweden and internationally. It operates through Food Ingredients, Chocolate & Confectionery Fats, and Technical Products & Feed segments. The company offers food ingredients for chocolate and confectionery; dairy and ice cream; bakery; lecithin; special nutrition; foodservice and retail; personal care; candles; technical products; and animal nutrition. It also provides natural emulsifiers; fatty acids; plant-based candle waxes; and animal feed, proteins, and fats products. AAK AB (publ.) was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.

Stock analysis

AAK AB (0A0J) currently trades at kr 182.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 95.63, 47.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 102.78 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the kr 182.15 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 30.56, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: kr 66.94 (bear) to kr 124.32 (bull), the price of kr 182.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

AAK AB reported revenue of 35.5B SEK in FY2021 versus 26.4B SEK in FY2017, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B SEK in FY2021, compounding +4.7%/yr from FY2017.

Key figures

Market cap 47.0B SEK (≈ $4.7B) · P/S ratio 1.03 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6% · Operating margin 9.8% · Revenue (TTM) 45.6B SEK.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −48%, 0A0J screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 66.94 Fair Value kr 95.63 Bull kr 124.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV kr 51.10 kr 59.54 kr 66.83 74
Residual Income kr 41.97 kr 48.82 kr 65.28 73
ROIC Compounder kr 52.90 kr 68.58 kr 89.21 69
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 37.83 kr 137.30 kr 185.20 61
Lynch FV kr 32.60 kr 46.57 kr 60.54 58
PEG = 1.0 kr 32.60 kr 46.57 kr 60.54 55
EPV kr 51.10 kr 59.54 kr 66.83 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM kr 21.97 kr 43.77 kr 66.28 64
DDM Multi-Stage kr 21.97 kr 37.83 kr 46.20 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 87.62 kr 116.83 kr 146.04 63
P/S Multiple kr 70.93 kr 94.58 kr 118.22 58
P/B Multiple kr 70.93 kr 94.58 kr 118.22 55
EV/EBIT kr 100.76 kr 135.13 kr 169.50 66
EV/EBITDA kr 106.65 kr 142.99 kr 179.33 67
EV/Revenue kr 71.24 kr 102.78 kr 134.32 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 22.81 kr 30.56 kr 45.62 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 41.97 kr 48.82 kr 65.28 73
ROIC Compounder kr 52.90 kr 68.58 kr 89.21 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 61.66 kr 88.08 kr 114.51 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 57
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+26.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.8% (2017) → 5.9% (2021)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

0A0J screens overvalued: fair value 48% below the price. Compare with Nestlé S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 630 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −55.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 18.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 9.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −0.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.14× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.42× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.0× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 74.63 CHF 59.51 −20%
Danone S.A BN €59.12 €50.65 −14%
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥33.93 ¥37.32 +10%
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $23.45 $29.20 +25%
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,363 ₹724.74 −47%
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥26.90 ¥41.84 +56%
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 ¥24.55 ¥9.98 −59%
General Mills, Inc GIS $31.67 $34.59 +9%
Wilmar International Limited F34 3.68 SGD 5.14 SGD +40%
Kerry Group KRZ €85.55 €59.96 −30%

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AAK AB · Fair Value
kr 95.63 −48%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AAK AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0A0J

Frequently asked questions

Is AAK AB (0A0J) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 95.63 versus a price of kr 182.15, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0A0J?
Our model-based fair value for AAK AB is kr 95.63 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 182.15.
What is the quality score of 0A0J?
AAK AB has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AAK AB (0A0J)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 95.63 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 66.94, optimistic scenario kr 124.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AAK AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 95.63, about −48% upside versus a price of kr 182.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 66.94, optimistic scenario kr 124.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AAK AB (0A0J)?
AAK AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 45.6B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does AAK AB pay a dividend?
AAK AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AAK AB (0A0J)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AAK AB it is kr 95.63 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 182.15. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AAK AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0A0J trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 182.15, fair value kr 95.63, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0A0J?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 182.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 95.63). For AAK AB the two are kr 86.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AAK AB worth?
The market values AAK AB at about 47.0B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 182.15; our models calculate a fair value of kr 95.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0A0J?
Our models span a range for AAK AB: cautious scenario kr 66.94, base kr 95.63, optimistic kr 124.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 182.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of AAK AB (0A0J)?
Balance-sheet figures for AAK AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.7%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0A0J from its 52-week high?
AAK AB trades at kr 182.15, about 32% below its 52-week high of kr 269.52 and 1% above the low of kr 180.90 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 95.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AAK AB?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AAK AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 182.15, calculated fair value kr 95.63 (−48%), Quality Score 56/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0A0J calculated?
We run AAK AB through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 95.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AAK AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AAK AB (0A0J)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 182.15. Our model-based fair value is kr 95.63, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AAK AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 124.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 66.94 to kr 124.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of AAK AB

How large is the market capitalisation of AAK AB (0A0J)?
The market capitalisation of AAK AB is 47.0B SEK (≈ $4.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AAK AB (0A0J)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AAK AB is 1.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of AAK AB (0A0J)?
The dividend yield of AAK AB is 3.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AAK AB (0A0J)?
The net margin of AAK AB is 4.1% (fiscal year 2021). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AAK AB (0A0J)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AAK AB is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AAK AB (0A0J)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AAK AB is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AAK AB (0A0J)?
The operating margin of AAK AB is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AAK AB (0A0J)?
Revenue at AAK AB is growing −0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AAK AB (0A0J)?
Earnings per share at AAK AB are growing +24.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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